Dec 6, 2024

Svitlana Moronets

A ceasefire in Ukraine is far from being agreed, yet Poland is already preparing for its collapse. In recent months, Warsaw has been digging an anti-tank ditch along its border with Russia and Belarus – and has decided to extend it to Ukraine. The 400-mile-long ‘East Shield’ will almost double in size and include minefields and bunkers, anti-drone systems and AI-powered defences to protect Poland from possible invasion. Ukraine’s closest neighbour clearly puts little trust in Donald Trump’s promise of peace with Russia: if Vladimir Putin rearms and comes back for more, Poland must be ready to meet battle-hardened Russian troops at its border.

Donald Tusk called the £2.5 billion project an ‘investment in peace’ to deter and discourage any possible aggressor. The Polish Prime Minister explained the need to extend the barricade to Ukraine as a way for Poles ‘to feel safer along the entire eastern border’. Warsaw understands that Ukraine’s security is pivotal for Poland’s security; it has been aiding Kyiv with heavy armour since the early days of the full-scale war, supplying tanks – more than 300 now – when others sent helmets. These efforts could soon be undermined by a rushed peace deal: Donald Trump wants to be lauded as a ‘peacemaker’ as soon as possible, with no real plan on how to make the armistice last. Tusk insists that Poland, as a ‘front line country’, must have a voice in Trump’s peace efforts. Decisions on the war, he declared recently, cannot be made ‘over the heads of Ukrainians – or ours’.

Giving Ukraine a ‘security guarantee’ by deploying thousands of European troops to guard the 700-mile front line for years is hardly a viable solution. General Viktor Muzhenko, Ukraine’s former army chief, warns that such a plan is not only difficult to execute but could also lead to disaster: ‘It is extremely dangerous that more than a million people with a vast array of weapons will be stationed on both sides of this line. Where is the guarantee that there won’t be accidental shots, triggering some kind of reaction?’. Russian and Ukrainian soldiers kept exchanging fire after the Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 ‘ceasefires’. Caskets kept arriving from the front line for eight years. What happens if a Nato soldier is killed in Ukraine?

Nato’s eastern flank is growing anxious about whether America will leave it to fend for itself if Moscow attacks. Trump threatened to let Russia ‘do whatever the hell they want’ to any Nato country which fails to meet defence spending guidelines (at least 2 per cent of GDP). Poland is leading the charge with double that figure, and the Baltic states are among the top spenders, but Trump’s recent statements must make them wonder whether Washington will come to the rescue if the conflict with Russia evolves.

Putin arrived in Belarus earlier today to sign a treaty on mutual security guarantees, which states that any weapon, including nuclear, can be used for defence. The country’s President, Alexander Lukashenko, said he was ‘worried’ about the situation on the border with Poland and Lithuania because, he claims, Nato troops are gathering forces there. He asked Putin to deploy Oreshnik missiles to Belarus and grant Minsk the authority to choose its own targets. Putin replied that this would be possible in the second half of next year.

The Baltic states take Moscow’s threats seriously, jointly reinforcing their air defences, armies and borders with Russia. Dragon’s teeth, minefields and barbed wire won’t stop armoured vehicles from flooding in, but could buy some time for reinforcements to arrive. Ukraine once envisioned its own wall with Russia. Construction began after the 2014 invasion, but Kyiv lacked the funds – and time – to build the fortifications properly, while several contractors and border guards faced arrests for embezzlement. The fence failed to stop Russian tanks in February 2022.

Kateryna Stepanenko, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, tells me the calculus behind Putin’s invasion has been not only to ensure that Ukraine remains under Russia’s sphere of influence, but also to break the Nato apart. ‘He wants to prove to the international community that Nato is just a paper tiger, that it is not going to live up to its promises and won’t be able to organise a collective response even if there is a significant threat,’ Stepanenko says. ‘Putin rose to power with the anti-Nato, anti-western grievance and must sustain it to keep Russians supporting him.’ Ukraine’s neighbours are right to spend heavily on defence, preparing for the worst – if Europe wants peace, every country must do the same.

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Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• Ukrainian officials met Donald Trump’s national security adviser and his Ukraine envoy in Washington for talks on the war.
• Kyiv asked Nato members for 20 air defence systems to prevent blackouts at a summit in Brussels.
• The Biden administration will provide Ukraine with thousands of additional artillery rounds, rockets and hundreds of armored vehicles by mid-January.
• Russian troops have gathered 300 boats to cross the Dnipro River as they prepare for a mass assault near Kherson.
• The mayor of Dniprorudne, an occupied city, was tortured to death in Russian captivity, according to a Ukrainian official. At least six Ukrainian mayors are being held in Russian prisons.
• Trump’s peace plan may involve Ukraine giving up Russian-occupied territories and not joining Nato, Reuters reported.
• Kyiv will refuse any security guarantee which doesn’t guarantee Nato membership, the foreign ministry said.
• Russia is constructing a third air defence tower near the Kerch bridge to protect it from Ukrainian strikes.
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Kyiv for the first time during the war, and pledged $650m in military aid.
• US House Speaker Mike Johnson has rejected Joe Biden’s request to grant $24bn in additional aid for Ukraine.
• Top managers and owners of a popular Ukrainian online casino have been accused of sharing user location data, including that of military personnel, with Russia.
• Odesa City Council has approved the dismantling of monuments with Russian and Soviet symbols, including a statue of Alexander Pushkin.
• Russia and Belarus plan to establish three centres to jointly train soldiers.

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Wider reading on the war

Kremlin stages Oreshnik propaganda blitz as nuclear threats lose their potency – Moscow Times

Is Ukraine heading towards a Korean-style demilitarised zone? – The Spectator

Ukrainian troops worried about fate of Kursk operation – Kyiv Independent

Russia uses civilians as ‘target practice’ for killer drones – Financial Times

How and why Kyiv changed its stance in relations with Nato – European Pravda

In pictures:

Chechen Republic: Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov meets Ukrainian prisoners of war and threatens to use them as human shields after a Ukrainian drone attack damaged a special police regiment building in the centre of Grozny. (Kadyrov on Telegram)

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Quote of the week:

‘[The Budapest Memorandum] is a good reminder that no decisions about long-term security solutions at the expense of Ukrainian security are acceptable. This document failed to provide Ukraine with security, as well as transatlantic security. We must avoid repeating such mistakes.’

– Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s foreign minister, said Ukraine would not repeat the mistakes made under the Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan gave up their nuclear weapons for security assurances from the US, the UK, France, China and Russia.

The war in numbers:

Russia’s fall offensive cost them

50 soldiers per km²

Russia took 81,000 casualties in September and October

Ukraine to open more mental health centres

200

Focused on treating children, veterans and displaced persons

Russia illegally drafted Crimeans in 2024

5,500

Russia has drafted 50,000 Crimeans in the past decade

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A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk