Iryna Nesterova 08:46, 20.09.26 UNIAN

In fact, Russian troops captured only 147.7 sq. km in 2026, analysts say

Russia is vastly exaggerating the scale of its military advances on the front line, attempting to mislead domestic and international audiences about its battlefield successes, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts recalled that on September 19, in the midst of the elections to the Russian State Duma and shortly before the convening of the UN General Assembly, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that since the beginning of 2026, Russian troops had captured more than 5,300 sq. km and more than 220 settlements in Ukraine, including more than 670 sq. km and 27 settlements in September alone.

“ISW has obtained evidence that allows us to estimate that in 2026, Russian forces captured only 147.7 sq. km and 40 settlements, and lost a total of 20 settlements. Taking into account areas where the Russian military was able to penetrate but does not control, the total area of ​​Russian gains this year is 718.8 sq. km, which is still significantly less than stated by the Russian Ministry of Defense,” the analysts say.

They also assured that they have evidence that allows them to estimate that Ukrainian troops liberated at least 972.56 sq. km and 60 settlements in 2026. Read also:

ISW explained that the Russian Defense Ministry’s statements of September 19 “are part of a long-standing Kremlin effort to use exaggerated battlefield progress data to convince Ukraine and its partners that Ukrainian defenses are collapsing and that Ukraine must surrender in the face of Russia’s supposedly inevitable victory.”

Analysts also expressed the opinion that these Russian statements “are the result of a culture of widespread lies in the Russian army.” As they write, Ukrainian troops “have been successfully repelling both the strategic and operational initiative since late 2025, holding Russian troops at almost zero levels since March 2026 and conducting successful counterattacks that liberated a significant part of the territory in the Kupyansk, Oleksandrivsk, and Lymansk directions.”

The situation in the Lymansky direction

The Russian Defense Ministry on September 19 attempted to deny Ukraine’s successes in the Liman direction, responding to a large number of reports by Ukrainian officials and Russian military bloggers about Ukraine’s successes north of the Liman in recent months. In particular, the Russian military department stated that the Western Group of Russian troops was successfully conducting combat operations in the Liman direction, while Ukraine was spreading lies about this part of the battlefield. 

The Russian Defense Ministry said that small Ukrainian assault groups in the area were reportedly trying unsuccessfully to break through Russian defenses, and even hinted that Russian troops had advanced much further northwest of Liman. According to the Russian version, their army was advancing to capture Oskil, Krymki, and Studenok. 

However, according to ISW, Ukrainian forces have largely leveled the front line along the Zherebets River north of Liman, leaving Oskil, Krymky, and Studenok between 22 and 37 km from the current estimated front line of Russian forces. 

Russia also lied that its troops were clearing Liman and Svyatogorsk, claiming that they already controlled these cities. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin also claimed that Svyatogorsk had been captured on September 1. But, analysts say, the Ukrainian military recently completely denied this.

Even in Russia they lie 

“The statements of the Russian Ministry of Defense are likely aimed at shaping the perception of the war by Russian voters during the current State Duma elections, as well as the perception of foreign governments that support Ukraine,” ISW said. 

Analysts called this statement anomalous, saying that the Russian Ministry of Defense usually does not highlight the successes of its army without any reason:

“This publication is part of a broader Kremlin effort to promote the narrative that Russian forces are maintaining the initiative on the battlefield and advancing at a high pace, in order to convince Russians to accept the ever-increasing costs of Putin’s war.” 

The Institute for the Study of War also considers the statements of the Russian Ministry of Defense to be “a defensive response to the growing chorus of Russian military bloggers, who have a large following in Russia, regarding Ukraine’s successes in the Lyman direction.” 

According to analysts, this Kremlin information campaign is especially important in the context of the current elections to the Russian State Duma, which are taking place on September 18-20, “as the Kremlin is trying to position the United Russia party as the party of victory in Ukraine and is presenting the elections as a referendum on the war.”

“This Russian information operation is likely also aimed at convincing Western audiences of the futility of supporting Ukraine just before the annual sessions of the UN General Assembly, which will be held from September 21 to 28,” ISW suggested.

The situation in Donbas

As UNIAN reported, in 2026, Ukraine, starting in May, carried out the most important attack of the year in the Lyman area – it cut off the occupied “salient” above the city and potentially recaptured up to 199 sq. km of territory. 

It recently became known that Ukraine liberated a settlement in Donbas from the occupiers. This is the village of Seredne, Kramatorsk district. According to analysts of the Ukrainian monitoring project DeepState, the Ukrainian military also prevented the enemy from advancing near Shandryholovy in the Lymansky district of the Donetsk region and pushed them back.

https://www.unian.ua/war/u-rf-vigadali-shcho-zahopili-shche-5300-kv-km-v-ukrajini-v-isw-vikrili-brehnyu-okupantiv-13504617.html#goog_rewarded