Hans Petter Midttun

Nonresident fellow hos Centre of Defence Strategies

The Norwegian National Defence College  Centre of Defence Strategies

April 20, 2025

On 2 April, The Telegraph reported that White House officials admitted that Trump would not secure a ceasefire in Ukraine in the coming months. Sources said the administration was increasingly frustrated with the Kremlin’s stalling tactics.

On 18 April, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US is ready to abandon peace efforts if it sees that this is an unattainable goal. He said that the decision point was only days away.

Echoing the statement by Rubio, President Trump said Washington would “take a pass” on trying to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia if either side “makes it very difficult.”

Ukraine agreed to a full and unconditional ceasefire on 11 March. Putin rejected the joint 30-day full ceasefire proposal during a phone call with President Trump on March 18. The Kremlin has since continued to push Putin’s demands for a ceasefire: Demilitarisation. Denazification. Territorial claims. International recognition. Lifting of sanctions. Conditions that are tantamount to a Ukrainian capitulation.

Putin is planning for this war to continue. The question is: What will the US do when – not if – it decides to walk away from the peace negotiations?

The US has 3 options:

Option 1: Uphold the “Biden strategy”. Former President Biden did not set up Ukraine for victory. He aimed to avoid a Ukrainian defeat.

Option 2: Increase the military aid to Ukraine. In the report “America First, Russia and Ukraine,” Kellogg proposed a ceasefire and peace negotiations, facilitated through a mix of incentives and pressure. The Russian failure to negotiate would trigger increased US military support for Ukraine.

Option 3: Stop all Defence aid to Ukraine. The support has already been stopped twice before. It was first blocked from October 2023 to April 2024. Trump temporarily stopped all defence aid and intelligence sharing in March 2025.

Trump will likely choose the last option.

Firstly, Trump and the Republican Party strongly criticised Biden for his strategy. They will not revert to a strategy they deplored.

Secondly, Trump has not approved a single military aid package for Ukraine since taking office. Even if he were to reverse course and utilise the remaining drawdown authority, the amount available is insufficient to sustain US support for Ukraine over time. To do that, Congress would need to approve additional Ukraine funding. This is presently not on the table. As a result, the era of US military aid to Ukraine is approaching its end.

Thirdly, Trump officials are ‘fed up’ with Europe’s efforts to strengthen Ukraine, indicating that if Ukraine cannot be forced to accept Trump and Putin’s terms for “peace”, Trump prefers a Ukrainian defeat to a victory.

Why? Trump sees a reset of the US/Russian relationship as more important than the survival of Ukraine. Putin demands Ukraine as a precondition to accept a reset.

Political cartoon: Chappatte

Comment from :

Kjetil Sandermoen

Not only does Trump see US/Russian trade/relationship more important than the survival of Ukraine, but he sees it as more important than the US’s relationship to Europe and NATO as well. The reason? Either he is so illiterate that he believes Russia still is a kind of USSR superpower, not a failed, small and weak economy relative to its population size (Switzerland with less than 9 million residents, and without oil, gas or any other natural resources export more than Russia with 142 million residents), or it is something far more sinister going on. No matter what, Europe must step up to this situation.