By New Year’s, 20–25 regions in Russia may be in for a shock.

22.09.2026

On September 20, an oil refinery in Moscow was ablaze. Three days earlier, there had been an attack on the Yaroslavl oil refinery (the ninth this year). On September 6, the oil refinery in Ryazan took a serious hit.

These refineries serve the Moscow metropolitan area, home to over 22 million people. Fuel shortages in Moscow and the Moscow Region will intensify, which will negatively impact other regions from which fuel will have to be diverted.

This morning, the Kuibyshev Oil Refinery in Samara began emitting smoke; yesterday, there was some haze in Ufa. Let me remind you that Samara (3 refineries) and Ufa (3 refineries) are the cornerstones of Russian oil refining.

The next challenge awaiting our dear Russians is winter fuel. In just a month, this topic will become very relevant.

In short, there are grounds for a discussion about de-escalation on the eve of winter.

The experience of focusing attention on Moscow on September 20 showed that in just three days, Ukraine can amass enough weapons to overwhelm even the world’s most powerful air defense and missile defense system.

This means that, roughly speaking, once every three days (10 times a month), Ukraine could reduce some regional center in Russia to tatters.

The nuance is that, for Ukraine, the suffering of civilians in Russia is not an end in itself. That is why ordinary Russians fear Ukrainian drones far less than they fear Russian air defense. However, the Russian leadership’s ruthless approach will inevitably lead to reciprocal consequences.

Bottom line: theoretically, if the Kremlin turns out to be unprepared for de-escalation, around 20–25 regions in central Russia will be shaken up by the New Year…

https://charter97.org/en/news/2026/9/22/699317