Svitlana Moronets

Dec 15, 2023

The analysis

I feel sorry for Volodymyr Zelensky. It’s devastating watching him travelling all around the world, struggling to convince even his closest ally, Washington, to keep helping Ukraine. But that is not his only problem. I bet Zelensky and his speechwriters are tossing and turning in bed at night, wondering what he should say when he addresses Ukrainians over Christmas and New Year. This time last year, he said 2023 would be ‘the year of victory’. Now there are fears that Ukraine could lose.

These are dark times for Ukraine. While the West drowns in ‘fatigue’ from a war it is not fighting, Russian forces have taken the initiative along the frontline. Avdiivka in the Donetsk region remains the scene of the most intense battles. During its attempts to encircle the city, the Russian military has suffered more than 13,000 casualties and lost more than 220 combat vehicles, according to US estimates. Russia has reportedly lost 315,000 troops since the start of the full-scale invasion – almost 90 per cent of the military personnel it had in February last year. These losses don’t bother Vladimir Putin; he feels that luck is finally on his side, so he is ready to endlessly sacrifice his soldiers. Sending men, wave after wave, into a meat grinder worked for him last winter when the Russians captured Bakhmut, so why not do it again?

This is not the only hot spot on the frontline. There are conflicting reports whether the town of Mariinka in the Donetsk region has fallen. Before the war, it was home to 10,000 residents. Now, nobody lives there: Russia has razed it to the ground. In the Kharkiv region, Moscow has been concentrating a large force near Kupyansk and is attempting to capture the nearby village of Synkivka, hoping to pave the way for the blockade of the city. In the Zaporizhzhia region, near the village of Robotyne, Russian military forces reportedly cover themselves with Ukrainian PoWs, using them as human shields as Russians fire at Ukrainian positions. For Ukraine, the focus has shifted from liberation of lands to the struggle of not losing the ones it has.

Winning the war against an adversary that so often disregards humanity and possesses seemingly unlimited resources seems less and less possible. In Ukraine, the impact of the non-stop fighting is already evident in the thinning nation. Some 70,000 soldiers have been reported dead. According to the UN, more than 10,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed, but the real number could be much much higher. Little progress on the battlefield this summer resulted in the mood slowly changing. Over the past six months, the share of Ukrainians who are ready to accept territorial concessions to end the war has increased from 10 per cent to 19 per cent. As of this month, 74 per cent of Ukrainians still stand against giving any concessions to Putin. They don’t want to give up because they know what will happen when Russia wins: more deaths and more war.

Still, many Ukrainian families will meet this Christmas for funerals. Thousands of soldiers will exchange greetings with their loved ones from cold and wet trenches, where they have been since February last year. I want to believe that this is just the darkest time before dawn, but Zelensky will have to find the right words to inspire more Ukrainians to get involved in the fighting – and convince his allies to provide the tools for that. It’s a heavy burden for one man to bear.

This newsletter will return on 5 January. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. I wish you peace.

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• A deal has been reached to open EU accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. European Council leader Charles Michel said the move was ‘a clear signal of hope for their people and for our continent’. 
• Joe Biden said that the US will continue to supply Ukraine with critical weapons and equipment ‘as long as we can’ during Zelensky’s visit to Washington.
• President Biden also urged Congress to approve a £48bn aid funding request before Christmas, saying that failure to do so would jeopardise Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
• Ukrainian activists held demonstrationsoutside the Kyiv City Administration, asking for a higher budget for military needs instead of repairs and infrastructure projects in the city.
• A massive cyberattack on Kyivstar, Ukraine’s leading phone operator, has caused issues with air raid alerts in several regions. Monobank, one of Ukraine’s largest banks, also reported a hack on Tuesday.
• A Russian missile strike on Kyiv injured 53 people on Wednesday. All of the missiles were shot down by Ukraine’s air defence system, but debris damaged buildings.
• The UK has announced a naval coalition with Norway to train and equip the Ukrainian Navy.
• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country would be a strong backer of Ukraine and will ‘demand full mobilisation’ of the West to help it in the war.
• The EU will suggest a proposal to seize about £13bn generated by frozen Russian assets and transfer them to Ukraine.

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Wider reading on the war

Why isn’t Biden being straight with Zelensky? – Daniel DePetris (The Spectator)

Zelensky in Lilliput: someone shrunk Ukraine’s war coalition – Matthew Kaminski (Politico)

US and Ukraine search for a new strategy after failed counter-offensive – Julian E. Barnes (New York Times)

Troubled by a resurgent Russia and bickering allies, Ukraine hunkers down – Daniel Michaels, Alistair MacDonald (Wall Street Journal)

Putin brings back cruelties from ancient empires to fight Ukraine – Melik Kaylan (Forbes)

In pictures

Buenos Aires, Argentina: Zelensky confronts Viktor Orban at the inauguration of Argentina’s new President. After the event, Zelensky said he had asked Orban to give at least one reason why he is blocking Ukraine’s EU membership – and added that he is still waiting for the answer. (Photo: Zelensky’s office)

Quote of the week

‘In May, every citizen in our country wanted the war to end quickly. There were hopes, but they didn’t come true.’

– Oleksii Danilov, Ukraine’s national security and defence council secretary on the counter-offensive.

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The war in numbers

Russian soldiers in Ukraine

617,000

Almost twice the 360,000 at the start of the full-scale war

EU unfreezes funds for Hungary

€10.2bn

Hungary has been vetoing EU aid packages for Ukraine

Total US aid to Ukraine

$75bn

Joe Biden says Putin is ‘banking’ on the US to stop aid

A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk