Ukraine in Focus

By Svitlana Morenets

July 5, 2024

It’s quite amusing to watch foreign journalists ask Volodymyr Zelensky if a counter-offensive is coming, given the constant Russian advances. ‘How the hell should we do it – with bare hands?’ is what he should have answered. But he has been more diplomatic. ‘Today, we need to defend what we have,’ he told Bloomberg. ‘We have the desire, but the tools haven’t arrived. We have brigades with no weapons. We have a reserve. We have 14 brigades that are not equipped, and lack the necessary weapons, which they [the US Congress] have already voted for. They said that the packages should come, but they [the deliveries] are slow,’ Zelensky said.

The good news is that brigades are now getting regular deliveries of artillery shells. Russia now has just a 3:1 advantage in artillery over Ukraine (thanks to the Czech initiative and US aid bills). Just a couple of months ago, Russia surpassed Ukraine by a factor of ten in the number of artillery shells fired daily. An artillery unit I spoke with last week told me that in spring, they had only ten shells for 12 howitzers a day. No wonder Ukraine was losing a village per week on the east.

The bad news is that Russian troops are dropping dozens of powerful 500-1500 kg guided bombs on Ukrainian positions daily. Moscow’s strategy remains the same as in Bakhmut and Avdiivka: burn everything to the ground, leaving nothing to hold on to. Ukraine needs F-16 aircraft to shoot down Russian bomb carriers to halt Vladimir Putin’s advance on the battlefield. Allies have been saying for months that they are supposed to arrive ‘soon’. This date may be imminent, as the Ukrainian air force has stopped commenting on the F-16s to journalists. It is also refusing to comment on Russian attacks on Ukrainian airfields. This week, a Russian missile destroyed two Su-27s stationed 100 miles from the front line, damaging four other aircraft. Why they were parked in the open is another question.

While Russian troops have stalled in the Kharkiv region, the main battle rages on in Donetsk. Ukrainian forces have retreated from a neighbourhood on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. Yesterday, 238 Russian attacks were recorded in the area – from all types of weapons. The city holds strategic importance because it stands on elevated ground. If it falls, cities such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk will be in jeopardy, critical Ukrainian supply routes will be compromised and Russia will be one step closer to seizing the entire Donetsk region.

Besides the lack of weapons, the main complaints on the front line are exhaustion, loss of motivation and the small supply of reinforcements. The number of recruits from the latest enlistment wave is too small to fill all the brigades. Conscription has become so stressful that some men would rather swim across the river into Romania (more than 35 of those who have tried have drowned so far) or spend years in prison for desertion. This week, one man slashed his wrists in a military enlistment office bathroom to avoid mobilisation. In Vorokhta, a popular tourist destination in western Ukraine, locals attacked an enlistment vehicle. They rallied against a checkpoint at which soldiers check military service documents, claiming it was driving tourists away. The recruitment office fired back, saying that only those dodging their constitutional duty are avoiding the town.

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Ukraine in Focus

By Svitlana Morenets

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• Volodymyr Zelensky said Donald Trump should reveal his plan for ending the war so Kyiv can be prepared for any risks that it might entail.
• Some 58% of Ukrainians think their country will win the war, 30% predict a settlement and just 1% expect a Russian win, according to a European Council on Foreign Relations poll.
• Viktor Orban visited Kyiv and urged Zelensky to consider a ceasefire to ‘speed up peace talks’, but the Ukrainian President dismissed the idea. He believes it would only provide a window of opportunity for Russia to regroup its forces.
• Nato members have reportedly agreed to provide Ukraine with military aid worth £34 billion next year.
• Nato will establish a new post in Kyiv, as well as a command in Germany to safeguard long-term aid for Ukraine should Trump return to the White House.
• Trump is reportedly considering making a deal with Vladimir Putin to block both Ukraine and Georgia’s Nato accession.
• The Netherlands has finalised the export licences for 24 F-16s. The fighter jets will be delivered to Ukraine ‘soon’.
• Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former chief of the Ukrainian army, has reportedly left for the United Kingdom to start his new role as an ambassador.
• Ukraine has started to mass produce strike drones which have a range of more than 600 miles.
• China is allegedly developing attack drones to aid Russia, similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine.
• Russia took over the presidency of the UN Security Council and said that discussions around Ukraine are not on the agenda for this month.
• A Kazakh opposition activist and journalist died in Kyiv after he was shot in a parked car. His wife has accused the country’s president of being responsible for the attack.
• A Russian court has sentenced a 19-year-old to 12 years in prison for treason after he was accused of donating money to the Ukrainian army.

Wider reading on the war

Trump’s plan for Nato is emerging – Politico

Russia twice sent attack submarines toward the Irish sea – Bloomberg

A Bugatti, Ukraine’s first lady and the fake stories aimed at Americans – BBC

Russia’s devastating glide bombs keep falling on its own territory – Washington Post

Rumour of North Korea troops in Ukraine shows threat to the West – Bloomberg

In pictures

Khmelnytsky region: A woman kisses her 20-year-old grandson, who died fighting for Ukraine. Oleksandr Polishchuk joined the army as a volunteer in February this year. Many young people gathered at his funeral. (Photo: Memorial of Heroes)

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Quote of the week

‘If Trump knows how to finish this war, he should tell us today. If there are risks to Ukrainian independence, if we lose statehood – we want to be ready for this, we want to know… We want to understand whether in November we will have the powerful support of the US, or will be all alone.’

– Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview with Bloomberg.

The war in numbers:

Europeans who support sending more weapons to Ukraine:

56%

Only Italians, Greece and Bulgaria more opposed to sending extra weapons

Agricultural products exported from Ukraine to Africa and Asia:

220,000 tons

Providing food security for 8 million people

Ukrainian territory cleared of Russian mines:

11,600mi²

Some 56,000mi² is still mined.

A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk