Yuri Kobzar18:45, 09.12.23

Trump has made similar threats in the past and is hinting at it now.

European governments are seriously concerned that if Donald Trump returns to the White House, he will not only completely stop aid to Ukraine, but may also deliberately destroy NATO. A number of European diplomats and officials spoke to The New York Times on condition of anonymity.

The publication notes that throughout the existence of the North Atlantic Alliance, both “Republican” and “Democratic” US presidents saw this organization as a tool for increasing America’s power and influence on the world stage. 

However, Donald Trump has made it clear that he sees NATO only as a black hole through which Europeans extract American resources. And Trump has held this opinion for more than two decades.

Already becoming president, he repeatedly threatened to leave the United States from the alliance if Europe did not increase its defense spending. In the new election campaign, which is now gaining momentum, Trump has so far said very little about his intentions. However, his official campaign website contains the following sentence: 

“We must complete the process we began under my administration by fundamentally reassessing NATO’s purpose and mission.” 

At the same time, both Trump himself and his associates refuse to disclose the specific content of this phrase. The United States’ European allies are concerned about this.

The NYT claims European ambassadors and think tanks have been “making pilgrimages” to Trump’s allies to inquire about his intentions. Sources say at least one foreign diplomat, Finnish Ambassador Mikko Hautala, has been in direct contact with Trump and discussed NATO with him.

More than half a dozen current and former European diplomats told the NYT that there is alarm in their governments that Trump’s return could mean not just a move away from Ukraine, but also a broader American retreat from the European continent and the collapse of the North Atlantic Alliance.

“There is great fear in Europe that a second Trump presidency would lead to a virtual withdrawal of the United States from NATO. This would be a huge strategic and historical failure on the part of our nation,” said former NATO Allied Commander and retired US General James G. Stavridis .

Interviews with current and former diplomats showed that European officials are largely unsure how to handle Trump other than to return to the previous game of flattery. Smaller countries, more fearful of a Russian attack, are expected to try to buy Trump’s favor by increasing their orders for American weapons or—as Poland did during his presidency—engaging in grand acts of flattery, such as offering to name the Fort Trump military base in exchange for a permanent American presence there.

As the NYT notes, at the current stage of the election campaign, Trump is focused on the criminal cases against him and on defeating his Republican rivals in the primary elections. That’s why he rarely talks about NATO, even in private. 

“Amid the raging doubts, one thing can be said: the first area where Mr. Trump’s potential return to the White House in 2025 could trigger a foreign policy crisis is in Ukraine and the alliance of Western democracies that support its defense against Russian invasion,” the newspaper writes.

Former Assistant Secretary General of NATO Camilla Grand expressed the opinion that Europe will draw conclusions from exactly what Trump will do with Ukraine after returning to the White House. However, there are thoughts that Trump is simply bluffing, trying to force Europeans to invest more in their own defense.

“He’s not going to do that (leave NATO – UNIAN). But what he will do is force people to pay more, and I think that will be good news for a lot of people,” Republican Senator Lindsey Graham is convinced.

Trump’s last national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, shares the same opinion.

Court allows Trump to be prosecuted for storming CapitolBut John Bolton, a conservative hawk who served as national security adviser from 2018 to 2019, wrote in his memoirs that Trump had to be repeatedly talked out of leaving NATO. In the interview, Bolton said “I have no doubt” that Trump would withdraw the United States from NATO in a second term.

From a legal perspective, whether Trump could unilaterally withdraw the United States from NATO is likely to be contested. The Constitution requires the consent of the Senate to ratify a treaty, but omits procedures for its annulment. This has led to debate about whether presidents can do this on their own or whether they need permission from lawmakers. There are only a few legal precedents on this issue, none of which are conclusive.

However, European diplomats say that even Trump’s unsuccessful attempt to withdraw the United States from NATO could so undermine confidence in the reliability of the Alliance as a guarantor of European security that it will cease to be a deterrent for Russia.

Trump and NATO

As UNIAN wrote, in October, at one of his election rallies, Donald Trump boasted to his supporters that during his presidency he blackmailed European leaders by refusing to defend their allies in the event of a Russian attack.

This was said in the context of financing NATO structures. Trump noted that most member countries of the alliance make too small contributions to the organization and, in general, spend little on their own defense needs, shifting the main burden of protecting Europe to the United States.

(C)UNIAN 2023