In brief: Ukraine will continue long-range drone strikes on Russian oil refineries despite a commercial diesel agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the Financial Times reported. A senior Ukrainian official pledged that Kyiv “will burn [Russian] refineries,” while analysts at Kpler noted that Russian refining operates at just 60% capacity following Ukrainian attacks, casting doubt on Moscow’s ability to fulfill export pledges amid severe domestic shortages.

Oct. 10, 2026

Ukraine intends to press ahead with long-range drone strikes on Russian oil refineries despite a bilateral agreement between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to supply Russian diesel to US and international markets, the Financial Times reported.

A senior Ukrainian official dismissed US calls to halt operations against Moscow’s energy infrastructure, signaling that Kyiv will not adjust its asymmetric targeting strategy.

“We will burn [Russian] refineries,” the senior official told the Financial Times.

The vow comes as energy market analysts question Moscow’s physical ability to fulfill the commercial commitments announced by the White House, citing extensive degradation across the Russian petrochemical sector caused by repeated Ukrainian interdiction operations.

According to data cited by the Financial Times, Russian refineries are currently operating at approximately 60 percent of their installed capacity due to operational halts, emergency repairs, and equipment deficits resulting from Ukrainian strikes.

“The biggest question for me is: where are they going to get the diesel from?” said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at energy intelligence firm Kpler. “Russia does not have an export problem. It has a refining problem.”

Russian refining deficit

Industry data highlights the extent of the contraction across Russia’s downstream petroleum sector over the past year.

Prior to 2025, Russia exported an average of 2.6 million metric tons of diesel fuel per month by sea, according to Kpler records.

However, maritime shipments fell precipitously throughout 2026 as successive Ukrainian drone waves damaged primary distillation units, cracking facilities, and storage hubs across European Russia and western Siberia.

With domestic refining capacity constrained, the Kremlin enacted strict restrictions on petroleum product outflows in July, effectively prohibiting domestic diesel exports to prevent localized fuel deficits and inflation within the Russian domestic market.

Outside rare exceptional consignments, seaborne diesel exports have effectively ceased.

The Financial Times also noted that the US has historically accounted for a negligible share of Russian refined petroleum consumption.

Washington has not imported Russian diesel fuel since July 2022, following early sanctions enacted in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. During periods when American importers did purchase Russian diesel, volumes averaged approximately 77,000 metric tons per month, peaking at 210,000 metric tons in January 2022.

The Trump diesel pact

The dispute over refining strikes follows Trump’s announcement on Truth Social that Moscow had agreed to supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel immediately, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons thereafter.

Trump indicated that deliveries could scale up to 3 million tons within a short timeframe, though he acknowledged that shipments would depend on the condition of Russian refineries.

The US president claimed that the bilateral deal, alongside US naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, would quickly alleviate fuel costs for American consumers and global markets amid volatility fueled by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Following Trump’s announcement, the US Treasury Department issued a general license authorizing transactions involving Russian diesel fuel through April 7, 2027.

The regulatory exemption was granted only three weeks after Trump signed into law the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 on Sept. 18, which aimed to expand statutory penalties across Russia’s energy, banking, and defense sectors.

The sanctions waiver granted Moscow an economic accommodation it had sought since its July export ban, when Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov asserted that Russian fuel could ease international benchmarks only if granted unrestricted market access.

Trump has repeatedly urged Ukrainian officials to suspend strikes on Russian petroleum facilities, attributing high diesel benchmarks to Ukrainian interdiction rather than shipping disruptions in the Middle East.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/86666