12/18/2023 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
In early December, Ukrainian air defense shot down a Russian Su-24 front-line bomber over the Black Sea – this is one of the few enemy aircraft destroyed in 2023. At the same time, just the day before, the Russian media boasted about the new delivery of Yak-130 and Su-30SM aircraft to the Russian Aerospace Forces. And the question arises: to what extent has Russia been able to increase the production of combat aircraft and compensate for the losses that it continues to suffer in the war with Ukraine?
But before delving into the essence of the issue, I note that in 2023, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian occupiers lost 41 combat aircraft. This, of course, is far from the 2022 figure – more than 250. Losses were especially high in the first weeks of hostilities, when Russian tactical aircraft confidently cut through Ukrainian airspace.
But in 2022, the Russian Aerospace Forces received 29 new vehicles, of which: Su-57 – 6 units, Su-35 – 7, Su-34 – 10, Su-30SM – 4 and Yak-130 – 2.
It is very difficult to call this compensation for losses, given the shooting of Russian aviation that took place last year. But have the Russians managed to increase aviation production in 2023?
Production of tactical aircraft in Russia in 2023
Some time ago I considered the issue of supplying combat aircraft to the Russian Aerospace Forces, and in my material on OBOZ.UA dated October 30, I noted that in Russian at that time, the enterprises were able to deliver about 18 aircraft. It is known that among them is one Su-57, eight Su-35, four Su-34, two Su-30SM and two Yak-130.
After October 30, the transfer of aviation continued, and the Russian Aerospace Forces received at least eight aircraft.
So, on November 22, PJSC United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Novosibirsk Aviation Plant named after V.P. Chkalov transferred to the Russian Aerospace Forces the third batch this year, presumably of two Su-34 front-line bombers, which brings their total number to approximately six units.
November 24 “UAC” and Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant named after Yu.A. Gagarin (KnAAZ) handed over the fifth batch of this year to the Russian Aerospace Forces – presumably of two Su-35S multirole fighters, which brought their total number to approximately ten units.
And on December 2, “UAC” and the Irkutsk Aviation Plant (IAZ) handed over to the Russian Aerospace Forces the second batch of Su-30SM multirole fighters and Yak-130 combat trainers this year. Each batch included two aircraft. The total number of units transferred in 2023 as of today was 4 units, as well as the combat training Yak-130.
Thus, as of the second half of December 2023, the Russian Aerospace Forces received about 26 planes during the current year, of which four are training – combat Yak-130 and one Su-57 fighter, which can hardly be called combat-ready. And these are all delivery figures, with losses for the year still amounting to 41 planes. Do they manage to compensate? Even in the current format, no. And even more than that, Russia is now losing aviation in Ukraine, which it cannot compensate for in any way.
Aviation losses ROV in Ukraine for 2023
When we talk about losses of 41 aircraft, we are generalizing different models, with different functionality and applications. But what is important is that Russia is now losing more and more aircraft that it cannot produce, namely Su-25 attack aircraft and Su-24 front-line bombers. Someone will say – they are getting rid of Soviet rubbish. Yes, you can say so, but what modern attack aircraft, an analogue of the Su-25, is Russia producing today? None.
I would also like to point out the combat composition of the Russian Aerospace Forces – according to the data that was publicly available until 2022. Let me note right away that no one knows the full picture and all the given figures are approximate, since with respect to any equipment, especially aviation, there are a number of accompanying factors that, on the one hand, may indicate its performance, but not its combat effectiveness. And not only.
Below is the number of Russian aircraft, taking into account those that are conditionally officially combat-ready and those that are in storage – mothballed.
MiG-29 – 87/240
MiG-31 – 129
MiG-35 – 6
Su-24 – 120/273
Su-25 – 180/192
Su-27 – 101/359
Su-30 – 110
Su-34 – 149
Su-35 – 114/118
Su-57 – 11
Currently, the Russians are endangering their Su-24 and Su-25 more than the rest of their components. But Ukraine has not yet developed an effective countermeasure for the Su-34/35. But even with these indicators, the loss of at least 28 Su-25 attack aircraft and at least 11 Su-24 front-line bombers has been verified. I note that usually verified losses differ from real ones by two or more times.
In other words, Russia is now suffering uncompensated losses in aviation, which it not only does not produce, but is unlikely to be able to fully restore from existing reserves.
Conclusion
During the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian tactical aviation suffered irreparable losses. With the current performance indicators of its production, it will be able to compensate for the lost potential in 10 years and not earlier. But losses continue and increasingly, due to objective reasons, they become irreplaceable at all.
Russian media and talking heads at various levels report an increase in the production of military aircraft in the Russian Federation, but in fact there is no growth, and the indicators that exist will in no way restore the diving potential of the Russian Aerospace Forces. At the same time, with each year of the war in Ukraine, it dives lower and lower.
The material was published as part of the joint project OBOZ.UA and the group “Information Resistance”.
I’m looking forward to seeing Ukraine’s new long-range drones turn more roach planes into junk.