06/21/2025
Real changes in the Kremlin’s policy towards Ukraine, real prospects for peace will arise only when Russian dictator Vladimir Putin loses his sense of complete impunity. A serious foreign policy or domestic shock is needed to radically change the situation. Such an event could be, for example, the fall of the Iranian ayatollah regime. If the collapse of a theocratic dictatorship, which was recently considered stable, occurs, it will become a precedent and a symbol for other authoritarian leaders, including Putin.
When the same tough signals are sent to Moscow as are being sent to Tehran – for example, US President Donald Trump’s statements that the US knows the whereabouts of Ayatollah Khamenei at any moment – this could change the Kremlin’s behavior. For now, the Kremlin dictator continues to insist on Ukraine’s surrender – the only way to consider the numerous demands made by Moscow in negotiations with Ukraine.
This opinion was expressed by Russian oppositionist Olga Kurnosova in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Serhiy Kyslytsia stated that the Istanbul format of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is de facto incapable of ensuring progress in ending the war. Only the issue of prisoner exchange can be resolved in this format. In his opinion, given that only the first person makes decisions in Russia, the situation can only be changed by a meeting between Putin and Zelensky. At the same time, we see Peskov’s statements that the Kremlin is considering the possibility of a meeting between Putin, Zelensky and Trump , but it will require very long preparation. And, finally, Putin himself states that the war must be ended as soon as possible, but at the same time, the facts indicate that he is preparing for a protracted war. Do you agree that the Istanbul format has outlived its usefulness? What other format is possible, besides negotiations at the level of the presidents of Ukraine and the Russian Federation?
– First of all, resolving humanitarian issues is also important. If the Istanbul format is needed only to return all prisoners, all those held in Russia to their homeland, that is already a good thing. Yes, I can also say that, unfortunately, the Istanbul format cannot even produce a truce, let alone a long-term agreement. However, we see that Ukrainians are returning home, and this is also a very important result.
As for the war, I have said, I say and I will continue to say that as long as Putin is in power in Russia, there is no reason to count on long-term peace in any format – even a meeting with Trump, even a meeting without Trump, even any other meeting. The main guarantee of peace is the absence of Putin and his team at the helm in the Russian Federation.
Perhaps there are likely prospects for some kind of agreement when there is a tripartite format. But I personally wouldn’t count on it much. Moreover, Putin’s main goal is definitely not four regions of Ukraine plus Crimea, and not even all of Ukraine, which he still wants to have under control. Putin’s main goal is to gain greater control over at least all the republics of the former Soviet Union – it is no coincidence that so much attention is now being paid to Moldova – and in the long term, to control the countries of the former socialist bloc, the countries of Eastern Europe.
Yes, it may be a direct military presence, but we see the number of agents that are now being deployed in Europe, and we see that Putin’s Russia continues to destabilize the situation in Europe.
Therefore, as long as Putin remains in power, no one will be able to live peacefully – not only Ukraine, but also other European countries.
– The same Serhiy Kyslytsia stated that Putin is ready to negotiate only with the strong in this world. Obviously, this is the USA and, possibly, China. Do you suppose that if Trump really wanted to end this war, he could use some concrete argument or simply give Putin some “buns” so that he would abandon his imperialist goals for at least a few years?
– Trump is constantly offering “buns”, but he has not yet demonstrated strength. Let’s see how the situation in the Middle East develops. If, as a result of what is happening there, the Ayatollah’s regime falls, this will be an example of how to act with Putin.
– And what is Xi Jinping capable of ? Recently, we have been observing a very serious rapprochement between China and Putin’s Russia. Everyone saw Xi Jinping on Red Square in Moscow on May 9 with a Colorado ribbon. Xi’s rapprochement with the Lukashenko regime in Belarus is also noticeable. Do you suggest that under certain circumstances the head of China could play a certain role in the context of ending the war?
– Of course, he could. But so far he hasn’t squeezed all the juice out of Russia, so for now he has a favorable situation in which he can receive all sorts of preferences from Putin, and Russia is weakening more and more. When Xi Jinping gets everything he wants, he will be able to start putting more pressure on Putin. And he certainly has the opportunity to put such pressure on him, because without the supplies that Putin receives from China and North Korea – and North Korea will do nothing without China – it will be difficult for him to wage war.
– The situation for Trump at home is not easy. The protests in California have spread to other states. Do you think that if Trump, for one reason or another, ceases to be the president of the United States, will this play into Putin being more amenable to negotiations in this process?
– I don’t see that happening anytime soon. But even if something were to happen and Trump were to cease to be president of the United States, J.D. Vance would become president. And for now, his position is not much different from Trump’s.
– Putin stated that a meeting with President Zelensky is necessary at the final stage of the war to “put an end to it.” Does this mean that such an “end” is hinting at Ukraine’s surrender? Could some other format be meant here?
– No other format is envisaged. We see that all the proposals coming from Russia cannot be called anything other than the capitulation of Ukraine. All these demands for reducing the army and the like sound exactly like that. Putin is exactly seeking capitulation.
Yes, he wants to meet Zelensky as a winner – as the one who brought Zelensky to his knees. He sees no other format.
– Summing up, we can state that as long as Putin is at the helm in Russia, it is not worth waiting for the end of this war.
– At least while he is confident in himself – it is definitely not worth it. Something very serious has to happen. For example, he has to run out of money to fight this war. Or he has to see the Ayatollah regime fall and understand that such things are possible.
So far, it’s clear that he’s been climbing everywhere to pretend to be a peacemaker in Iran. But listen, you’re waging a war by attacking Ukraine, and you’re telling me what kind of peacemaker you are? Are you out of your mind?
When he sees that situations can be resolved completely differently… As Trump said, the States knows where Ayatollah Khamenei is at every moment. When the same words are said to Putin and when he understands that there are means that can destroy him at any moment, perhaps then he will be more accommodating.
Every intelligent person with foresight knows exactly that the mullahs must die. It would be good for the region and for the whole planet.
The very same thing can be said about putin, the fat one in north korea, and Xi. And, the orange taco in prison for the rest of his miserable life.
What a beautiful world this could be.
Nope. Putler needs to fall first. For more than a decade we were hoping whatever else could hurt him. The US is entitled to destroy illegal ruSSian military formations on Ukrainian territory, yet we only hear cheap excuses.