15.02.2026

The disconnection of the Russian occupation army from Starlink became a big problem for the enemy, and created favorable opportunities for the Ukrainian defenders for counterattacks . Currently, the enemy is trying to find other ways to restore communication, but all of them are too vulnerable. The slowdown, or even the shutdown of the Telegram messenger, in which the occupiers coordinated their actions, also played a role. The main reason for this step is that the Ukrainian spy network worked effectively through Telegram.

Can these problems force the enemy to cancel or postpone the spring offensive? Everything will depend on how and when he can restore his connection. At the same time, the enemy is currently betting on the creation of reserves and is starting to protect his “cannon fodder” – personnel. It is their destruction, brought to the level of 50 thousand per month, that will help Ukraine survive in 2026.

This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by the executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, Dmytro Zhmaylo .

– Immediately after the Russian occupation army blocked Starlink terminals and slowed down the Telegram messenger, the Defense Forces began to conduct local counterattacks on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions . In your opinion, can these events really be linked?

– The story is that the Russians suddenly found themselves without communication, despite the fact that in 2023-2024, the Chief of Staff of the occupation army Gerasimov tried to establish an alternative communication system, without Starlink. But still, technological progress took off. Because it was convenient for the Russians. There is Starlink, there is Telegram, you can coordinate strikes and actions of assault groups. It was quite convenient. And then everything abruptly ended.

Now they are pulling their analogues, but their satellites are much higher, respectively, the connection, the stability of the signal is much worse. Somewhere they pull fiber optics, somewhere they deploy satellite antennas that look like ordinary ones. They cannot be hidden, covered, like Starlink, covered with fabric, because in this case the quality of communication drops significantly. So they are visible. Russian Z-warriors complain that our electronic warfare means are effective against these networks.

They are also trying to pull forward WiFi – bridges, that is, fiber optics, and all this is more vulnerable than Starlink. Antennas can be seen, artillery can cut off all these communications. Thus, the Russians simply went too far when they started putting Starlink on their weapons, they started destroying civilians 60 kilometers from Pavlograd.

There are terrible footage on the Internet when an elderly couple tried to evacuate with the help of a Ukrainian drone that was taking them out. The enemy struck, first the grandmother died, then they finished off her husband. Our soldiers saw this and could not save them. Then the Russians attacked the children who were riding on the sled, and only thanks to the fact that the REP suppressed not the controllability of the drone, but the video connection, the enemy missed the children.

So the Russians had communication problems, and our forces used it as a chance to counterattack . The Russians call it a counteroffensive, but it’s done deliberately, because the commanders on the ground always have a plan – capture, capture, capture. They burn manpower, but the successes are much more modest. They demand results, so they draw the line of combat contact much further west.

Then all this lies are revealed, commanders are changed, very often their deputies are appointed who saw the public flogging that happened to their predecessors, and they begin to grind the “meat” even more actively. And then such a window of opportunity opened for them, Starlink also came along, and it became very convenient to push the line back in the reports. They say, you see, there is no Internet, and Ukrainian forces moved us.

But the Ukrainian army is conducting a sweep in the gray zone . We have a large kill zone of 15-20 kilometers. Russians are infiltrating there – they run, sit somewhere in holes, in houses, in basements, in the hope that reinforcements will come to them and they will be able to continue the assault. These groups are isolated. They attack 1-2-3 people, trying to pass the kill zone, because many of them die there. Therefore, our forces decided to take advantage of this, having, in particular, Starlink.

The 33rd assault regiment cleared Ternuvaty and the territory south of it. This also applies to the Dnipropetrovsk region, the settlement of Berezove, where the 29th army is attacking. In this way, the gray zone is being cleared. But for the Russians, this is clearly panic. In addition, Commander-in-Chief Syrsky said that a quarter of all clashes are precisely the actions of the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine, which in some areas thwarted the enemy’s ambitions.

Now regarding Telegram. I have not received confirmation that it is blocked in the occupied territories. It is not slowed down there, but this also requires appropriate decisions from Ukraine.

Why Telegram? This is protest activity in the national republics, coordination of the action, because it is an uncontrolled network. But the main reason is the development of our agent network, GUR, SBU, Special Operations Forces on the territory of the Russian Federation. We see footage not only of overflights, but also of sabotage, arsons, etc. We recruit ordinary citizens of the Russian Federation, as well as military and representatives of higher echelons. Because all these “Webs”, our special operations, the destruction of the Russian generals would be impossible without the activities of agents.

Russians recruit teenagers, our compatriots, through Telegram, use them as disposables, and very often then hand them over to the Defense Forces or liquidate them so as not to pay the money.

But we pay money [to the russians–OFP] for performing our tasks in the interests of Ukraine. This has become so widespread that the Russians were forced to block Telegram in the Russian Federation and restrict it, despite the fact that, in fact, they need it.

Regarding the occupied territories, I’m not sure, because Telegram is used a lot in the Russian army. There are chat rooms of companies, units, etc. It’s much easier there. The enemy will definitely try to restore communication, but it really gives us some time for our activities.

– How does this situation look in the context of a possible spring offensive by the enemy, which is being talked about a lot now and for which the enemy has allegedly already begun to prepare? Is it possible to thwart the offensive or force the enemy to postpone it thanks to these events?

– It all depends on how quickly the Russians restore their capabilities, establish a communication system, and perhaps revise the tactics of using their troops. The winter period, adverse weather conditions, severe frosts, the Starlink outage – all this has affected the activity of Russian troops along the line of combat contact.

Where they are still moving, and, unfortunately, it is difficult for us to stop them there , is the Siversky and Limansky directions. There are heavy battles in the Yarovaya area, but, fortunately, there is some lack of coordination between the Russian units. There they are advancing, slowly, but advancing.

In the Hulyaipil direction, we shot down their ambitions, somewhere we intercepted the initiative. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, we also shot down. Therefore, the enemy decides to finally accumulate strategic reserves . Now we are talking about about 100 thousand. They will continue their mercenary campaign, they began to save their “meat” more for assault operations. That is, the main task is to accumulate as much as possible, wait for spring-summer, so that the “green” appears – and then move with renewed vigor.

But it won’t be some kind of one-time action, when hundreds of thousands of Russians will rush in, break through our positions, and Donetsk will fall. No. It will be the kind of pressure that we see now. Perhaps there will be some escalation. But they announce offensives three times a year, starting with a full-scale invasion. However, their capabilities in 2022-23 and now are two absolutely big differences. There is no equipment, there is no sea, the quality of the Russian infantry is falling. That is why the Russians have taken this path – greater accumulation.

Pokrovsko-Mirnograd agglomeration. Unfortunately, we already hold only a few positions in Mirnograd. In Pokrovsko, we still have positions in the north. But what is the main essence of these operations? Initially, the Russians had 156 thousand main troops there and 50 thousand marines in reserve. All this has been deployed now, but they do not yet fully control the city. There is a large-scale grinding and, most importantly, the enemy’s offensive potential has been knocked down . That is, the grouping is very badly torn apart. Therefore, they need to accumulate.

I remind you that this is not the first year that they had to solve the Donetsk region issue. First there was the Druzhkiv-Konstantinovka operation. They were preparing Dobropillya, but we cut off their advance. They planned to put parallel pressure on Kostyantynivka, Chasiv Yar and further north. Then the Dobropillya operation, pressure from the east, to first bypass Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka, and then the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration with parallel pressure in the north near Svyatohirsk. Thus, they were to achieve their goal – the complete occupation of Donetsk region as a priority with a repulsive strike and the second priority in the Hulyaipil direction.

They said they promised Trump that they would definitely defeat the Ukrainian army now, because the Donetsk issue is the main reason why there is still no progress in the peace process. Russia cannot fail to complete this issue, otherwise it will be clear that it has lost. The Russians want to save face, freeze themselves, so that in 3-4 years they can start a new, bloodier aggression.

Our command has an understanding of this and a vision of how to thwart these enemy plans. In particular, bringing the level of Russian losses to 50 thousand per month is our chance to survive . The first to voice this was Robert Brovdi, a Magyar, commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces. This thesis is also supported by Defense Minister Fedorov. That is why relatively large sums were allocated to Ramstein, in particular, for Ukrainian drones, because there is still a critical shortage of money.

So, we strive to achieve this goal – simply to knock out the enemy’s manpower. Even drone units say that the priority now is the person, the serviceman, and equipment, especially not armored, but light, cars, buggies, motorcycles, is already in the background. This is our vision of how to survive the confrontation of 2026.

The separate Presidential Brigade named after Hetman Bohdan Khmelnytsky defends Ukraine in the east, protects the Kyiv region and the sky over the capital. It is its fighters who shoot down “Shaheeds” and missiles during air raids. You can join the Presidential Brigade to serve among worthy people and fight the enemy in the position that suits you. The brigade has a number of combat and non-combat vacancies.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/blokuvannya-starlink-zirve-vesnyanij-nastup-voroga-zhmajlo-ozvuchiv-prognoz.htm