Ukraine in Focus

By Svitlana Morenets

Putin orders new offensive

‘You want a ceasefire? I want your death,’ said Russia’s chief propagandist Vladimir Soloviev during prime time television, the camera zooming in on his face. His message was aimed at both Ukrainians and Europeans urging the Kremlin to stop the war. Soloviev, alongside a chorus of other Kremlin loyalists and military experts, has lately been gloating about how Vladimir Putin weathered western pressure and secured Donald Trump on his side. There will be no peace, they say, until Ukraine capitulates to Russian demands.

Putin, as if to prove the point, announced yesterday that he had ordered the military to begin creating a ‘security buffer zone’ along the Ukrainian border – which is not quite the peace process Trump has been calling for. The zone would stretch along Russia’s Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod regions, meaning Putin’s troops would have to break into Ukraine from the north, seizing parts of the Kyiv, Sumy and Kharkiv regions. The border, already penetrated by constant raids from both sides, will soon become the front line of a fresh invasion as Putin seeks to seize more Ukrainian land. ‘Our armed forces are currently solving this problem,’ he said after returning from Russia’s Kursk region, recently liberated from Ukrainians.

The Russian President is longing for a breakthrough on the battlefield, but his troops are bogged down in the Donetsk region, unable to deliver a single win to make Kyiv more obedient during negotiations. He’s used this strategy before. The infamous first Minsk deal was signed after Ukraine suffered a catastrophic defeat at Ilovaisk in August 2014, where hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers were slaughtered while retreating through a so-called humanitarian corridor arranged by Putin.

This time, the Russian President needs something just as big and traumatic for Ukrainians to live through. But since the fall of Avdiivka in February last year, Russian forces haven’t managed to capture a single major city. Yesterday, Putin promoted Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev, who was awarded the Hero of Russia for the occupation of Avdiivka, to Commander-in-Chief of Russia’s Ground Forces. His job now will be to replicate that success elsewhere, where Ukraine’s defences haven’t been heavily sealed with mine fields, trenches and drones.

Ukraine braces for the looming attack. Nearly 56,000 people have been evacuated from the Sumy region, while in Kharkiv more than a hundred residents are fleeing daily. Ukrainian soldiers warn of Russian forces massing near the border, with small sabotage units probing for weak spots. Ukraine’s overstretched and exhausted army will struggle to defend such a wide front. Kyiv’s best hope of averting a disaster is to secure a ceasefire, something Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing for in recent months.

But with Trump walking away from the talks, urging Russia and Ukraine to negotiate directly without mediators, and his refusal to impose new sanctions on Moscow, a Russian offensive looks all but inevitable. The Kremlin keeps inventing one excuse after another for the ceasefire delay, with the latest being that Zelensky and his government supposedly lack the legitimacy to sign a peace deal. This week, Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, called for elections in Ukraine before the agreement is signed – otherwise, Moscow reserves the right to refuse to recognise its outcome. And break it, too.

Lavrov also dismissed the Vatican as a venue for the next round of talks, calling it ‘not exactly elegant’. He argued that hosting a meeting between representatives of two Orthodox countries at a Catholic venue would be ‘uncomfortable’ for the Vatican itself, despite Pope Leo XIV’s offer to host and Trump publicly supporting the idea. Moscow also opposes having any US or European representatives at the table. That leaves Putin’s lead negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, free to threaten the Ukrainian side with more war and deaths unless they concede to absurd terms: withdrawal from four regions that Russia hasn’t fully captured, shrinking Ukraine’s one-million-strong army to 50,000 soldiers, and even giving Moscow a veto over future western arms shipments to Ukraine.

Ukrainians who once dared to hope for peace now see more war as inevitable, unless Ukraine’s allies abandon their recent empty sanctions threats and come up with real ones to force Russia to accept a ceasefire. Unless that happens – and US Senator Lindsey Graham stops bragging about the largest US sanctions package against Russia and finally pushes it through the Senate – thousands more will die soon.

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• Russia is massing troops along the Ukrainian border ahead of a new offensive. More below.
• The 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia is still ongoing, despite Donald Trump’s claim that it had been ‘completed’ today.
• Trump said Russia and Ukraine should negotiate directly without mediators, after speaking with Vladimir Putin. He also ruled out new US sanctions on Russia.
• A mass Ukrainian drone strike targeted Moscow, with all four of the capital’s airports temporarily shut yesterday.
• Ukrainian defence firms issued a public letter to Volodymyr Zelensky urging him to lift restrictions on drone exports to help the sector grow.
• A Russian missile hit a Ukrainian military training ground in Sumy, killing six and injuring dozens. The unit’s commander has been suspended.
• Andriy Portnov, a controversial ex-Ukrainian politician sanctioned by the US over corruption allegations, was shot dead in Madrid.
• Kyiv will ask the EU next week to seize Russian assets and sanction buyers of Russian oil to increase pressure on Moscow.
• Ukraine’s parliament has submitted a draft resolution to label North Korea an aggressor state over its military support for Russia.
• Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s semiconductor plant in the Oryol region, producing parts for warplanes and missiles.
• Pope Leo XIV offered the Vatican as the venue for the next round of Ukraine-Russia peace talks.
• The Trump administration is considering deporting nearly 200,000 Ukrainian refugees. Those who leave voluntarily may get $1,000 in assistance.

In pictures

Quote of the week

‘President [Trump] believes that right now, if we start threatening sanctions, the Russians will stop talking. There’s value in us being able to talk to them and drive them to get to the table’

– Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, rejecting criticism over the administration’s Ukraine policy at a Senate hearing

The war in numbers

New UK sanctions on Russia

100

Against companies involved in supply chain of Russian weapons

Americans who believe Putin is ‘stalling’ peace talks

66%

Including 78% of Democrat voters and 54% of Republican voters

Americans who say Trump should continue to arm Ukraine and sanction Russia

62%

And 64% say the US should give Ukraine security guarantees

.

Wider reading on the war

Why the Trump-Putin dialogue is so dangerous for Ukraine – The Spectator

Finland ‘preparing for the worst’ as Russia expands military presence near border – The Guardian

Ukrainian children in the UK ‘forced’ to study Russian GCSE – The Telegraph

As Russia’s fiber optic drones flood the battlefield, Ukraine is racing to catch up –  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine and Europe are on their own now – Bloomberg

A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk