Svitlana Moronets

Nov 8, 2024

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• Volodymyr Zelensky said he is being pressured to make concessions to Russia. More below.
• Joe Biden is planning to send Ukraine £4.6bn in military aid before his term ends, fearing the Trump administration might stop support.
• Kyiv has confirmed the first battles between Ukrainian and North Korean soldiers in Russia’s Kursk region.
• A recent poll shows that 63% of Ukrainians are willing to endure the war as long as it takes to secure a victory.
• Ukraine has launched a drone attack on a Russian naval base in Dagestan, reportedly damaging two vessels.
• Germany will provide most of the £3bn it has pledged to Ukraine, even if next year’s budget is not approved in time due to the collapse of the country’s coalition government.
• Zelensky has refused to sign a bilateral document on security with Hungary as it does not include a clause supporting Ukraine’s Nato membership.
• South Korea is ‘not ruling out’ directly arming Ukraine if cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang deepens.
• The US and its allies are working on a joint response to North Korea’s involvement in the war against Ukraine.
• Warsaw will host a conference next week to discuss rebuilding Ukraine’s war-damaged energy infrastructure.
• Google Maps has removed the locations of Ukrainian weapons systems that were exposed in a recent update.
• Poland’s deputy prime minister has accused Zelensky of trying to drag his country into the war by asking it to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine.
• The International Chamber of Commerce has cut arbitration costs to boost foreign investment in the reconstruction of Ukraine.

.

Wider reading on the war

Why Volodymyr Zelensky may welcome Donald Trump’s victory – Economist

How Ukraine became a world war – Foreign Affairs

With Trump back in White House, can Ukraine opt for nuclear deterrence? – Kyiv Independent

Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine. Now he must decide how – Wall Street Journal

How Turkey became Putin’s ‘pit stop’ for selling camouflaged fuel to the EU – Politico

In July, Keir Starmer gathered leaders from across Europe at Blenheim Palace to confirm their ‘steadfast support’ for Ukraine, no matter who won the US election. But yesterday, Volodymyr Zelensky said this meeting prompted discussions about Ukraine making concessions to Vladimir Putin. Speaking from Budapest, Zelensky reminded allies: ‘The war is on our soil. We are open to any constructive ideas to achieve a just peace for our country, but it is up to Ukraine to decide what should and should not be on the agenda for ending this war.’

Donald Trump’s election victory has cracked open Pandora’s box, with allies and the media speculating about how he plans to end the war in Ukraine. He has repeatedly claimed he will end the war in ‘24 hours’ and get the US ‘out’ of Ukraine, but nobody knows what the plan is (if there is one). Zelensky said Trump hasn’t shared the details of this plan with him, and emphasised that there can be no peace deal without Ukraine and no ceasefire without real security guarantees.

Both Kyiv and Moscow say there is no plan that can end the war in one day. Reports suggest that Trump’s advisers have been offering him different ideas to choose from. The latest is to freeze the conflict on the current front lines and create the 800-mile demilitarised zone. How it would be enforced remains unclear, though an anonymous Trump aide told the Wall Street Journal that Washington would press European allies to send troops. Under this plan, Ukraine’s Nato membership would be delayed by at least 20 years in return for ongoing weapons supplies.

Another peace proposal is to halt all military aid to Ukraine unless it agrees to negotiate with Russia. Kyiv may hope that Europe will continue to arm it, but there is no certainty that European leaders are willing to make this commitment – or defy Washington’s will. In theory, Putin could be pressured into talks for fear that the US would ramp up its support for Ukraine if he rejects a ceasefire. 

The Kremlin, however, insists the West must accept ‘current realities’ – claiming Russia is winning the war – and negotiate on Putin’s terms. Putin sees a Trump presidency as an opportunity to reset US-Russia relations, but only if Washington lifts sanctions on Moscow and stops sending aid to Ukraine. ‘The objectives of the Special Military Operation remain unchanged and will be achieved,’ said former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev after Trump’s victory.

Putin’s ‘peace’ terms require Ukraine to surrender the four regions occupied by Russia (plus Crimea), to hand over major cities such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and to give up on its dream of joining Nato. Additionally, Ukraine’s military would be drastically reduced, with an end to all arms supplies, effectively leaving it defenceless against future attacks. Zelensky has said that appeasing Putin would be suicide, not only for Ukraine, but for Europe as a whole.

Russia, despite slow but steady advances in the Donetsk region, has no realistic path to victory unless the West cuts aid to Kyiv. Trump, more than any other leader, could use this leverage to push Zelensky toward concessions. Whether he decides to do that – or surprises Putin by taking Ukraine’s side – will become clear in January. Until then, the war goes on.

Quote of the week

‘There should be no illusions that a just peace can be bought by showing weakness. Peace is a reward only for the strong.’

– Volodymyr Zelensky urges Europe to show unity and adopt a ‘peace through strength’ approach to aggression from Russia and its allies.

In pictures

Zaporizhzhia: A mother and her one-year-old (left), who were killed after a Russian guided bomb hit an apartment building yesterday. Ten people died and more than 40 were injured. (Credit: Anna Pavlyshyna, her sister)

.

The war in numbers

North Korean soldiers in Kursk

11,000

Including 500 officers and three generals

Applications to the Ukrainian Legion in Poland

500 per month

The force is made up of Ukrainians trained by the Poles

Russian drone strikes last month

4,300 Shahed-type

A record number of strikes against Ukraine

A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk