5.12.2025
Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin hastened to declare Ukrainian Kupyansk captured. However, in reality, the Defense Forces managed to stabilize the situation and actually deprive the enemy group of supply routes by taking control of the only logistics highway. Currently, approximately 60% of Kupyansk is under stable control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, another 20% is a gray zone where the clearing is ongoing. The liberation of the remaining 20% from the enemy is a matter of the near future. The danger on this section of the front is the area of the village of Dvorichna, where the enemy is trying not only to gain a foothold, but also to expand its bridgehead.
At the same time, the situation with Pokrovsk, unfortunately, looks exactly the opposite, also due to control over logistical routes. Here, unlike Kupyansk, the enemy has taken control of a key route, due to which the Defense Forces group is supplied exclusively by air. Presumably, holding positions here, despite the long confrontation, will soon come to an end.
This forecast was voiced by military expert Vladislav Seleznyov in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– Despite the fact that Putin claims to have captured Kupyansk, in reality the situation in the city has been stabilized. On December 3, the head of the communications department of the Joint Forces Group, Viktor Tregubov, reported that the Defense Forces had pushed the enemy to the northern outskirts of the city, and a cordon zone had been created around Kupyansk, which actually completely cuts off the enemy’s logistics. In your opinion, can we say that the city has actually been saved?
– I would like to repeat the good old meme: “I told you so.” The last time we talked, I said that the prospects of keeping Kupyansk and its surroundings under our control are more positive for us than in the situation developing in the Pokrovsk and Myrnograd areas.
Today, approximately 50-60% of the settlement of Kupyansk is under the stable control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Another 20% is a gray zone, where fighting continues and where we are gradually clearing all buildings and structures, trying to find and destroy the enemy there. About 20% of the northwestern districts of Kupyansk are still under Russian control, but I think it is a matter of time. We will clear them soon.
Why are we quite successful on this section of the front? This is what Tregubov is talking about – we keep under fire control the enemy’s logistical artery, with the help of which he provides his group in the north of Kupyansk with everything necessary. Along Kupyansk, from north to south, a beautiful story called the Oskil River runs. Further north along the river, the enemy has built a pontoon bridge crossing, through which he moves cargo from the left to the right bank of the river. Then these cargoes, as well as personnel, are moved with the aim of infiltration into the territory of Kupyansk.
The width of this corridor is not very large, at its maximum about 4 kilometers. Accordingly, our drone operators, our artillerymen and mortarmen keep this section of the front under constant fire. The enemy is suffering serious losses, trying to organize stable logistics. But I count on the Ukrainian Defense Forces to move some resources there and cut this logistical artery, and, accordingly, deprive the enemy of stable logistical support. As a result, the enemy, having lost access to resources, will be practically doomed. Either he surrenders or will be destroyed. In general, the processes that are currently taking place in Kupyansk give hope for the earliest possible transition of this.
But there is another problem there. If you look at the map, the settlement of Dvorichna is located north of Kupyansk . The situation there is more complicated. It is due to the fact that the enemy there is trying not only to occupy the borders and positions in this settlement, but also to expand the bridgehead of control in its vicinity.
In which direction the enemy will act further depends on the availability of appropriate resources. Yes, of course, it is extremely important for him to create the so-called buffer zone, which the Kremlin dictator Putin announced back in May last year, in particular on the territory of the Kharkiv region, in its northeastern part. In principle, the Russians have some experience. There are a number of settlements there, control over which we have lost. We are talking about small villages.
This, in my opinion, is the only worrying trend, because the enemy is trying to enter the territory of the Kharkiv region, in the north-eastern part, with the aim of forming the same sanitary zone. There is a problem here.
– You said that the success in Kupyansk is primarily due to the fact that the enemy’s logistical artery was under fire control of the Defense Forces. If we transfer this situation to Pokrovsk, what does our logistics look like on that section of the front? In fact, we have long since “buried” Pokrovsk, but the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Airborne Assault Forces states that Russian troops are bogged down in urban battles for Pokrovsk and currently cannot completely capture this settlement with the help of weapons. In your opinion, is there any chance of keeping the city under our control?
– But in Pokrovsk, the situation is diametrically opposite, because the enemy keeps our main logistical arteries and routes under fire control. Therefore, although we have chances to hold this settlement, they are quite illusory and depend on the coincidence of a number of positive factors for us. In principle, what is happening now in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd is most likely maneuverable defense battles and rearguard battles.
I believe that we will not hear any official statements from the speakers of the specified direction of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Usually, such events are held within the framework of information silence. But it is obvious that in the absence of stable logistics, effective defense is impossible .
Just yesterday (December 3. – Ed.) information appeared from open sources with reference to one of the Ukrainian servicemen, who is in Myrnograd, that the situation there is extremely difficult in terms of logistics. Delivery of military cargo is carried out exclusively by air, using heavy drones. Accordingly, large-scale transportation is impossible in such conditions. Any equipment that tries to break through to Myrnograd or in the opposite direction is a target for Russian artillerymen, these cars and transport have little chance of survival.
I think the next few days will show the dynamics and variability of the situation in the Pokrovsky direction. But I am not sure that we will hear any good news. The lack of good news is due to the extremely difficult disposition of our forces and means towards the Russians.
The Russians fully control Pokrovsk in its southern part, they are infiltrating the central and northern parts, with the exception of the northeastern microdistricts of the city. The enemy keeps under steady fire control all logistical routes and directions that go both towards Pokrovsk and towards Myrnograd. Plus, they continue to press our defenders in the southern suburbs of Myrnograd.
Given that in the last few days there has been information about the plant of fresh Russian forces and means on armored vehicles in the Pokrovska and Mirnograd area, I think that the Russians have such an opportunity. This is not surprising, because about 140 thousand Russian servicemen are concentrated on this relatively small section of the front. We do not have fresh forces and means to carry out rotations. Therefore, the situation, in my opinion, is quite obvious – obvious in terms of the possibility of further holding these lines.
Let’s remember the statement of President Volodymyr Zelensky. He said: what is more important for us – to preserve the ruins of Pokrovsk or to preserve the lives and health of our defenders? The answer is obvious: the lives and health of our defenders are much more important.
Therefore, I think that there is political will, and then the appropriate military mechanisms are included in the work in terms of conducting maneuver defense, conducting rearguard battles in order to organize the transfer of our forces and resources to other lines and positions where the Ukrainian Defense Forces will not be effectively surrounded.
If there is stable fire control over key logistical routes, we can safely say that the situation for our forces and assets operating in the Pokrovska and Myrnograd areas is extremely difficult.
Obviously if there was an easy way to extirpate the orc scum from Pokrovsk, the defenders would have done so.
One therefore must conclude that the problem
Is the usual one : lack of firepower and lack of manpower. It the orcs were getting hit with cluster munitions and thermite 24-7 it’d be a different story.
Damn the allies for their fecklessness.
Yes, damn them!