Even though there is no official confirmation os which weapon is responsible for destruction of russian A-50 and Il-22M, it is the Patriot system that remains the most realistic option
The official confirmation of the destruction of the A-50 airborne early warning and control system and the Il-22M airborne command center from the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi was accompanied by a video of flight data monitoring. These visuals allow us to roughly estimate how close to the front line Ukraine had to deploy its countermeasures, provided those were ground-based.
It is currently not announced what exactly type of weapon took the russian aircraft down, however, this is not the first time such a successful downing happened, actually. The series of casualties among russian attack aircraft, humorously known as the “Bryansk massacre” was caused by none but the Patriot anti-aircraft SAM system, as indirectly disclosed by the Ukrainian Air Force.
It is also believed, although not confirmed, that Patriot was involved in the downing of four Su-34s and one Su-30 in quick succession in late December, all cases implying that the Ukrainian valuable air defense system had to be deployed in a dangerous proximity to russian positions.
This possibility has already given rise to the “wandering Patriot” theory, originated in russia. From seemingly absurd allegations that a Patriot was mounted on a train to more comprehensible explanations, they all suggest that Ukraine keeps one of its Patriots on the move, unfolding it in an unpredictable location when accomplishing a specific task is necessary.
High risk, high reward tactic requires the system to approach the frontline; but in the case of A-50/Il-22M shooting, it’s not just close but practically on the frontline since the PAC-2 GEM-T missile, the most far-reaching surface-to-air weapon of Ukraine and the Patriot particularly, has a range of 160 km which is almost on the brink of the distance from the closest Ukrainian forward line of allied units.
Now, an important remark: the following is a theoretical simulation of how destruction of the russian aircraft could be achieved by deploying a Patriot system. Further clarifications from verified sources may render these estimations unrelated to reality. The analysis is provided for illustrative purposes and, if turned out to be true, to highlight the unparalleled character of operational decisions of the Ukrainian military command.
To simply reach the aircraft, the Patriot should have been deployed a mere 25 km from the forward positions, now add the minimum “spare” distance to the target, which is required “by the book” in order to launch a successful interception, and we get a battery emplaced 15 km from the frontline. This is close enough for most of the russian artillery and rocket artillery systems to reach from the other side.
Maybe that is why Ukraine’s destruction of an A-50 AEW&C system became an unprecedented case in the world’s military history, since it was so risky and required an exceptional level of secrecy, disguise, and precision on every step of the operation.
Now the russian military bloggers, who not only invented the Patriot train theory but also “destroyed” one of those, will have to come up with new explanations because there are simply no railways anywhere close in that region.
“the most far-reaching surface-to-air weapon of Ukraine and the Patriot particularly, has a range of 160 km which is almost on the brink of the distance from the closest Ukrainian forward line of allied units.”
The video showing where the planes disappeared, looks to be around 200km from any Ukrainian held territory, which is well beyond the range of Patriots. Something for the orcs to think about while they come up with their excuses.
I doubt that it was Patriots that downed those planes, not only due to the long distance but the complexity of such an operation. It’s not just a truck with a few missiles that must be moved around. And, although those planes are valuable for the roaches, they have more, and risking a billion-dollar gift is simply not worth it.
But…
Whatever system was used, it once again shows that Ukrainians are streets ahead of the orcs when it comes to tactics and strategy.
I can’t wait to find out one day what it was. This includes the Su-34s that were downed.
Good point. Mr. Ofp. While Russia has only a limited number of A-50 planes, maybe 9 operational ones, Ukraine has even less Patriot systems. Doesn’t make much sense to me to risk even one for such a daring mission. Like “Son of Liberty” downthread, I have other ideas how this impressive aerial victory could have been accomplished, but I don’t think this should be discussed in public. It’s better not to give stupid Russian generals any hints.
It could be the Franken-SAM system. Patriot miaailwa launched by the more mobile Buk system. It would still be a risky operation, but less than placing a conventional Patriot battery close to the front line.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/frankensam-americans-are-integrating-patriot-missiles-with-soviet-air-defense-systems/
“On the day of Rockoning, it’s who dares, wins”
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