Jan 15, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin may have to contend with a simmering “clan war” in the Kremlin corridors of power as he navigates the March presidential elections and looks to revitalize Moscow’s military quagmire in Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that tensions among Putin’s “siloviki”—a term referring to the intelligence and security veterans who have long surrounded the strongman—are increasingly breaking into public view amid the stresses of the war on Ukraine.

“Such factional feuds have notable but not dispositive battlefield effects,” the ISW said. “They can damage cohesion between Russian forces and demoralize Russian personnel but are unlikely to lead to mass conflict within the Russian ranks or wider society.”

Recent tensions between the Russian military command and a Serbian mercenary formation—in which Serb soldier Dejan Beric, now an adviser to Putin’s presidential election team, claimed his compatriots had been abused by VDV airborne commanders—speaks to a nascent “clan war” inside Russia, according to the Russian Visionary Channel Telegram account.

“Instead of a watery pre-election truce, a clan war broke out,” the channel—which ISW describes as a “Russian political insider source who routinely discusses specific details of Russian political and military command changes”—said.

Beric’s public complaints, Visionary Channel said, are likely part of a broader attack by the Russian Defense Ministry against independent pro-war bloggers, Russia’s powerful VDV airborne formations, and their patrons within the Kremlin establishment.

“The source claimed that Beric’s appeal was part of a retaliatory attack executed on behalf of Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev‘s and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu‘s respective factions within the Kremlin against the faction of Igor Sechin—Putin’s ‘de facto deputy’ and CEO of Russian state oil company Rosneft,” ISW wrote.

Specifically, the Telegram channel said Beric’s actions may be intended to undermine Tula Oblast Governor Alexei Dyumin—a member of Sechin’s faction—who serves as the patron of several VDV formations, as well as VDV commanders Major General Vladimir Seliverstov and Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky.

“Dyumin, Teplinsky, and Seliverstov have previously been involved in feuds with the Russian MOD and affiliated themselves with the Wagner Group and opposition to Shoigu,” ISW noted.

Sechin’s network, meanwhile, has been undermining Patrushev by attacking his son—Dmitry Patrushev, who serves as the Russian agriculture minister—over the country’s recent egg shortage, according to the Telegram channel.

“The source implied that factions are attempting to discredit each other in Putin’s eyes to ensure that they can secure new positions within the Kremlin following the presidential election,” ISW noted.

Putin has long cultivated a competitive atmosphere within his inner circle, playing different factions off against one another while remaining largely above the toxic fray.

“In-fighting and factional dynamics within the Kremlin are not new phenomena and do not indicate the imminent collapse of Putin’s regime, particularly because power verticals are the foundation of Putin’s regime,” ISW wrote.

“Putin has an affinity for rotating officials and military commanders instead of outright dismissing them to prevent any single individual from amassing too much political influence and to maintain support among competing factions.”

“Putin is unlikely to change this system and eliminate these power verticals as they serve as a foundation of his rule,” the think tank added.

“Permanent friction among the different factions that play roles in Putin’s war in Ukraine can impede Russia’s decision-making, however, and limit the Kremlin’s ability to bring coherence and efficiency to the Russian military.”

https://www.newsweek.com/clan-war-breaking-out-putin-close-circle-isw-kremlin-ukraine-1860707