May 22, 2025

by Ruclan Shostak

May 22, 2025

A problem that should not be demonized.

Ukrainian bloggers, institutions, and economists are sounding the alarm: “The country lacks people, we have lost almost half of the nation due to the war. There is no one to work.” Of course, the problem of population outflow cannot be ignored, but let’s not demonize it—let’s look at the numbers before making loud statements

I would like to dispel a few myths on this topic. As retailers, we clearly feel the outflow and inflow of the population, and I can confidently say—it’s not all that bad.

I expect a lot of hate because my calculations differ from the statements of most bloggers and the arguments of HR professionals and everyone who works with human capital. They can be understood, because, relying on the history of global population outflow, it is much easier to argue about the lack of people.

However, allow me to express a different point of view.

Those who left

One by one.

Before the full-scale war, Ukraine had a population of 38 million people(excluding Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). Over three years, Russia occupied part of Ukrainian territory with a population of no more than 1 million people, including those who left these territories for Ukraine and Europe. It turns out: 38 million – 1 million = 37 million.

Let’s continue counting.

How many Ukrainians have left? According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of April 17, 2025, 6.3 million Ukrainian refugees are registered in Europe and another 560,000 outside of it. That is, a total of 6.9 million Ukrainians have received refugee status or another form of protection worldwide.

In addition, according to the Center for Economic Strategy, as of November 2024: 43 million people crossed the border of Ukraine since the beginning of the war. 39.3 million returned. The difference is about 3.7 million people remain abroad. That is, not as many people have left as it seems. And according to UN statistics, 6.9 million Ukrainians have refugee status.

Read also: 

Ukraine on brink of demographic catastrophe

However, there are two significant problems with this statistic:

1. Official statistics include those Ukrainians who were already labor migrants at the time of the full-scale invasion. Many of them applied for refugee status to obtain official documents, social benefits, and get a more attractive job. There are quite a few such people. 3 million migrants before the war permanently lived and worked abroad. They took advantage of the opportunities and obtained refugee status. These people fell into the official migration statistics. Simple math: 6.9 million – 3 million = 3.9 million people who left Ukraine precisely because of the war.

Let’s continue counting.

2. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians obtained refugee status and money but then returned to Ukraine or moved to another country, which gives a significant error in the statistics. For example, in Poland, 1.8 million Ukrainians have refugee status, but only 960,000 permanently reside there; in the Czech Republic, 615,000 versus 354,000. Many live abroad but often come home. From all this, it follows that significantly fewer Ukrainians live abroad than have left since the beginning of the war. Mainly, these are women with children, most of whom will return home after the war. Thus, from 3.9 million emigrants, another 2 million who live in two countries can be subtracted. There will be 1.9 million people who have actually left Ukraine.

Summing up

38 million pre-war population – 1 million occupied territories – 1.9 million real refugees permanently residing abroad = 35.1 million people live in Ukraine, including those who periodically travel abroad and back and will return home after the war.