19.08.2026
Last week, the International Analytical Agency (IAEA) released data on the Russian Federation. Exports of oil and petroleum products from the Russian Federation in July amounted to 6.97 million barrels per day (bpd), which is 630 thousand bpd less than in the previous month and 420 thousand bpd below the level of July 2025.
Minimizing the export of petroleum products from the Russian Federation led to a change in the strategy of the Russians, who tried to compensate for the zeroing of fuel exports from the Russian Federation with increased volumes of oil exports. As the IEA statistics show, in July they failed.
Of course, the weakening of exports from the Russian Federation in July will lead to negative consequences for the federal and regional Russian budgets. The situation explains why the “grandfather in a cap” fled all the way to Sakhalin and from there threatened the Europeans with revenge for the seizure of “Russian” ships with oil.
Disruptions in Russian oil traffic will lead to even greater losses for the Russian budget. That is why not only the price of Russian oil below $45 per barrel, but also a scenario with a sharp reduction in physical exports of oil and oil products from the Russian Federation can stop the war.
The strikes on the refineries proved to be very painful for the Kremlin, not only because of the budgetary component. Putin’s team is rapidly losing its influence on Central Asia and Mongolia, which were buyers of Russian fuel, and where the fuel crisis is also currently being felt. The only exception was Kazakhstan, which took care of having its own refineries in the country. In addition to the geopolitical impact, the fuel crisis has already affected the relations of the federal center with the regions of the Russian Federation. Little Putin’s big plan was that the Russian Federation would decongest fuel reserves by 1.7 million tons at the height of seasonal demand, and then the market would support fuel from India and Morocco.
The trick didn’t work, imported fuel got stuck in Murmansk. The federal government was going to introduce a damper on imported fuel back in July, but probably after miscalculating the budget deficit in July, this decision was suspended.
As a result, imports got stuck in Murmansk, because without a damper, its price for the end consumer would be up to 200 rubles per liter.
However, if this continues, then the mark of 200 rubles per liter is a very real prospect for Russians. Last week, Rosstat pleased them with a decrease in the growth rate of gasoline prices from 6.88% to 6.47%, and this in a month. Russians themselves note that Rosstat statistics on gasoline prices have long since broken away from reality and 130 rubles per liter for the regions has long been nothing new.
The Russian government’s statements regarding the fuel shortage are full of confusion. I think the relevant Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian government, Novak, understands very well that in August the intensity of Ukrainian attacks on refineries will not decrease, and may even increase.
However, a real catastrophe loomed on the horizon, which would happen if good Ukrainian drones visited the storage facilities of imported fuel in Murmansk.
I see it coming again. The Dems shooting themselves, again. An example in the Florida Senate primary the Dems decide to vote for a Democratic Socialist, a hard left, IMO a nut job, instead of electing Vindman a moderate by any standards and the guy who challenged Trump and was one of the reasons Trump was impeached the first time. The polling for Florida moved from likely Republican to solid Republican after the primary. Here we go again. Might just as well put Kamala back on the ticket. Politicians are just morons.