22 July 2026
Oil product production in Russia continues to decline rapidly. In June, it fell by another 12%, dropping 21.7% from a year ago, according to Rosstat’s industrial production report . For the first half of the year, the decline was 7.7%.
The current collapse in petroleum product output is the most severe since at least 2006, according to Rosstat data . In April, coke and petroleum product output was 9.2% lower than last year, and in May, it was 13.5%.
The collapse in production has led to fuel shortages at gas stations and a price hike. Over the past week (July 14–20), gasoline prices rose by 1.7% and diesel fuel by 1.9%, Rosstat reported . Since the beginning of the year, these prices have risen by 18.3% and 20.2%, respectively.
The shortage has forced Russia to switch to importing gasoline and diesel fuel and extending tax breaks to imported fuel. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak speaks of a “partial stabilization” of the fuel market, but even the military has begun to restrict the refueling of its combat vehicles.
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure intensified in late March, knocking out up to 40% of diesel production capacity. Sergey Aleksashenko, a leading expert at the NEST analytical center, estimated the lost oil refining capacity based on data on exchange sales of petroleum products by Russian refineries (until July, they were required to sell 15% of their production on the exchange; the current standard is 10%). In June, sales were 50-70% of last year’s levels, suggesting a potential loss of approximately 35% of capacity. For example, the Ryazan Refinery, which has been attacked 15 times, has not participated in exchange trading since mid-May, while the Moscow Refinery is selling approximately half as much as it did a year ago.
In July, Ukrainian drone attacks continued, damaging, among other things, the country’s largest oil refinery in Omsk. Only about half of the refinery’s capacity, damaged in recent months, was restored to service. According to Kpler, refining volumes at Russian refineries fell to a 21-year low in mid-July. According to its calculations, a total of 58% of Russian refining capacity had been attacked over the year, and as of mid-July, 20-27% remained idle.
Take all this figures with a truck load of salt………………………
Like always.