Ukraine braces for renewed Russia offensive near Kharkiv
Moscow’s forces struck the city and 15 surrounding settlements with missiles, artillery and mortars on Thursday
4 January 2024 •
Ukraine is bracing for a renewed Russian offensivenear Kharkiv as Moscow ramps up its bombardment of the north-eastern city and the surrounding region.
Moscow’s forces struck the city and 15 surrounding settlements with missiles, artillery and mortars on Thursday, according to local officials.
Targets included both civilian buildings and military positions in what is seen as preparation for a large-scale offensive in the coming weeks, a source close to Ukraine’s armed forces said.
Kyiv has not released details of the attacks, but late on Wednesday the source said: “Pre-attack bombardments have been carried out all day at military sites around the region.”
Local military intelligence units believe Russian forces could be plotting to further ramp up aerial attacks this weekend to coincide with Christmas in Russia, which is celebrated on Jan 7.
The ground offensive could follow shortly after, with Jan 15 mooted as its possible start date, a source added.
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have been jostling for better positions along the front line that straddles the villages of Kupiansk, Svatove and Kreminna, close to the border of the Kharkiv region.
Moscow has concentrated its resources in the area in a bid to push towards the Ukrainian-held towns of Kreminna and Lyman, which were both occupied by Russian forces until Kyiv launched a lightning counter-offensive in September 2022.
Western analysts say that there has been little change in the front lines, which have remained largely static with Russian forces launching only sporadic attacks.
Ukraine’s general staff said that its forces had repelled three Russian attacks in the direction of Kupiansk, in a statement published on social media on Thursday.
“In the Lyman direction, the enemy did not conduct offensive actions,” the statement added.
But Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, the head of Ukraine’s ground forces, has warned that Russian forces are conducting glide bomb strikes while regrouping for another assault on Lyman.
He added: “Daily assaults by Russian troops continue near the settlement of Synkivka to create a bridgehead and further advance on the city of Kupiansk.”
Moscow has transported more armoured vehicles and artillery pieces to support the attempted advances of infantry groups, mainly made up of so-called “Storm Z” penal military units, Col Gen Syrskyi said.
Russian forces in the area have also been bolstered by better-trained reserves brought in from elsewhere on the battlefield.
Ukrainian officials have spent months preparing for an anticipated offensive in the direction of Kupiansk, where only a fraction of its original 26,000 population remains.
Military commanders in the north-east of Ukraine have described the area as one of the “hottest”, even when Kyiv’s forces were attempting a summer counter-offensive in the south.
The town, if captured by Russian forces, could serve as an important logistical springboard for offensive pushes farther south or west.
Meanwhile, Moscow has increasingly targeted central Kharkiv, a city that it failed to occupy at the start of its invasion in February 2022.
Ukraine’s second largest city has been subjected to almost daily ballistic missile attacks, with residential buildings and a five-star hotel frequented by journalists and aid workers among the targets.
One resident of the city, which is about 20 miles from the Russian border, described the shelling as having “got a lot worse” since the start of the year.
Overnight on Thursday, Russia launched two S-300 missiles against civilian targets, according to Oleh Syniehubov, the regional governor.
The day before, Russian forces struck Kharkiv with Iskander missiles, killing two people and injuring more than 60 more.
While Ukrainian air-defence units are believed to be stationed in the Kharkiv region, they are almost entirely useless against S-300 attacks.
The surface-to-air missiles have been reprogrammed for ground strikes, and because of the speed at which the projectiles travel across short distances, they are almost impossible to intercept.
“The enemy uses chaotic shelling in order to maintain tension and actually terrorise our local population,” Mr Syniehubov wrote on Telegram.
On Thursday night the White House warned that Russian talks to buy long-range missiles from Iran were “actively advancing” and that new munitions could soon be seen on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Releasing downgraded US intelligence, John Kirby, the White House’s national security coordinator, said that Russia “intends to purchase missile systems from Iran”, adding it had already deployed North Korean missiles against Ukraine.
Mr Kirby renewed calls for Congress to pass a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine to allow forces to counter Russian attacks with foreign-supplied weapons.
“Ukrainians deserve to know that the American people in this government will continue to stand with them, so it’s critical that Congress meets this moment and responds by providing Ukraine with what they need to defend themselves,” he said.
Selected DT readers’ comments:
Some excellent ones today:
Stephen Archer:
“Russia’s attacks in Avdiivka, south of Bahkmut and other areas are making small advances in meat grinder offensives. Where they employ heavy armaments, these are often taken out by Ukraine’s FPV-drones in numbers from 3 to 10. That doesn’t stop their meat advancing without support and being taken out by artillery. The question is how much Ukraine is losing at the same time, but it’s better at the moment to be on the defensive, just as long as they don’t lose strategic positions. Denys D and Reporting from Ukraine are giving good detailed reports on the front action with a reasonably objective stance and not sugar coating the Ukrainian status.”
Tony Vines:
“More Orcs being thrown into the meat grinder. Putin still can’t see that he is being boiled slowly like a frog by the West.”
Florian Danzinger
Reply to Tony Vines:
“Unfortunately much too slow. I’d rather have him incinerated.”
Paul Neczypir
“Having hollowed out Russia’s arms stockpiles, Ukraine is now going to have to do the same to those of Communist North Korea and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Has there ever been a greater service done to those of us in the free world than what the people of Ukraine are doing now?
They deserve every cent and penny which goes their way. An unprecedented bargain.”
Lily Blue
Reply to Paul Neczypir:
“They are an exceptional country.
You are right they deserve everything we have.”
James Horton:
“Noel Reports;
A massive kamikaze drone attack on Crimea is reported right now by Russian channels. Air defense is reportedly very active.
I have a feeling something is about to happen. Russian channels claim 50 air targets have already been shot down. Also a missile alert has been declared in Crimea. Ukrainian UAV’s are reportedly moving towards the Crimean bridge.
The attack has carried over into Russia, explosions in Novorossyisk… Also in Belgorod…
Kyiv in three days comrades!
Apparently something is happening in the Lipetsk region too, 300Km inside Russia…”
Lily Blue
Reply to James Horton:
“There is an air base there and training school.
Fingers crossed.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lipetsk_(air_base)
Valerie Newton:
Reply to Lily Blue
“Lily, my Ukrainian friend says Belbek military airfield has been bombed a couple of hours ago, big explosions.”
Lily:
“Thank you Valerie.
Sounds like really good news.”
Matt Forster:
“Reports tonight of Ukrainian attacks all over Crimea, including an attack on a command centre in Sevastopol when Gerasimov himself was visiting. If true that would be quite a feather in the Ukrainian cap.”
https://twitter.com/SimoHyh66764870/status/1742995880976810114?t=haxkYqQ3rz2TGPVvTZAQxQ&s=19
“Extensive Ukrainian action in Crimea and also in Belgorod again.”
https://t.me/noel_reports/6800
Graham Boyd:
“Are the reports that the Kremlin announced where Gerasimov was visiting, just a wind up?”
Lily Blue
Reply to Graham Boyd:
“Maybe they want him to sound like he’s personally manning the ramparts.
I hope so because someone may get the chance to finish the dead eyed toad.”
“Dead eyed toad.”
Thank you Lily. I like it!
Yes, as usual, some very good comments, Scradge.
Let’s be clear: Ukraine does not have the manpower to defend its vast country, let alone retake all the thieved land and hold it.
Apparently 500,000 are being mobilised. But that takes a hell of a long time to get them operational and in the field.
The situation is urgent. As stated before, Ukraine needs 100,000 mercs right now and the Budapest Signatories should pay for them. Start with the Peshmerga; great fighters. They blew away Isis scum and hate RuZZia.
Ukrainian diaspora: your time has come; volunteer. Ditto any men with military skills who fled to Europe. Those without military training should volunteer as auxiliary medics, logistics, IT specialists etc.
US/EU: provide $120 billion worth of military aid NOW. Stop pissing about and indulging Orban and the Magaputler shitheads FFS.
Don’t forget the Left, they are planning to scale down aid for Ukraine perhaps at the direction of the NYT. Use both eyes bro or you’ll only see half the picture and appear unfair, unreal and discredited.
Western leaders: Read this and ACT NOW:
Daily Telegraph:
Ukraine’s new year may end with a brutal Western betrayal
Spineless leaders are preparing to hand Putin victory
ROBERT CLARK
2 January 2024 •
Ukraine entered 2023 filled with hope. Its forces had just secured enormous battlefield and strategic victories, first at Kherson and then Kharkiv, recapturing much lost territory from the Russian invaders, and Western capitals seemed increasingly confident that victory could be at hand.
By the end of January, European and American leaders were no longer talking about whether to send Western main battle tanks, but how many and when. Britain led the charge, confirming that the formidable Challenger II would be sent to Ukraine, and putting intense diplomatic pressure on Washington and Berlin to follow London’s lead. Both duly buckled. With tanks secured, hopes were high for the coming counter-offensive.
The mood in 2024 is very different. The counter-offensive failed to deliver a decisive blow to Putin’s forces in the south. Russia’s economy has withstood Western sanctions, rapidly militarising to provide an ongoing stream of munitions to the front. Ukraine, meanwhile, is undergoing one of the largest aerial bombardments since the war began, and its united front is beginning to fray as conscription takes its toll.
Only a few short months ago, the stoic Ukrainian defenders were heralded by the West as defenders of the liberal values and freedoms we enjoy. Today, Western governments are now beginning to signal a lack of patience, and with it a lack of military and economic support to Kyiv.
To turn our backs now on the Ukrainian people, so swiftly after months of brutal fighting, is morally bankrupt and strategically negligent.
It is understandable, if not forgivable, that governments have begun questioning their levels of commitment to a deeply destructive war with no end in sight. At best there now appears to be a likely short to medium term stalemate across much of the 1,000 kilometre front line.
Meanwhile, Western economies and budgets are still grappling with recovery from the pandemic and last year’s energy shock. Global supply chains are still in flux, and as the Middle East flares up the Houthis are increasingly able to dictate the terms of trade and passage in the Red Sea, delivering another blow to a fragile global economy.
And the proverbial elephant in the Ukraine war room – a Republican administration potentially returning to the White House in twelve months-time – raises the spectre of a sudden stop to American funding. Even the current Biden administration has struggled with a mutinous Congress. In the EU, meanwhile, Viktor Orbán has been blocking the transfer of funds.
Together, these paint a bleak picture. The failed Ukrainian offensive, a stalemate across much of the front, a resurgent Russian state, and Western attention drifting away. Despite incremental military gains, Kyiv is in a far bleaker position than it was this time last year.
The situation is not hopeless. Ukraine is working to boost domestic production of weapons, reducing its reliance on the West. The seasonal change is marginally in its favour; it will be able to reinforce, defend and consolidate the territorial gains made in the last 12 months, while Russia struggles to make advances. And, of course, tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have received training overseas. Ukraine can use the lull in combat operations to work these units into coherent battalion and brigade formations – a noted operational weakness in previous offensives.
Moscow is preparing to allocate a full third of government spending to its war efforts. Kyiv will not win a war based on ‘out-shelling’ the Russians. Instead, it should prioritise air defence systems and counter-batteries, make the case for increased artillery from European stocks, and hold on to the ground it’s retaken.
If it can, Russia may find that attrition stops working in its favour. While it is out-producing Ukraine and the EU, its economy is increasingly focused on its war effort. Putin is banking on Western resolve breaking before Russia does. If we stand firm, we can deny him victory – and end his murderous regime. Otherwise, a Russian victory beckons, ending 2024 not only with the death of Ukrainian independence, but of any hope of European sovereignty.