According to him, Putin does not have confidence in the security forces around him, so he cannot order the use of nuclear weapons.

The elite of the Russian security forces understands that the war against Ukraine is actually lost, which is why Russian President Vladimir  Putin does not order them to use nuclear weapons, because he understands that they may not comply with the order and this will become a trigger for a coup.

 Hristo Grozev, an investigative journalist from the international group Bellingcat , spoke about this  in a commentary to Radio Liberty.

“I think that it is the informed elite within the security forces who understand that the war is lost. Because the war was documented as something that needs to be finished within one week. What is happening now is some kind of “second” war that has not yet been lost before the end. But the first is already lost. That’s for sure. The chance of winning the second war is also not guaranteed. We see forecasts that cannot be called optimistic from the Russian point of view, from those who are sufficiently informed and can express their opinion more freely, “Grozev explained

According to him, the elite of the security forces believe that there are very few ways to win the war without mobilization, but Putin does not declare it because of the likelihood of a social explosion.

“And there is pessimism among the security forces about how to get out of this,” the journalist said.

In his opinion, if Putin gives the order to use nuclear weapons, then one of the executors will refuse to do so. This is because among the security forces there is no certainty whether the President of the Russian Federation will be in power in three months and whether he will be able to protect them.

“This refusal will be a trigger, most likely, a coup d’etat, because after the refusal of even one of this pyramid of responsibility to carry out the order of the tsar, everything will go down very quickly. In order for Putin to decide to give an order to use nuclear weapons, he must be sure that everyone in the chain will comply order. For he understands that even if one of the five who must consistently press the buttons does not follow the order, this will be a signal of disobedience and, possibly, even the physical death of himself, “Grozev explained.

“Therefore, until he (Putin – ed.) is sure that everyone will comply, he will not give this order. And why does he think or can he think that someone will not follow the order? This is the very feeling inside the security forces that not everything is clear: whether Putin will be in power in three months. Therefore, they cannot accept guarantees from him that he will guarantee their safety,” the investigative journalist added.

He also sees the greatest protest potential among the best-informed security officials.

(C)UNIAN 2022