The May 9 parade, supposed to epitomize Russia’s military might under dictator Vladimir Putin, instead exposed its vulnerability and weakness as tanks failed to roll across Red Square for the first time in 20 years, The Economist wrote on May 10.

“For the first time in almost three years, the initiative in the war appears to have shifted to Ukraine’s side,” the article read.

“After surviving a harsh winter when its cities and energy grid faced massive Russian drone and missile strikes almost nightly, Ukraine is now turning the tide. It is inflicting mounting damage on Russia across practically all metrics.”

At the same time, Russia’s anticipated spring offensive has not merely failed; Russian forces suffered net territorial losses in April for the first time since August 2024. Russia lost control of 113 square kilometers over the past 30 days, according to The Economist’s calculations based on ISW maps.

“Overall, this looks like a turning point in the war,”  Lawrence Freedman, a professor of war studies at King’s College London wrote.

“If the Russians have nothing to show for their efforts, I wouldn’t be surprised if things start to unravel in some places.”

The ratio of killed and wounded is rising as a significant portion of casualties (up to approximately 80%) is now caused by FPV drone strikes, The Economist noted.

Meanwhile, Russian occupiers complain that Ukraine’s new autonomous drones are silent until they begin their dive. They utilize artificial intelligence and are controlled via fiber-optic cables to resist jamming.

The drone strike zone, extending about 20 km between the front lines, is expanding deep into the Russian rear, and this has a greater impact on Russian operations than on Ukrainian ones, Freedman asserted. It is far more effective for Ukraine to destroy the supporting infrastructure for an offensive than to eliminate the few soldiers now spearheading the attacks, the publication clarified.

Russia is also taking hits from Ukrainian medium-range drones (spanning 50 to 300 km). The targets include ammunition depots, drone storage facilities, command and control centers, anti-aircraft missile launchers, radars, and deployment areas where armored vehicles and troops are concentrated.

However, the question remains whether Russia’s various setbacks — on the battlefield or due to the destruction of economic infrastructure — are indicators that Putin’s capabilities in Ukraine are shrinking, The Economist clarified.

“It is hard to imagine how the situation could improve for Russia. If you had to brief Putin, the picture would be pretty bleak,” Jones said.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on April 10 that the occupiers aim to capture the cities of Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast by the end of April 2026.

Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on April 22 that the Russians are not abandoning their attempts to advance and intend to capture not only the Donbas but the entire territory of Ukraine.

The ISW also believes that Moscow maintains its territorial ambitions in Ukraine beyond the unoccupied portion of Donetsk Oblast.

DeepState representatives reported on May 2 that Russian forces captured 141 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in April, which is 11.9% less than in March, when 160 square kilometers were seized.

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