01/21/2025
On the eve of his inauguration, Trump once again promised to end the war in Ukraine. But the question is – on what terms.
If Trump allows Russia to take all the Ukrainian territories it has seized, without any consequences for it, America will definitely not be great again, as Trump wants. This will be America encouraging a coalition of its own enemies, which is formed from Russia, North Korea, Iran and China. Therefore, I think Trump will look for some kind of middle ground, the main thing for him is to achieve a ceasefire for a certain time, or rather until the end of his own presidential term. What happens next is not particularly interesting to Trump, writes Oleksandr Paliy for glavred.net.
Of course, Ukraine will not agree to such a ceasefire, which would be a respite for Russia before a new wave of its aggression.
In general, Trump demonstrates that he does not have the ideology of alliance, which has existed for a very long time between Europe and the United States. He can put an end to any alliances, which will benefit America’s enemies, which, by the way, are getting stronger today (we are not talking about Russia, because it is precisely Russia that is getting weaker). If America scares its friends and forgets those who helped it win the Cold War (in particular, about Ukraine, which was bringing the end of the Soviet Union closer), this will definitely not benefit it, and it will lose a lot.
However, I think that Trump will gradually understand all this. And even if he doesn’t understand something now, he will realize it very quickly.
You should not count on the US political system to restrain Trump, because, as it turned out, this American system of checks and balances is overrated. Everything is actually decided by the people. So, if Trump appoints people who are very loyal to him to key positions, he will be able to do anything. In essence, oligarchization will occur in America, and traditional democracy will end there.
Regarding the negotiations between Trump and Putin, which the new American president so desires, the main thing should be noted: Trump will not be able to impose on Ukraine what he will agree on with Putin. In other words, Trump will not be able to impose Ukraine’s capitulation, because this will be a domestic and foreign policy blow to himself. And, in addition, now Europe has come to life a little and has begun to care about security, and Ukraine has many allies there who will not allow our capitulation.
And what’s the point? Putin is a friend of all the enemies of the US who shout “Death to America!”: North Korea, Iran, etc. If Trump were to deal with an ally of his enemies, it would be nonsense.
So, in my opinion, there will be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine. Trump and Putin will discuss something and test the waters, but Ukraine will participate in the decision-making.
Today, it is too early to talk about what compromises Trump can persuade Russia and Ukraine to make, because all of this is just a draft. Most likely, Trump will understand during the negotiations that Putin is inadequate and an enemy of the United States, because he is friends with America’s enemies. After that, all these negotiations will collapse, and the United States will begin to supply Ukraine with weapons in no fewer quantities than it supplies now.
Of course, the US can completely stop military aid to Ukraine, but if this happens during the negotiations, it will be seen as playing on Russia’s side. Theoretically, this could be one of the means of putting pressure on our country, but it’s too early to talk about it.
Instead, Trump will pressure Russia with threats to lower oil prices and arms supplies to Ukraine.
Trump will try to freeze the war in Ukraine. He has often emphasized that he will insist on an immediate ceasefire. But he is unlikely to succeed in forcing Ukraine and Russia to stop shooting. But we cannot say for sure that there will be no ceasefire in 2025 – now the probability is 50/50.
Freezing the war is currently the most realistic scenario, but it can change at any moment: the war may resume, or there may be some kind of collapse in Russia, or Ukraine may strengthen thanks to the support of its European allies, or there may be a breakthrough in the development of military technologies.
The possibility of collapse in Russia is evidenced by the state of its economy – it is fading, and there is no prospect of correcting the situation. Even if sanctions against the Russian Federation remain at the current level, Russia still has no economic future. Russia produces nothing, has put the economy on military rails, so without war Putin will be stuck. He is interested in escalation, because each round of aggression prolongs his existence.
However, we’ll see.
Whatever the case, with Trump coming to power in the US, the world will become more chaotic.
Important: the editorial opinion may differ from the author’s. The editorial team of the site is not responsible for the content of the blogs, but strives to publish different views. More details about the editorial policy of OBOZREVATEL – follow
the link…
Either way, with war or without war, the splotch of vomit known as Vlad Putler is finished.
I don’t see how putler can claim any kind of victory against Ukraine. The orcs control 8% less territory than they did in 2022, they are fast running out of weapons and money. If Trump does capitulate to putler’s demands, the whole world will see it as a defeat for the US and Trump, and Trump would have nobody else to blame.
Does the man child realize this?
Who knows what he sees or thinks. With his hatred of Iran, you would think he would come down hard on mafia land now that they signed a defence agreement with the terrorist state.
The orange one has no capability to think in rational manner.
Trump knows Vladolf can’t stop fighting, that’s why he wants a ceasefire with a carrot on a stick. After Vladolf fails, Trump will have good reason to arm the shit out of Ukraine. Trump likes to win and he is in a good position to do so, despite all the tarot card readers, crystal ball interpreters, Ukraine dividers and TDS patients blathering.
But after 24 hours no peace……………………………
Nope.
“Most likely, Trump will understand during the negotiations that Putin is inadequate and an enemy of the United States, because he is friends with America’s enemies.”
No he won’t. He never criticises putler, he glorifies ruZZia and never loses an opportunity for sneering at Zel and Ukraine.
Any deal that leaves murderous putinaZi filth polluting Ukrainian land is pointless, stupid and an insult to all Ukrainians, especially the loved ones of the children murdered by the rat nazi.