Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, Kostyantynivka. 

Nothing left to spend, nothing left to eat, and nothing left to shoot

ROBIN HORSFALL

JAN 28

Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, Kostyantynivka. 

All these front-line towns in Donbas and Zaphoritzia have been under assault by Russian forces for months. Despite enormous losses Russian generals still insist on sending men forward to soak up Ukrainian munitions in the hope eventually Ukraine will crack and give up the fight. No ambition could be more forlorn. Ukrainian soldiers are fighting on their own soil for their own people. Theirs is a fight for the survival and existence of their state. The Russian are fighting a war of conquest, for booty, for money. They are now so reluctant to go into battle their officers are hanging or shooting mutineers to instil enough fear in those left alive to go forward. Die now or die later is the only choice.

The recent Russian pincer movement intended to gain a foothold in Kostyantynivka was detected. Intelligence provided the location of second line ammunition supply dumps. Ukraine struck the dumps with drones and missiles destroying tons of ammunition prepared for the attack. As Russian troops advanced, they were unable to sustain a rate of fire which would provide enough cover. The attacks were killed at the roots and quickly collapsed, leaving Ukrainian infantry to mop up surviving troops who had run out of ammunition. In Kupiansk the Russians made a quick advance forming a salient they were once again unable to develop into a bridgehead. Approach routes became killing zones for Ukrainian drones and artillery. The roads to Kupiansk are bordered with destroyed Russian vehicles and frozen bodies. The salient was sliced up by flanking assaults and this week the town was finally restored to full Ukrainian control. Russian spent the whole of 2025 attempting to take Pokrovsk. Despite losing nearly 60,000 men the city is still not completely in their hands.

These examples are not isolated. They are only a sample of tactics being repeated across the battle front every day. Comparative casualties are now estimated to be up to thirty Russians for every Ukrainian.

For the first time Russia is unable to replace the 30,000 casualties they take every month. The huge bonuses paid to mercenary troops are proving to be unsustainable and have been cut by as much as fifty percent reducing their appeal further. Word is getting out to Africa and Asia, the money might be real, but the chances of coming home are almost non-existent.

In the cold weather, Ukraine has innovated its drone technology once again and replaced front line troops with loitering land drones. They sit on the front lines armed with infra-red cameras and .50 machine guns. On duty and awake twenty-four hours a day they don’t get frostbite.

Debris from Russian missiles has revealed manufacturing dates in December 2025 which means they are manufactured and fired in the same month. This indicates there are no stocks available. Oldest munitions are always the first used.

Both sides are concentrating their attacks on energy infrastructures, and both have experienced power cuts to their cities. However, Ukraine has a more balanced and diverse power grid which can divert power quickly though new supply routes. The old Russian Soviet systems are far less flexible and therefore more vulnerable. Ukraine confidently manages repairs in quick time often with twenty-four hours. Huge mobile generators supplied by Europe offer emergency relief in city blocks. In Russia, the lights and heating stay down for days. Ice fills the stairways and people huddle together in frozen apartment for warmth.

Trump’s ‘peace’ envoys have met with Ukrainian representatives in Abu Dhabi and came away reporting they had a ‘positive meeting’ and ‘had made progress. European leaders described the negotiations as ‘delicate.’ That’s peculiar; before 2025 it was assumed Ukraine and the USA were on the same side. The USA is not regarded as a neutral party in negotiations. They hope to extort some mercenary return of their own in minerals or territory.

Europe has decided it will finally cease all purchases of Russian gas and oil by the end of 2026 or early 2027. This is also ‘delicate’ because current purchases must be contributing to Russia continued war effort.

Russia will not partake in meaningful peace negotiations until there is nothing left to spend, nothing left to eat, and nothing left to shoot. Only then will they come to the table. By then Ukraine will know they have won and will be able to dictate the terms of a Russian surrender and a secure future for Ukraine.

I write to fight!

Slava Ukraini.

Robin Horsfall

© 2026 ROBIN HORSFALL
548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104

https://robinhorsfall.substack.com/p/pokrovsk-kupiansk-kostyantynivka?utm_source=substack&publication_id=3041702&post_id=186063563&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=17e8q4&triedRedirect=true

2 comments

  1. “Russia will not partake in meaningful peace negotiations until there is nothing left to spend, nothing left to eat, and nothing left to shoot.”

    Yes.
    Unless the U.S. becomes an ally of Ukraine, not putlerstan as it is currently.

  2. “Comparative casualties are now estimated to be up to thirty Russians for every Ukrainian.”

    Wonderful. It warms the heart to know that so many subhumans are killed for every Ukrainian warrior.

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