Oleg Davygora23:18, 01/01/24

He expressed confidence that Crimea and the associated battle on the Black Sea would become the center of gravity of the war.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has said little about what Ukraine might achieve in 2024 , saying leaks ahead of last summer’s counteroffensive helped Russia prepare its defenses.

In an interview  with  The Economist, he expressed confidence that Crimea and the associated battle on the Black Sea will become the center of gravity of the war.

Isolating Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, and degrading Russia’s military capabilities there “is extremely important to us because it is a way to reduce the number of attacks from that region,” he said.

The President is confident that a successful operation will become “an example for the whole world.” This will also have a big effect inside Russia. The loss of the central object of Kremlin propaganda would show that “thousands of Russian officers died only because of Putin’s ambitions.”

Zelensky says the speed of success will depend on the military assistance Ukraine receives from Western partners. He asked for a German Taurus rocket. This could allow Ukraine to destroy the $4 billion Crimean Bridge, effectively isolating Crimea from Russia.

“Russia must know that for us this is a military facility,” he added.

Liberation of Crimea – forecasts

The costs and challenges of Ukraine’s defense will vary dramatically depending on whether occupied Crimea returns to Ukraine or remains in Russian hands. Analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War write about this, analyzing various scenarios.

“The January 2022 lines considered assume that Russia will retain Crimea. However, if Ukraine liberates the peninsula along with the Russian-occupied lines in the south, then the immediate threat to Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa will disappear, and the threat to Melitopol will sharply decrease,” ISW notes.

(C)UNIAN 2024