7 November 2025
The fighting in Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, has become the main topic of news feeds, giving rise to a whole range of versions about what may happen to the city in the coming days. And every “marshal” who has access to social networks considers it his duty to express his assumptions about what the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should do. Against the backdrop of endless waves of IpsO coming from Russia (from rumors about the “encirclement” of the city to its complete control), we were missing something, and the recommendations of local and foreign experts. But what can we really expect in Pokrovsk?
More details about this can be found in the material of the joint project OBOZ.UA and the group “Information Resistance”.
Before considering three possible scenarios for the development of events – positive, neutral, and negative, I would like to immediately note that events in the city are developing extremely dynamically, and sometimes what we are talking about with you at this moment may no longer be relevant.
Let me give you the simplest example. Some time ago, it was announced that the number of Russian occupiers who had infiltrated Pokrovsk was 200 people. By the time this information began to spread in the news, their number was already a little more than 150, as harsh purges had been carried out in several areas. But by the time they started talking about the successful neutralization of several Russian infiltration groups, there were already about 300 occupiers in the city.
Another striking example is that Russian media and even some Ukrainian platforms reported that the ROV controlled the city center, but less than a week later, fighters from the 425th OSH “Skelya” cleared the city council building.
These are just a few examples of how unpredictably and dynamically the situation in Pokrovsk is changing, so no information can be absolutely reliable. Except for the scenarios that may await the city in the near future.
Scenario one – positive
It consists of carrying out successful stabilization actions in the northern and central parts of the city, along the M-30 highway or Zakhisnyky Ukrainy Street.
The fact is that the stable zones of control of the Russian occupation troops can be called Leontovychi, the private sector along Pryvilna Street, the Lazurny and Pivdenny neighborhoods. Enemy entrenchments are also recorded on Anastasia Zaslavska Street and on the ruins of “Ukrbud”, as well as between Volontsya and Mykola Lysenko Streets in the center.
The rest of Pokrovsk is not a zone of control, but rather an infiltration zone for Russian DRGs, whose task is to disperse as deeply and as widely as possible throughout the city, even trying to avoid direct combat clashes.
Stabilization actions may result in the occupiers having limited infiltration routes into the city that are under fire control of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, and the groups remaining in Pokrovsk will be systematically and methodically cleared.
The main line of combat clash in Pokrovsk will be considered M-30, but it is noteworthy that, despite the control zones of the ROV in the Lazurny and Pivdenny areas, the presence of Ukrainian units there also remains. That is, part of the area, especially adjacent to Yuvileynaya and Volodymyrskaya streets, is controlled by the enemy, but they have not managed to gain a foothold deeper. Therefore, for a positive scenario, it would also be possible to consider conducting sweeps south of M-30, which is quite real, but I will not be too hopeful about positive prospects.
The raid conducted the day before by the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine made it possible to significantly improve the situation of the Pokrovsky garrison in the northwest, and units of the SSO and the SBU are conducting targeted operations to clear the enemy.
The main thing is not only that the city is not surrounded, but also that, despite the severity of the situation and the intensity of the fighting, Pokrovsk continues to be controlled by the SOU, and the calls to withdraw troops, which are heard from wise speakers, should have been identified long ago as the spread of panic and outright betrayal.
https://t.me/uaobozrevatel/195141
Scenario two – neutral
After the landing of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s GUR landing force in the north-west of Pokrovsk, the situation in the area of the industrial zone, the “Electrodvigun” and “Buddetal” factories improved significantly. This made it possible to conduct a series of successful sweeps in the northern part of the city and Dynas.
In fact, if we consider a neutral scenario, in the event of the loss of the central part of the city, the northern districts – behind the railway – may remain a strong base.
As strange as it may sound, a railway is a very difficult artificial obstacle for conducting assault operations. And in Pokrovsk, it is a multi-track railway – a transport hub, which, with sufficient fire control, will allow this obstacle to be used as a long-term air defense.
In addition, this will allow us to maintain physical control over the H-32 highway, also known as Ivan Mazepa Street, which plays an important role in securing Myrnograd.
Thus, the neutral scenario does not imply the return of SOU control over one or another part of Pokrovsk, but implies maintaining control over the northern part of the city, as well as securing the Myrnograd garrison, for which the fighting has not even fully begun yet, but this will inevitably happen in the near future.
Scenario three – negative
The negative scenario is a complete loss of control over the city. I will say that it is currently unlikely (as is the ultimate positive one – where the SOU regains control even over the southern part of Pokrovsk), but it is still possible in the short term.
The loss of control over Pokrovskoe is in fact the fall of Myrnograd, because without the logistics of the H-32 and T-05-15, the Myrnograd garrison will not be able to survive. And this is the saddest thing, because the battles for Myrnograd have not even really begun yet. And if this happens, then the city, which could exhaust the enemy for months, will have to be abandoned without a serious fight.
But after the fall of Pokrovsk and Myrnograd, opportunities opened up for the ROV to expand its areas and strengthen the existing ones.
First, they will definitely strengthen the ranks of the 51st OVA, quite possibly at the expense of units of the 2nd OVA, to put pressure on the Dobropil direction.
Second, support will be provided to the 8th OVA in the Kostyantynivka direction and an attempt will be made to completely close the issue with the Kleban-Bytskyi reservoir.
Thirdly, a new route may be opened – to Druzhkivka.
This is the minimum of the negative consequences that the loss of Pokrovsk and Myrnograd could entail. And despite the fact that defense lines, borders, and fortified areas have been formed behind Pokrovsk, it would be much more effective to slow down and exhaust the enemy on the outskirts of the city or in urban conditions.
Conclusion
In my opinion, all of the scenarios voiced have every right to be implemented in the short term. Some to a greater extent, some to a lesser extent.
But the fact is undeniable – despite the severity of the situation in Pokrovsk, it is not an irreversible apocalyptic process. There is no encirclement of the city, logistics are under fire control of the ROV, but not physical, and the enemy’s presence in the city is not so critical as to speak of a loss of control over Pokrovsk and call for the withdrawal of troops from there. I repeat, whoever calls for this in the current situation (which will automatically entail the loss of Mirnograd) is clearly acting in the interests of the enemy, spreading panic.
In Pokrovsk, both the DRG ROV and the SOU units are simultaneously present, sometimes neighboring on a quarterly basis. And the Ukrainian army is gradually but surely adapting to the new tactics of small groups of infiltration of the occupiers.
Pokrovsk has been holding its defense for over a year and has repeatedly thwarted the plans of the Russian command and the deadlines of the top Russian leadership. The ROV command has concentrated over 150 thousand personnel in the entire Pokrovsk direction. And yet, they still cannot implement the tasks set within the established deadlines.
In Pokrovsk, the Dobropillya scenario may well be realized, when the 51st OVA attempted to implement a deep breakthrough, but the timely reaction of the Ukrainian Defense Forces led to the deep sinking of this army to the bottom along with its commander. Let’s believe that the 2nd OVA will follow this example.
“But the fact is undeniable – despite the severity of the situation in Pokrovsk, it is not an irreversible apocalyptic process.”
It won’t be an irreversible and apocalyptic process, even if the town falls. The all important thing is that the roaches pay a very high price for it, which they are. Ukraine is demolishing the mafia economy, and it takes times to do it, since the West cannot or doesn’t want to. So, the concept is to trade land for masses of roach losses while whittling their economy down to bare bones. This has and continues to be the strategy.
Would still be nice to stick it to the orcs
I hear you, Sir Cap. Maybe not now, but the day of reckoning will come.