June 9, 2024
By OFP
Why is there a very high probability that nuclear threats from the Muscovy – aka russian federation – are mere empty threats?
Fundamentally, the focus will be on the potential use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine and not against a NATO country. A nuclear strike on NATO is too far-fetched and so any discussions about it are moot. Despite the occasional spewing of such nonsense, even the wickedest fascist in muscovy’s regime knows that nuking NATO would provoke an immediate and devastating counterstrike, which serves no purpose but to create a possible escalation that could end life as we know it on this planet. But that’s another story. There are other reasons why a nuclear strike by mafia land is unlikely, even if such a strike were aimed exclusively at Ukraine.
China
The first aspect is the bearing of the muscovy’s most important supporter; China.
It’s no secret that China is the superior entity in this little partnership. China’s point of view about the use of nukes is quite clear and has been made public numerous times already. In short, Beijing is against any use of nuclear weapons, as it would violate the country’s longstanding “No First Use” policy, and according to a number of reports, this standing is expanded to include Russia and its war with Ukraine.
But, would the mafia state ignore Peking’s wishes and use nukes anyhow, especially in the face of a looming defeat? This is a legitimate question that deserves an answer. To make it clear, anything is possible, although this option is quite unlikely to happen.
Moscow, being the subordinate of Peking, is in a poor position to ignore its benefactor’s wishes. If China stops all trade and aid to russia today, as a possible consequence of Russia using the nuclear option, the fascists in the Kremlin will have to sue for peace tomorrow. The Russian federation is so deeply dependent on China in so many ways that a break in their relationship would be catastrophic for the mafia state. Russia can survive a defeat in Ukraine but it can’t survive without its big brother. Or, at best, it would be quite difficult to do so.
Looking more closely at muscovy’s incessant saber rattling, it’s quite conceivable to visualize Xi forbidding muscovy to use nukes, maybe even in a roundabout way, yet allowing him to freely use nuclear threats as much as he wants to help intimidate Western leaders and their people. Xi knows very well that there is a big difference between threatening with something and following through with those threats.
Certainly, the whole world has watched with great interest how muscovy has done just that and caused a state of panic across the free world. As a matter of fact, putting various Western leaders in panic-mode has been the case for a number of years, even before the full-scale invasion. This allowed the Crimea to be a de-facto Russian territory and let the little war in Donbas to simmer for eight years.
Xi, above all, is watching all of these developments very carefully and there is no doubt that he and his regime have learned valuable lessons, which aided them to draw important conclusions about using the threat of nuclear weapons as a reliable leverage against the free world. Don’t be surprised if china might resort to the same trick when the country is ready to make a move on Taiwan and or the South China Sea.
World Opinion on Nukes
There is not much being said about the attitude of countries around the world that are not directly linked to the West concerning the possible use of nukes in this war. The best guess is that the use of nukes in Ukraine is generally viewed negatively around the world, and this includes most of those countries that still have friendly relationships with the russian federation.
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons basically reflects this view; in that a majority of the world’s states agree that the threat or use of nuclear arms is illegal. The only exceptions might be two countries that have deeply evil regimes, iran and north korea. Although they are big supporters of russia, they don’t play in the same league as China, as far as their influence over Russia is concerned. So, their silence or vocal support about russia’s threats of using nukes can be seen as being too unimportant to have any influence in moscow’s decision-making process, despite both eagerly supporting the fascist state with the means to help destroy Ukraine.
In this respect, it’s perhaps legitimate to make the assumption that the opinions of the rest of the world about using nuclear weapons in Ukraine won’t influence the mafia regime’s rationale as much as china’s, or perhaps the many negative consequences they can expect from the West.
Tactical Nukes and Military Ramifications
Using nukes in a war is fraught with risks and dangers. Every general knows them. Having said that, there are several possible scenarios for employing nukes in this war. And, as with everything else in life, every scenario has its own advantages and disadvantages. But, they all share one thing in common; nuclear fallout. The only exception is an atmospheric nuclear detonation to knock out the enemy’s electronic systems with EMP. But, this will also affect those of your own armed forces if they are close enough to the detonation.
On land, one option is the use of a tactical nuclear weapon on the battlefield itself, choosing carefully where it would bring the best results. The environmental effects of any nuclear weapons use are difficult to calculate and would depend on warhead yield, detonation height, weather, and local geography. Russia would be cautious not to detonate weapons too close to its own troops, occupied territory, or border. But, although Ukraine is a large country by European standards, winds could still easily carry fallout into Russian-held territory or even into Russia itself. It’s also likely that fallout could be blown over into NATO countries. Both cases would bring dire negative consequences that are difficult to assess.
Another alternative is to destroy a Ukrainian city to bring sheer terror to the entire country and provoke a quick surrender. This is the most unlikely scenario to happen simply due to the global outrage that this would bring with it. This also might prompt china to cap all relations with russia. Add to this the negative impacts of fallout spreading to russia and/or NATO countries, as described above, thus further compounding the troubles for the aggressor. It’s even conceivable to see the russian people finally reaching the breaking point with their regime, being aghast at such a terrible deed. The gamble of striking a city with a nuclear bomb could end in the regime losing most if not all support in the population.
Another option is to use a nuke to destroy the country’s leadership. This would require a strike in the country’s largest and most populous city, Kyiv. But, this would bring all the negative consequences with it that the other cases above have already illustrated. In addition, it would make a victory parade in Kyiv impossible.
In any case, setting aside global outrage, radiation contamination is the most obvious aspect that can cancel some of the advantages that tactical nukes could provide. It is one thing to nuke a city on a far-away island (Hiroshima, Nagasaki) and go there weeks afterward as occupier, and quite another to do so in an area you wish to occupy as soon as possible.
Without proper training and proper gear, sending troops into a contaminated region is not the smartest thing to do. Of course, we fondly remember the russian idiots who dug into the highly contaminated ground in Chernobyl’s Red Forrest, but can this stupidity be expected to be willingly repeated? Sending troops into a recently nuked region is quite another matter compared to sending troops into an area that is highly contaminated with deadly radiation from an incident most russian troops don’t even remember. Recognizing a region that was nuked is obvious to even the drunkest and dumbest backwater ruskie soldier. You might even provoke a troop uprising, mass desertions, flat out refusals to advance, or all of the above.
The Russian army could simply circumvent the affected region, but this posses many problems in itself. There would be only two possible routes to take, and the Ukrainian general staff would know what is to be done in this case. And, if the fallout moves across your army’s positions because the weather forecast was wrong, you’ll have an army in that region that will fall ill and die, and every piece of equipment in the affected area will be contaminated.
So, no matter how you look at it, using nukes has limited military value. The risks and – excuse the pun – the fallout far outweigh the advantages.
The Ruskie Elite
This brings us to an aspect that concerns the Russian elite, those higher-ups in the production and mining industries, financial institutions, the military, the security organs, and even the so-called church.
Even people who rely on seeing eye dogs recognize the truth that the russian federation is one of the most corrupt countries on this planet. This is a fact and is underlined by Transparency International and other corruption watchers. Just for info, Russia has a corruption score of 26, down from last year, and is in the 141st place in the world. Ukraine’s score is 36 – an improvement since the previous year – and is in 104th place. Russia thus has the lowest ranking in all of Europe, lower than many African, and Central/South American countries.
The political power system and structure of authority now in place in Russia resembles more that of an organized crime syndicate than of a regular government or even a common dictatorship. This is an important characteristic to remember when thoughts emerge about any possible use of nukes being used by this crime syndicate. Why?
First, when looking across the information landscape, it becomes clear that russia’s elite is one aspect that is never included in any calculations regarding the possible use of nuclear weapons by this regime. But, they are an important variable.
Let’s examine the mechanizations in the upper caste of the crime syndicate. The elite have enriched themselves in the past few decades and more than a few have do so immensely. This includes all those in the country’s echelons of power, from top to the very bottom. They all are stealing money and assets.
Why is Putin allowing this institutional corruption? It’s for their loyalty. Never mind for a moment that Putin himself is the biggest thief in the country. This is irrelevant for now. He allows others to thieve in industrial scale to buy their loyalty, which is paid for with the country’s wealth. For this “service”, the thief must be loyal to the don of the country, vladimir putin. This type of corruption is the glue that bonds putinism … the mortar that holds the bricks together.
But, what does all of this have to do with nukes?
Those individuals in the Russian federation that have grown wealthy and powerful under this system have learned the virtues of being wealthy. They enjoy their lives, very much so. They love their mansions, they enjoy their expensive cars, they appreciate the convenience of flying a private jet or helicopter, they take pleasure in cruising on their yachts, they value the possibility of sending their children to expensive Western universities, and they relish worshiping the sun as they lounge by their Olympic-size swimming pools. And so on and so forth.
These people are not really stupid. They know about all the negative consequences of using even “only” small tactical nukes. They know that it’s never a good idea to open certain Pandora’s Boxes and the atom bomb is perhaps the biggest one of all. Any use of a nuclear weapon has the potential to create very big problems … problems that are best prevented by not using nukes in the first place.
A very important point to ponder in all of this is that a nuclear holocaust would mean the end of their sweet lives. I don’t necessarily mean death. I’m sure that at least most of them have safe havens to go to, just in case; a nice bunker complex with all the bells and whistles. Especially the top dogs in the regime and the generals and admirals will have something like this standing by. Surviving should pose no big problems for the top elite.
But, does anyone really think that one of them is willing to surrender their lives of luxury for a life in a bunker? Give up the mansions, expensive cars, yachts, private aircraft, luxury travels to the French Riviera, or anything else they enjoy just to be damned living in a dank and dark bunker for an X amount of months or even years? And given the possibility that one day they can safely emerge from their bunkers and venture outside again, what would there be left over?
Given the possibility that Putin were insane enough to start a nuclear war, even only a limited one, are these people willing to take this risk and potentially sacrifice and destroy everything they’ve achieved just to satisfy the desire of a little man’s sick dreams? Do they know that Russia can survive a defeat in Ukraine or even the downfall of their boss, but not a nuclear holocaust? Of course, they do.
Of course, they are very well aware of the negative consequences of a nuclear war and even they would rather opt to prevent it, even if it means to be defeated in Ukraine, which doesn’t automatically mean the end of Russia. A nuclear holocaust does. A nuclear holocaust means living in a contaminated, dystopian world where there is no future for you or your children. It’s game over for everyone, even if you have billions stashed somewhere.
Nobody wants to use nukes and I can imagine that those in the Russian military who are in charge of the country’s nuclear arsenal also don’t want to be confronted with the risks and consequences. Thus, they would flat out refuse the order to use a nuke on Ukraine and in particular on NATO.
Conclusion
In the past ten years, I’ve learned that the little despot the kremlin and his little minions enjoy rattling the nuclear sabers simply because it’s so effective. It never fails to scare people in the West. We see it all the time how it works. To be frank, why shouldn’t they use the nuclear sabers when they see what results they can achieve?
Unless our collective governments will finally gather some courage, I think we’ll see more of it in the future, and we’ll also see other countries rattling theirs, simply because we allow it. We have allowed ourselves to be imprisoned by our own fears. I think that enough is enough. If nuclear blackmail works once, it’ll work again and again. Either we move forward, involving a slight risk, or we allow ourselves to be slaves for the bad guys around the globe – those with nukes or those who will soon have them.
So, do I believe that nukes will ever be used in Ukraine, even only in a limited way, or on NATO territory? Of course, whatever I might say or think is only an opinion, my opinion. But, this opinion is based on careful, lengthy observation of the Russian federation and by reading countless reports and articles concerning this this topic. So, my honest opinion is, no, I truly don’t believe that nukes will be used.
What is your opinion, dear reader?
China’s opposition for russia using nuclear weapons
https://www.newsweek.com/china-responds-putin-nuclear-weapons-warning-1879113
https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/11/what-russian-nuclear-escalation-would-mean-china-and-india
General reports on nuclear threats
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-04/features/inadmissibility-nuclear-threats
https://features.csis.org/deter-and-divide-russia-nuclear-rhetoric
Effects of nuclear weapons on the battlefield
https://www.icanw.org/catastrophic_harm#:~:text=Short%2Dterm%20effects,An%20error%20occurred.
https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/devastating-effects-of-nuclear-weapons-war
https://www.cfr.org/article/if-russia-goes-nuclear-three-scenarios-ukraine-war
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK219184
Rusia’s Corruption
https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/684844
https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/joni/vol4/iss1/6
https://www.transparency.org/en/campaigns/countering-russia-kleptocrats-after-ukraine
https://academic.oup.com/book/4650/chapter-abstract/146814806?redirectedFrom=fulltext
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/putins-purge-of-his-top-generals
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26396016
China, Russia and nukes:
https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/11/what-russian-nuclear-escalation-would-mean-china-and-india
https://www.newsweek.com/china-issues-warning-nuclear-war-risks-1875130
https://www.ft.com/content/c5ce76df-9b1b-4dfc-a619-07da1d40cbd3
Misc.
Of course, I never raised the question about the reliability of the russian federation’s nuclear arsenal. Do their rockets still work? They are getting quite old. And, do their nukes still work?
Each different weapon type in a nuclear stockpile requires routine maintenance, periodic repair, replacement of limited life components, surveillance (a thorough examination of a weapon), and other support activities as necessary, in order to ensure continued functionality.
Thank you for the hard work and thoughtfulness that went into your essay Frankie Facts!
Ukraine can’t afford to factor in “the nuke question” into its operational plans. If it did, it would be paralyzed.
Ukraine just has to continue its epic defence and hope to God that somehow a U.S. president comes along who has a Reagan-like character.
The putinaZis would fear Roger Wicker because of his declared nuclear first strike policy, but he seems to be a one-off.
Thanks a lot, Scradge.
I agree; Ukraine can’t take nuclear threats into their calculations. If they did, they might as well stop fighting. This would be their end, either way.
The West must learn this too. Either we will let nuclear threats keep us hotages forever, or we find the courage to break free.
The rodent nazi derives all his power from his nukes; or rather the threat of using them. He first threatened them when he invaded Crimea. Guess what? It worked and he and his minions, including his deranged butt-boy Medvedev, have been at it ever since.
Any action that putler takes will be determined by his cost benefits analysis; nothing else. Since he is a textbook psychopath, deaths are of no concern to him whether they are in the millions or hundreds of millions.
The foul piece of nazi scum just wants to stay in power; likely until he can insert one of his fugly sprogs into the dictatorship. That is one of the reasons he might refrain from nukes.
Only a crushing defeat in Ukraine will force a change of direction for his poisonous nazi regime.
Yes, after they saw how well those threats worked to make the Western snails retreat into their little snail houses, they were encouraged to use the nuke sabers again … and again, and again, and again, ad nauseam.