Putin will fold in a game of nuclear poker, says Trump’s Ukraine negotiator

Lt-Gen Keith Kellogg describes the Russian leader as a ‘manipulator’, saying ‘the only thing to counter that is strength, power and force’

Lt-Gen Keith Kellogg (left) was interviewed by Lord Ashcroft at a secret location in Kyiv

19 September 2025

The location for my meeting with Lt-Gen Keith Kellogg, a decorated war hero turned skilled diplomat, felt more like a scene from a James Bond film than an interview room.

Chosen by his security staff, the entrance was hidden beneath an unassuming city-centre bar, accessible only by a password. On arrival, I was led to a dimly lit basement where I was ushered behind a dark curtain.

Waiting for me was the three-star army general, a Vietnam and Gulf War veteran who, as a key adviser to US President Donald Trump, has been tasked with trying to bring peace to war-torn Ukraine.

Here in Kyiv, Gen Kellogg is feted by most Ukrainians, so much so that there are a host of cartoons and memes portraying him as a great protector because Russia has, so far at least, not bombed the city while he has been visiting.

The general, calm and welcoming, yet unmistakably firm, spoke to me of Ukraine and its people with warmth and compassion. His piercing eyes revealed something else – strength, conviction and an unshakeable moral compass.

For Keith Kellogg is a man driven by principle. He also holds a uniquely powerful position, and he uses it to pursue peace while standing “on the side of good, fighting pure evil”.

During my interview with Gen Kellogg, I saw strength, conviction and an unshakeable moral compass
During my interview with Gen Kellogg, I saw strength, conviction and an unshakeable moral compass

After speaking with him for an hour, I felt something that has been rare in recent times: a renewed sense of hope that the United States has not abandoned Ukraine. With people like Gen Kellogg guiding the course, the international rules-based order and the security of future generations seem in capable hands.

Today, the general’s two official roles are assistant to Mr Trump and special presidential envoy for Ukraine. The president had wanted him to be special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, but Russia – effectively President Vladimir Putin – objected to the latter role. “I took it as a compliment. They realised I’m not going to roll over,” he said with a smile.

It was not long into our interview that I realised why perhaps the Russian dictator had taken his stand. “Putin is a KGB agent,” the general said.

“He never stopped being one. He doesn’t understand the West. He pretends not to speak English, but he does, and we have caught him out several times before. He’s a manipulator. The only thing to counter that is strength, power and force.”

The retired general serves in two official roles: assistant to President Trump and special presidential envoy for Ukraine
The retired general serves in two official roles: assistant to President Trump and special presidential envoy for Ukraine Credit: Susan Walsh/AP

Asked whether he agreed with suggestions last week by Mike Pence, the former US vice-president, that if Russia conquered Ukraine, it would move on to attack a Nato country, Gen Kellogg did not hesitate to respond.

“Absolutely. You have to look at Putin and Russia as an expansionist power. He wants to re-establish the Russian Empire – just look at history. Give him an inch, he’ll take a mile.

“It reminds me of World War Two. In Munich in 1938, Hitler said that he only wanted the Sudetenland. Then the Rhineland, then Poland, then we were in the Second World War. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme. That’s exactly what’s happening here with Ukraine. We must stop him now.”

Vladimir Putin
The general says: ‘Putin is a KGB agent. He never stopped being one’Credit: MIKHAIL METZEL/AFP via Getty Images

I asked Gen Kellogg, whom I had met briefly in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad in 2004 after the Second Gulf War, whether he thought Putin should face trial as a war criminal.

He replied: “That’s for The Hague to decide. I believe in fair trials. If he’s convicted, then he should be held accountable, but frankly, I don’t expect him to get there. It has been disappointing to see many nations giving him a pass.”

Gen Kellogg believes the firing of 19 unarmed drones by Russia into Poland last week was deliberate. “If it had all happened at once, maybe you could call it an accident. But six hours of drones? That’s a test – a way to see what the West would do. And we have to respond like it’s a test.”

He also believes that Putin’s aggressive boasts of being a strong nuclear power must be confronted, not shied away from. For context, he gave an example of Mr Trump’s talks with Kim Jong-un.

“When the North Korean told him that they were a nuclear power, Trump’s response was, ‘So am I. I’ve got a red button too. It’s bigger than yours and mine works better’. Putin is a realist and if you raise the stakes, he’s going to fold.”

Russia’s new alliances with China, Iran and North Korea, Gen Kellogg warned, posed a threat to the global community, not just the US. “Before, we kept them separated, but now they’ve all raised their heads. We haven’t had a good plan yet to react to that.”

As for future improved US-Russia relations, he said: “It will have to be post-Putin. Until Russia rejoins the league of good nations, it remains a pariah.”

Russia's President Vladimir Putin walks with China's President Xi Jinping and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un
Gen Kellogg warned that Russia’s new alliances with China, Iran and North Korea posed a threat to the global community, not just the US Credit: SERGEY BOBYLEV/AFP via Getty Images

I suggested many Ukrainians were losing faith after Mr Trump had given Putin at least four two-week deadline “or else” type warnings, and had then done little or nothing to back them up.

Is Trump’s unwanted nickname of “Taco” – “Trump Always Chickens Out” – a fair one?

Gen Kellogg bristled. “No, that’s not fair. Trump’s trying to give diplomacy every chance. When he said he could stop the war in 24 hours, he was aiming for legacy. He quickly realised it’s harder than expected – personalities matter. Ukrainians are ready for a deal but Putin isn’t.

“He [Putin] is being misled. He unfortunately thinks that he is winning this war, but he isn’t. So, Trump is just giving him latitude and the time to come to the negotiating table, but we still hold the cards.”

When asked whether Ukraine would have to give up some of its territory for peace, the general stressed that any such decisions were Ukraine’s alone.

“Trump isn’t trading on Ukrainian land. That’s Zelensky’s mandate. Nobody else’s call. But let’s be realistic: Donetsk is 65 per cent occupied. Luhansk is at 98 per cent. You have to accept reality. De facto doesn’t mean de jure. Let’s go back to history again.

“We never recognised Soviet control of the Baltics, even though de facto they were part of the USSR. That was upheld in line with the Welles doctrine. The same applies here.”

Gen Kellogg referred to the Welles Declaration of 1940 – a diplomatic statement by then secretary of state Sumner Welles that refused to recognise the Soviet Union’s forced annexation of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, upholding the principle of non-recognition of territorial changes by force.

This policy protected the economic assets of the Baltic states and aimed to facilitate their return to independence after the end of the occupation.

Gen Kellogg urged Ukraine to take long-term perspective. “Sometimes, short-term reality doesn’t match your goal. You may have to acknowledge occupied territory now, but over the long term, it can be recovered. Play the long game.”

So which of the general’s many previous roles had best equipped him for this one?

“All of them,” he said. “You don’t get shaped by one day or one assignment. It’s cumulative. Vietnam, the Gulf, the White House – each one is a building block. By the time you reach the White House, you realise there are no blocks above you. You are the last block. The responsibility is immense, and you’d better be ready to go.”

Mr Trump’s critics see his other key advisers, including Steve Witkoff, the US’s special envoy for peace missions, as too pro-Russian, but the general spoke well of him.

“Steve is a personal friend of Donald Trump, and he’s got personal ties with Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s economic guy. That’s his lane. I stick to mine. We’re side by side in offices, both in the White House and in the department of state, and we co-ordinate constantly. It’s a very harmonious relationship.”

The 44th Separate Artillery Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fires a 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops near a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine
Gen Kellogg urged Ukraine to take a long-term perspective: ‘You may have to acknowledge occupied territory now, but over the long term, it can be recovered’ Credit: Maksym Kishka/Reuters

Gen Kellogg sees himself as an optimist and he believes a peace deal can and will be achieved. However, unlike Mr Trump, he would prefer to see a ceasefire before the detailed peace negotiations.

He was clear on the sequence: “Without a ceasefire, it’s very hard to achieve peace. The problem is, Putin thinks he’s winning, so he won’t agree to peace yet. Trump prefers peace talks first. I prefer stopping the shooting first, as once it stops, it’s hard to restart it.”

As for the president’s frustration with the slow peace process? “[He’s] Aggravated. He thought his personal relationship with Putin would deliver results. Instead, Putin strung him along. Behind closed doors, President Trump is much angrier than in public.”

Because he is so trusted and admired by Ukrainians, Gen Kellogg could find himself in a difficult position if Mr Trump proposes a firm peace deal that is unacceptable to Ukraine. However, the general told me unequivocally that only Ukraine, not an outside party, can make decisions on the concessions made in any peace deal.

The general believes that Russian casualties in Ukraine – dead and wounded – exceed one million. “That’s staggering. Russia doesn’t care about human life. The public doesn’t either. That’s what’s terrifying. This is a nation that lost 68,000 dead in Stalingrad [in 1942-3] and did not blink an eye.”

A Russian serviceman installing a red flag on the roof of a damaged building in a village in Kursk
A Russian serviceman installing a red flag on the roof of a damaged building in a village in Kursk Credit: RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY PRESS SERVICE HANDOUT/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

As for the next front in this three-and-a-half-year all-out war, the general said: “Putin will definitely seek to seize the totality of Donetsk and Luhansk. The southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia may be next. But from what we’ve seen so far, they can only be taken inch by inch, and casualties will be enormous.”

The general, aged 81, is convinced that Europe is better equipped to stand on its own than before. “Trump’s view has changed compared to his first term. European leaders now see Russia as an existential threat, whereas before they were dependent on its gas. Trump’s relationship with current leaders like Germany’s Friedrich Merz or Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is much better than that with their predecessors. Nato members spend more on defence.

“That unity is real. We only have to look at the post-Alaska summit Sunday call with the European leaders when they were all in DC on Monday. Within 24 hours, the global leaders put everything aside to be in the Oval Office to discuss the future of Europe. Exceptional. Putin misjudged it.”

Gen Kellogg said that Europe should prepare to support Ukraine without America in future. “Better to be prepared. I don’t think America will withdraw fully, but it’s best that Europe stands on its own two feet. At this point, Europe is almost self-sufficient in sustaining Ukraine’s war effort through the cohesion we haven’t seen before.”

‘I always go for the throat’

At the end of our interview, I quoted Gen Kellogg’s book War by Other Means, where he says that foreign policy is itself a form of warfare, one that demands clarity, toughness, and strategy. So, who is winning that war today?

“The West is winning. It has better ideas, and we are cohesive. But the danger remains,” he replied.

As for his frustrations with the Washington elite? “They act like politicians, not soldiers. At the edge, do you go for the throat or do you fold? I always go for the throat. Many in Washington wouldn’t.”

As a brief aside, I asked Gen Kellogg about Britain’s decision, taken by the Labour Government, to give up the Chagos Islands, and he suggested it was a strategic mistake. “Don’t give up land if you don’t have to. God doesn’t make more. Once you retrench, it’s hard to go back.”

Gen Kellogg is a married man with three adult up children, one of whom, former paratrooper Meaghan Mobbs, is also a regular visitor to Ukraine, where she carries out humanitarian work. “She’s very attached to Ukraine,” he said. “It’s not just [family] loyalty. It’s who she is.”

Ultimately, it is easy to understand why people in Ukraine and elsewhere both like and admire Gen Kellogg, because he finds it impossible to disguise whose side he is on in the war, suggesting it is a straight fight between aggressor and victim.

Asked what he hopes his legacy will be, he said simply: “I hope people remember ideals. I fought to keep the faith in those ideals. This conflict is moral. It’s good versus evil. Putin is evil. If Ukraine comes out strong, then I can rest easy knowing I fought the good fight.”

Lord Ashcroft is a businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster

5 comments

  1. “Is Trump’s unwanted nickname of “Taco” – “Trump Always Chickens Out” – a fair one?”

    Gen Kellogg bristled. “No, that’s not fair. Trump’s trying to give diplomacy every chance. When he said he could stop the war in 24 hours, he was aiming for legacy. He quickly realised it’s harder than expected – personalities matter. Ukrainians are ready for a deal but Putin isn’t.

    “He [Putin] is being misled. He unfortunately thinks that he is winning this war, but he isn’t. So, Trump is just giving him latitude and the time to come to the negotiating table, but we still hold the cards.”

    Hmmn, that sounds like his loyalty to his boss has blinded him from the truth.
    And despite his daughter being a good friend of Ukraine, Captain Cornflake certainly isn’t, as his terrible surrender document; “America First”, proves.
    In fact putler’s surrender terms are only a slight tweak of what Cornflake already proposed.

  2. A filthy kremtroll has responded, with quotes from some of the most vile putinoid scum on the current kremtroll scene :

    Jack Sarfatti

    Analysis of Criticisms of General Keith Kellogg’s Competence as Trump’s Advisor
    Ambassador Charles Freeman (former U.S. diplomat)
    Dismisses Kellogg’s ideas as “crazy,” particularly regarding nuclear escalation risks in Ukraine policy.
    Colonel Douglas Macgregor (retired U.S. Army officer)
    Strongly critical: Views Kellogg as lacking credibility, pushing escalation, and eroding U.S.-Russia trust. Calls his ideas “insane” and “immensely stupid,” potentially leading to global war. Believes Kellogg feeds Trump false data and is seen by Russians as a “cartoon character cutout” unfit for negotiations. Quotes: “General Kellogg has no credibility in negotiations… He will get no where.”
    John Mearsheimer (political scientist, University of Chicago) lumps Kellogg with “amateurs” pushing unrealistic Ukraine plans, arguing such advisors make negotiations futile. Views Kellogg’s “endgame” (evicting Russia from Donbas/Crimea) as a “dangerous illusion” ignoring Russian interests. Quote: “Keith Kellogg’s of the world… it’s not even worth going down that road.”
    Larry Johnson (former CIA analyst)
    (e.g., February 2025), Johnson portrays Kellogg’s briefings as part of a “desperate” U.S. gambit feeding Trump misleading data on Ukraine losses, aligning with his “dead bodies don’t lie” narrative.
    Scott Ritter (former UN inspector, ex-Marine)
    Highly critical: Portrays Kellogg as strategically ignorant, a saboteur of Trump’s peace agenda, and out of touch with realities (e.g., Russia’s “blowout” victory). Calls his plans “doomed,” “fantasy-driven,” and economically self-destructive; suggests firing him as “progress.”
    “I doubt the Russians will meet with Keith Kellogg… He has nothing to say worth listening to.”
    “We have Keith Kellogg who knows no a damn thing about Ukraine.”

    “Sarfatti” gives the game away about where he’s writing from here :

    “General Kellogg is a modest man, with much to be modest about. My apology to Winston Churchill. The General does not understand history. His comparison of Putin to Hitler is rubbish. Putin has no desire to occupy EU. EU is a liability. It has no energy and it is rapidly committing suicide with NET-ZERO and other really stupid policies led by delusional incompetent lunatics. Russia does not need land and it is sitting on $100 trillion + in resources that China wants and is getting through trade. Russia, China, India and other BRICs nations do not need the EU or UK or even USA.
    “Why They Can Prosper Without the WestRussia’s Pivot as Proof: Post-2022 sanctions, Russia’s exports reoriented to BRICS/non-Western markets (e.g., oil to India/China up 8-15% YoY). 2024 fossil fuel revenues fell 18% but stabilized via Asia; GDP growth ~3% projected for 2025, less external-dependent. Alliance amplifies this—BRICS+ now Russia’s top bloc.
    In summary, Russia’s alliance enables BRICS-wide prosperity via deepened intra-trade and diversification, making Western ties beneficial but not essential. Growth may be slower without them (e.g., 3-4% vs. 5%+ potential), but the bloc’s trajectory—evident in 2025 summit outcomes—points to viable independence. For Russia specifically, the West is already obsolete.”
    https://x.com/i/grok/share/hQ7TjVMYw8lWYcRxp9TlCjOWY

    Note : “Putin has no desire to occupy EU.”
    The absence of the definite article is the proof. Very ruZZian.

    Here is a maga viewpoint:

    Mark Daugherty

    Look folks, you Europeans must get over your whinging and whining about Trump not giving enough support to Ukraine. You simply must put on your big boy pants, and accept your adult responsibilities in a predatory world. America is through with paying for your defense. It well and truly done with fighting your wars for you.
    Ukraine is EUROPE’S problem. Russia is not invading South Carolina in any conceivable future. America doesn’t feel the threat. Europe has 745 million people. The Yanks are 330 million. The Yanks work twice as many hours as your people work each week, and only have half the benefits Europeans give themselves. Yet you deadbeats expect us to come from across an ocean to sort out your problems, and pay your bills.
    For the love of God, GROW UP!

    Mark Nixon

    A really interesting article, very enlightening. I do wonder where Gen Kellogg got his Stalingrad figures from, or was he misquoted? The usual figure quoted for the number of Russian dead during the siege of Stalingrad is 1.1 million, which makes the General’s point far more effectively than 68,000.

    Chris Moore

    Russia has spent years building nuclear fallout shelters for its civilian population. Putin is a psychopath. Why would he billions waste building those if he expects never to use them?

    Another troll :

    Chris Moore

    Which country has hundreds of military bases across the World? It isn’t Russia.

    David R Crawford

    Reply to Chris Moore
    Which country recently invaded Ukraine, massacred tens of thousands of civilians in Syria, invaded Georgia, has provoked battle in Azerbaijan, invaded Afghanistan, massacred Czechoslovakians, massacred Hungarians, shot down at least two commercial airliners, released WMD in London in 2006, released WMD in Salisbury area 2018?
    Killed thousands in African countries? Is it an axis of evil with Iran, North Korea and China?

    Peter UK

    “Putin is a realist and if you raise the stakes, he’s going to fold.”
    Wrong.
    Putin is a psychopath.
    They thrive on high stakes and risky behaviour, with no regard for the consequences of their actions or for the many deaths which follow.
    They are driven by spite and contempt.
    Although neurotic they don’t fear death, pain or punishment.
    The sacrifice of other people’s lives is merely a necessary action to achieve Putin’s own priority of self-aggrandisement.
    These further provocations not only probe and test NATO resolve, they are actually entertainment for Putin who thrives on the increased stimulation which military and political confrontation brings.
    If you are intending to test if Putin will fold in a nuclear exchange (he won’t) you must be prepared to go all-in.
    It has been US military doctrine for decades that any nuclear exchange with Russia/former Soviet Union should be restricted to Europe only, the theory is that having sacrificed millions of Europeans both the USA and Russia will hold off annihilating each other, with a deranged Putin in power that’s a big assumption.

  3. “If he’s convicted, then he should be held accountable, but frankly, I don’t expect him to get there. It has been disappointing to see many nations giving him a pass.”

    Many yes, including America, which hosted the child-murdering nazi in Alaska.
    I’m sure the sight of US servicemen on their knees rolling out a red carpet for a genocidal dictator while Krasnov applauded, will go down in infamy for centuries.

  4. “Before, we kept them separated, but now they’ve all raised their heads. We haven’t had a good plan yet to react to that.”

    Whose fault is that? Both the Biden admin and this admin have let mafia land off the hook, instead of crushing them while they are weak.

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