September 22, 2026

US President Donald Trump is trying to negotiate with Minsk on large-scale purchases of Belarusian potash fertilizers, which should become a cheaper alternative to Canadian potash.

Content

1. Fuel and fertilizer prices are especially important for American farmers

2. Another problem is the US dependence on Canadian potash

3. Washington and Minsk are playing the “release prisoners – ease sanctions” scheme

4. Trump announced a big deal with Belarus

5. Lukashenko said that there is no free potassium for the US and is in no hurry to play along with Trump

However, Alexander Lukashenko stated that Belarus actually does not have enough potash for such supply levels. Resugram+ analysts explained why this story is important on the eve of the US midterm elections and why it creates an additional political problem for the White House.

Fuel and fertilizer prices are especially important for American farmers

The price per liter of petrol and diesel in London, March 5, 2026, photo: gettyimages

For any farmer or agricultural enterprise, fuel and fertilizer are among the key expenses. This is especially noticeable during the sowing and harvesting seasons, when costs for logistics, machinery, and agrochemicals increase significantly.

American farmers and rural residents are an important part of the Republican Party’s electoral base. At the same time, agriculture itself is under pressure from high costs in 2026. American media have already written about the dissatisfaction of some farmers due to rising fuel and fertilizer prices, trade uncertainty and other economic problems.

The fuel situation also remains difficult. On September 21, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States was about $4.48, and on September 17, the national average exceeded $4.43. At the same time, prices vary significantly by state.

Diesel is especially important for farmers, as it is widely used in agricultural machinery and trucks. In September, diesel prices in the US exceeded $6 per gallon, which is 1.5–2 times higher than before the start of the Trump presidency.

“Trump is actively trying to shift the responsibility for this onto Ukraine, rather than onto the consequences of his own failure in the Middle East, but that’s another topic,” analysts note. 

Therefore, any decisions that could potentially make energy or fertilizer cheaper become especially sensitive ahead of the November midterm elections.

Another problem is the US dependence on Canadian potash.

A separate issue is potash fertilizers. The United States is heavily dependent on potassium imports, with Canada being the main supplier. According to various estimates, Canada accounts for about 80% of American potash fertilizer imports.

Against this backdrop, the trade standoff between Washington and Ottawa creates additional uncertainty for American farmers.

“So the “genius” of Trump’s policies on the eve of the election hits the main sponsors and electoral base of Republicans – farmers and rural areas,” Resugram+ says.

That is why the Trump administration is trying to diversify supplies. The White House sees Belarus, one of the largest producers of potash fertilizers in the world, as one option.

However, a paradox arises here: Washington is simultaneously trying to reach an agreement with Minsk on the supply of potassium and is gradually easing sanctions against Belarusian enterprises related to fertilizers.

Washington and Minsk are playing the “release prisoners – ease sanctions” scheme

John Cole and Alexander Lukashenko, photo: president.gov.by

The rapprochement between the US and Belarus is not only happening around trade.

Throughout 2026, the Trump administration held negotiations with Alexander Lukashenko, in which the release of political prisoners was accompanied by the easing of US sanctions.

In March, Belarus released 250 prisoners. After that, Washington agreed to further ease sanctions, including on Belarusian potash fertilizer producers Belaruskali, Belarusian Potash Company, and Agrorozkvit.

On September 16, Minsk released another 25 people. In response, the United States agreed to ease sanctions on two Belarusian companies, Lakakraba and Bellespaperapram. Trump’s special envoy, John Cole, called it an interim agreement and a “gesture of goodwill.”

That is, Washington is actually continuing diplomatic bargaining with Minsk, in which the release of political prisoners becomes one of the elements of a broader agreement on sanctions and economic relations. Cole himself stated after the next agreements that the negotiations would continue.

“The White House continues to play a game of “catch-and-exchange” with the Belarusian dictator, where Lukashenko has virtually unlimited ability to replenish the number of political prisoners from his own population, who are then exchanged for the lifting or easing of sanctions against Belarus without any actual change or democratization of the current political regime,” the analysts explain.

Trump announced a big deal with Belarus

Against this background, on September 21, Donald Trump announced that the United States was working on a large-scale agreement to purchase potash fertilizers from Belarus.

The American president presented it primarily as an economic project that should help American farmers due to the lower price of fertilizers compared to Canadian supplies. Reuters also notes that Trump linked the agreement to the desire to reduce the US’s dependence on Canadian potash.

At first glance, the logic for Washington is clear: if Belarusian potash can indeed be purchased cheaper, this would potentially reduce the costs of American farmers.

But the very next day, a statement was issued from Minsk that cast doubt on the practical implementation of the agreement.

Lukashenko said that there is no free potassium for the US and is in no hurry to play along with Trump

photo: GettyImages

Alexander Lukashenko confirmed that Belarus is negotiating with the United States to resume supplies of potash fertilizers. At the same time, he stated that the country does not have any free volumes of products that could be additionally directed to the American market.

According to Lukashenko, even if Minsk would like to increase supplies to other Western markets, such volumes simply do not exist now – everything has already been contracted.

Thus, a rather uncomfortable situation has arisen for Washington: the US president publicly announces a future major deal that should provide American farmers with cheaper fertilizer, and the Belarusian leader almost immediately makes it clear that there may not be free resources for large-scale supplies.

This is where, according to the analyst, lies the main political moment of this story.

For Trump, the potential deal with Belarus is not just a foreign policy story. It is directly related to American farmers, for whom the cost of fertilizer is a practical economic issue.

Trump is already trying to show that his policies can provide American farmers with cheaper resources. However, if the agreement with Minsk is delayed or does not have real volumes of supplies, it will raise additional questions for Washington.

Especially considering that there is not much time left until the midterm elections in the US, and the economic situation in rural areas has already become a subject of political discussions.

“In fact, by doing this, Lukashenko is putting Trump before Republican voters and further intensifying criticism of the White House’s policy towards Lukashenko. Obviously, Trump wanted to get a “potassium deal” from Lukashenko in the last weeks before the elections, but the Minsk dictator is in no hurry and is not playing along with Trump,” Resugram+ notes.

It is important to note that Lukashenko may have a vested interest in such negotiations. Minsk is interested in further easing of sanctions, access to Western markets, and unfreezing of assets. Reuters reported that Lukashenko, in particular, raised the issue of more than $40 million in funds frozen in the American banking system.

Therefore, it is currently difficult to definitively say whether there really are no free volumes of potassium in Belarus, or whether Minsk is using the situation to strengthen its own negotiating positions.

But the fact remains: after Trump’s loud statement about the upcoming “grand deal,” it was Lukashenko who publicly cooled expectations for its rapid implementation. For the White House, this is especially sensitive on the eve of the elections, as it is an issue that directly affects one of the important groups of the American electorate – farmers.

Read also: US agreements with Lukashenko are the first step towards lifting sanctions on Belarus, and then Russia, — political strategist Podorozhny

• As a reminder, on September 21, Donald Trump announced that Washington is working on concluding a large-scale agreement to purchase potash fertilizers from Belarus. Earlier, on September 16, Minsk, following a visit by Trump’s special envoy John Cole, agreed to release 25 political prisoners. In return, the US will lift some sanctions against Belarus.

https://espreso.tv/viyna-z-rosiyeyu-lukashenko-ne-pidigrav-trampu-analitiki-poyasnili-chomu-istoriya-z-biloruskim-kaliem-mozhe-vdariti-po-prezidentu-ssha