An analyst explained the essence of the submarine explosion in Novorossiysk

Larisa Kozova17:53, 16.12.25

The port of Novorossiysk is supposed to be the most protected Russian facility on the Black Sea, but a Ukrainian drone bypassed the defenses.

The operation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces to penetrate the port of Novorossiysk and blow up the submarine “Varshavyanka” is a fantastic success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and at the same time a fantastic failure of Russia, said military expert Yuriy Fedorov.

“The first conclusion that suggests itself is a fantastic in quality and audacity operation by the Ukrainian special services and the Ukrainian Navy. Imagine an underwater drone – a device that is very difficult to control at a distance. Especially at a distance of several hundred kilometers. These underwater unmanned devices penetrated the Tsemes Bay, where the Novorossiysk port and a number of oil terminals of strategic importance are located,” the analyst emphasized on the YouTube channel The Breakfast Show .

In theory, according to him, the port of Novorossiysk should be the most protected Russian facility on the Black Sea coast. However, as Fedorov emphasized, a Ukrainian drone (or several drones) probably overcame the “multi-layered security system” that was supposed to be in place and hit the submarine. The expert noted that the command of the Russian Black Sea Fleet simply could not deny the “striking explosion” in the port.

Fedorov assumes that the submarine was significantly damaged, but if the Black Sea Fleet command admits the loss of the submarine, the Russian prosecutor’s office will launch an investigation into the negligence of the commanders and officers of the Russian Federation who are being trained for port security.

“Because this is simply a fantastic failure of the Russian Federation and a fantastic success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which the Russian military authorities, as often happens with them, simply “slapped away,” Fedorov emphasized.

According to him, the loss of the “Varshavyanka” is of great importance for the Russian military fleet. At one time, 12 such submarines were built and adopted by the Russian Federation, of which 6 are assigned to the Black Sea Fleet, the rest to the Pacific Fleet of Russia. Earlier, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had already damaged one “Varshavyanka” in the Black Sea and since then, according to the analyst, it has been under repair. Whether the submarine can be restored is unknown.

“We don’t know for sure what happened to the submarine that was blown up yesterday, but the explosion was quite powerful… Now there are 4 such submarines left in the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and their further fate also raises serious questions – these submarines are in Novorossiysk or in some other ports on the eastern coast of the Black Sea… But the Novorossiysk port turned out to be unprotected, and this, I repeat, is the most important problem for Russia,” the expert noted.

He added that these underwater drones could cause a lot of trouble for the Russian fleet, oil terminals and, possibly, for tankers that risk entering this port. “Maybe on New Year’s Eve, who knows, a lot of interesting events await Russia,” Fedorov suggested.

Fedorov also emphasized that the port of Novorossiysk is quite difficult to protect according to the Crimean principle, if only because the multi-layered physical security system, underwater devices, barges, etc. in Novorossiysk will prevent the entry of vessels heading, in particular, to oil terminals.

(C)UNIAN 2025

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