The declaration of a state of emergency on the peninsula marks a significant political and military setback
Pressure is no longer confined to the battlefield Credit: Reuters
By Hamish de Breton-Gordon
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon OBE was an army officer for 23 years, reaching the rank of colonel. In 1991, he saw active service in Iraq with the 14th/20th King’s Hussars as part of the First Gulf War, was commanding officer of the UK’s Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Regiment, and Nato’s Rapid Reaction CBRN Battalion.
Published 26 June 2026
Crimea has long been the jewel in Putin’s crown and the most visible symbol of his ambition to restore Russian power after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The loss of influence over former Soviet territories and in many cases their alignment with the West has remained a persistent grievance for the former KGB officer.
Yet the campaign he launched to reverse that trend now appears increasingly unsustainable. Putin’s position looks more vulnerable than at any point since the invasion began, and the signs of decline are becoming impossible to ignore.
The pressure is no longer confined to the battlefield. In Moscow, Ukrainian drones and missiles are demonstrating an ability to strike deep inside Russia with increasing regularity, exposing weaknesses in the Kremlin’s air defences. In Crimea, meanwhile, a once thriving Black Sea holiday destination is now full of residents and tourists seeking to leave. What was presented as Russia’s greatest strategic prize is beginning to resemble a liability.
The declaration of a state of emergency in Crimea today was a significant political and military setback for Putin. For the first time, Russian authorities have publicly acknowledged the severity of the situation on the peninsula. Measures that amount to a form of martial law underline the scale of the challenge facing the Kremlin there.
Reports of fuel shortages, power disruptions, and growing civilian concern paint a picture of a region under strain. Sevastopol, once the proud home of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, has seen that fleet withdraw following repeated Ukrainian strikes. Long queues on routes out of Crimea suggest that many residents no longer view the peninsula as a safe place to remain. Supplies of basics such as vehicle fuel are now intermittent, due to Ukrainian drone strikes on the “land bridge” through Donetsk and Luhansk
Crimea was once portrayed by the Kremlin as the great success story of Putin’s strategic vision. Today it risks becoming the clearest indication yet that his so-called Special Military Operation is failing. When Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, Western governments responded with limited resolve. Many European nations continued reducing their military capabilities while enjoying the benefits of the post-Cold War peace dividend.
Putin was further emboldened when the UK, thanks in part to Ed Miliband, stymied UK and US plans to destroy President Assad’s chemical arsenal after he murdered 1,500 of his own people with the deadly nerve agent Sarin. Putin concluded that the West lacked both the will and the means to challenge his ambitions.
That perception was reinforced by a series of geopolitical crises in which Western deterrence appeared weak or inconsistent. By the time Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin seemingly expected another muted response. Instead, Ukraine resisted with extraordinary determination, supported by Western military assistance that has fundamentally altered the course of the conflict.
From a military perspective, Crimea remains critical. Russian forces have relied heavily on the peninsula as a logistical hub for supplying troops operating in southern Ukraine, and the western anchor for the line of conflict.
As Ukrainian strikes have disrupted routes through occupied territory, Crimea and the Kerch bridge have become even more important as a way to supply Russia’s forces on the Dnipro. If Ukraine can continue to degrade Russia’s ability to use the peninsula as a secure base, the consequences for Russian military operations could be profound.
The strategic picture for Putin is therefore deteriorating. He appears unable to protect either Moscow or Crimea fully, two locations of immense political and symbolic importance. Western security officials have suggested that his position may now be more fragile than at any time since the Wagner mutiny. Whether that vulnerability translates into meaningful political change remains uncertain, but it undoubtedly increases pressure on the Kremlin to seek a way out of an increasingly costly conflict.
For Europe and its allies, this may represent a rare strategic opportunity. Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable innovation on the modern battlefield, combining technology, adaptability, and determination to offset Russia’s numerical advantages. The lesson for Western militaries is clear: Ukraine is not merely defending itself; it is reshaping contemporary warfare in real time.
Those concerned about who might eventually succeed Putin should remember that it is difficult to imagine a leader more committed to this war than the man who launched it. Russia has suffered staggering losses in personnel and equipment. Any future leadership will inherit a weakened military, a strained economy, and a population increasingly affected by the consequences of prolonged conflict.
The strategic environment confronting Putin’s successor is therefore likely to be very different from the one he inherited.
Crimea was once the symbol of Putin’s rise. It may yet become the symbol of his decline.
Burnham will be toast if he doesn’t give the Armed Forces what they
Hamish is very pro-Ukraine, so his articles are always trolled to fuck.
Let’s start with one scummer before the good stuff. Unfortunately the POS is using the name of a great Beatles song for his handle :
For The Benefit Of Mr Kite
HDBG – a Putin obsessive, who has been peddling biased narratives for years about the Ukraine proxy conflict.
Another copium article, Crimea is clearly a part of The Russian Federation, and that isnt about to change, the facts are these, both sides are hitting infrastructure and logistics, but that doesnt win terrority, and from all battlefield reports, the Armed Forces of Ukraine is ceded ground across the near entirety of the line of contact.
But rest assured DHBG is not keen to discuss that, hence the old trope about Putin …
Fuck off and eat shit Kite.
David Walker
A question for today’s Russian experts: Is it remotely possible that another Mikhail Gorbachev – or even Nikita Khrushchev – could emerge to lead Russia?
Phillip Mason
Ukraine should have taken out that bridge at the start of the war.
Stuart Wilder
RINOP Vladimir Putin 1952-2026
Let’s hope that like Mussolini he’s hung on a lampost.
Marc RB
We were assured by our pro Putin posters that the developing shortages in Crimea were short term. Is this a snowflake overreaction from the authorities actually on the ground or a genuine acceptance of the dire consequences they face?
Bad Looking Rooster
Reply to Marc RB
They’re in a deep pile of something smelly I reckon.
Margaret Pike
Putin will burn everything, before he loses this war.
Do not assume he will react with reason and rationality, if I lived in the Baltic States I would be very worried. It would be insanely stupid, unless he thought America would break the NATO treaty, and Europe would be paralysed by NATO countries also refusing to send more trod etc. Germany might have great difficulty with doing that, they are simply not ready militarily yet.
If he could attack a Baltic State, yet NATO not be prepared to go to war over this, his place in Russian History is secure. We are a member of NATO, but I do now wonder how many Telegraph readers, would much care about that? Amazing to me, since right wingers in my day, were ultra patriotic and very pro NATO.
Marc RB
Reply to Margaret Pike
I think the heavily armed Baltic states might have their own response irrespective of NATO. Putin is failing to defeat Ukraine as it is what makes you think he would succeed in a wider war?
Scott Duncan
Alas Russia has never been able to produce a pragmatic leader who cares about the happiness of its citizens rather than their personal egotistical aspirations. From the czars to the commissars to the autocrats of Putins Russian Federation the state and the leader come first the people a distant third. Whom ever follows Putin will focus on retrenching his control over the Russian people, rebuilding its military and funneling as much money as possible into their personal coffers.
Brian Box
Putin has the 2nd most powerful army in Ukraine 🇺🇦.
Tiny Putin has lost his big war,
He knows it.
Reminiscent of Hitler, how he will play his last cards is the question.
Ivan Kuzyk
Where have all the trolls gone? They used to show up in great numbers whenever pieces like this one appeared. Maybe they are stuck in traffic on the bridge out of Crimea. Or perhaps they have been made redundant by their bosses as the Russian economy implodes. Of course there will always be people like Russell Hart (see his comments below) who continue to believe that Russia is still slowly winning the war. After all, Putin recently told cadets that the Ukrainian attacks on Moscow and energy infrastructure were just diversions by the Nazis to draw attention away from recent gains on the battlefield. The cadets didn’t seem amused or convinced. I’m sure Mr. Putin is reassured that men like Mr. Hart still get the message.
StepBy Step
The West should long ago have given Ukraine the means to destroy the Kerch bridge. Take that down and then focus on the land bridge to starve the Russian invaders out. Putin would be removed, hopefully dead, in very short order.
Many lives would have been saved had this been done in 2022. Mostly Russian lives.
Denman Groves
Keep attacking
Right will win in the end
Bless Ukraine
🇺🇦 you have the resolve
The west must not let you down
Kevin Bidgood
Ukraine attacks Moscow key infrastructure. Russia moves its defenses to protect Moscow. Ukraine takes advantage of the openings. And they can do it with their own weaponry. Meanwhile, Europe bolsters its own defense capabilities. More countries join NATO. Putin puppets are voted out of office. It’s not fast but seems undeniable. Well done Vlad for thinking this through!
Mark Jones
Like a ratchet, it’s only going to get more difficult for the Moscow cannon fodder on the front line to be supplied via Crimea to Kherson and via the R 280 Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia to Kherson corridor. The Sea of Azov in theory offers the prospect of ships unloading military supplies men, ammunition, food, fuel, etc from Russia to occupied Ukrainian ports by the invaders. In reality these are now within Ukraine’s extended drones.
Autumn brings the mud for the dwindling Russian transport trucks supplying the front line. But the real horror for poorly equipped Russian troops is going to be Ukranian winter where in it can drop down to -20c.
A tank without fuel for heating and movement for example becomes essentially a static fridge.
Putin will have an increasing problem maintaining front line discipline. Which is why blocking troops will be used for those Russian troops deciding that walking back to 2012 borders is their only option and likely result on increasing Red on Red conflict.
Re David Walker’s question, Khrushchev was an asshole, but much less evil than Lenin or Stalin. Ditto Gorby. Although in his dotage, the old bastard went full putler.
If putler is forced out or killed, his replacement could well be another psychopathic genocide-loving bastard.
The only acceptable replacement for putler would be a fully-fledged democrat like Gary Kasparov. Khodorkovsky ruled himself out, as he prefers to operate behind the scenes in a support role.
What about thst drunk Medy? He was head orc for a short while.
He’s putler’s even more tiny butt boy.
I guess his fate would be similar to putler, Lavrov and all rest of the murder gang if there was to be a liberal revolution.
If Ukraine can cut off Crimea and keep it cut off, the peninsula is untenable. We will have to wait and see what the moscovian gutter rat will then do. His options are few and weak.
10km queues to get out of Crimea. Once the orcs have all fucked off back to their shithole, that bridge can be taken out.
To revisit a comment I made earlier:
The indigenous people of Crimea are the Tatars. They choose to be UKRAINIAN.
Firstly, all putler’s post 2014 putinaZi imports must go or be kicked out. All their property and assets must return to Ukrainian ownership.
Ethnic Russians who have lived in Crimea since before 2014 are only there there because of the policies of Stalin and Lenin to swamp the peninsula with vermin. They must renounce ruZZian citizenship and lose their putinaZi passports. If they refuse : kick the fuckers out.