09/22/2026

Ukraine is hitting Russian oil refineries as Zelensky prepares to meet Trump—and I explain why those strikes are a bargaining chip Ukraine cannot afford to surrender without something in return.

I examine Ukraine’s reported strikes on the Kuibyshev and Ufa refineries, reports that Moscow’s refinery has halted crude processing after an earlier attack, and Ukrainian strikes targeting Russia’s drone infrastructure. The strategic question is straightforward: why should Ukraine stop hitting Russian refineries while Russia continues attacking Ukraine’s electricity and energy supplies?

I also cover Russia’s overnight attacks, the reported destruction of a Ukrainian oil and gas facility, power outages ahead of winter, and the latest battlefield developments. I distinguish reported damage from uncertain estimates—including the claim about how much Russian refining capacity is offline.

Finally, I discuss drone warfare, an unconfirmed report of strikes on Russian FSB sites, and the former Russian mayor whose journey from a bribery conviction to the battlefield offers a grim illustration of this war.

My argument: any agreement to halt attacks on energy infrastructure must protect Ukraine’s energy system too. Pressure on Zelensky alone will not accomplish that.

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

• CHAPTERS
• 0:00 Trump, Zelensky, and Ukraine’s Refinery Leverage
• 0:37 Overnight Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia
• 0:55 Kuibyshev and Ufa Refineries Reportedly Hit
• 3:08 Russian Drone Sites and Air Defenses Targeted
• 4:12 Moscow Refinery Shutdown and Russia’s Fuel Problems
• 5:37 Russia’s Overnight Attacks on Ukraine
• 6:04 Ukrainian Oil and Gas Facility Devastated
• 6:45 Civilian Damage and Power Outages
• 7:52 Why an Energy Truce Must Protect Ukraine
• 8:35 Battlefield Update and Reported Russian Losses
• 9:45 Where Russia’s Autumn Offensive Could Develop
• 10:27 Drone Warfare and Strikes on Russian Logistics
• 11:31 Unconfirmed Reports of Strikes on FSB Sites
• 12:07 Convicted Russian Ex-Mayor Reportedly Killed in Ukraine
• 13:07 Viewer Comments: Trump, the AfD, and Operation Vivaldi
• 14:44 What Can the Trump–Zelensky Meeting Achieve?
• 15:08 Supporting Ukraine and a Historical Reminder

https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes