Vitaly Kulik21:31, 16.09.24

2 min.181

The “President” of unrecognized Abkhazia, Aslan Bazhiya, announced the termination of the agreement on the deployment of Russian naval forces on its territory and proposed that Turkish President Recep Erdogan sign a cooperation agreement (as is known, the Russians planned to deploy the Black Sea Fleet, driven out of Ukrainian waters by the Ukrainians, in Ochamchire (Abkhazia). This decision was made by the head of Abkhazia shortly after the Russian Federation, according to local “officials”, suspended social payments to teachers, doctors, and employees of the security forces of the self-proclaimed republic due to failure to fulfill obligations.

However, the self-proclaimed republic should not expect political support from Turkey, nor competition for Abkhazia with the Russian Federation.

Yes, Russia allowed pluralism in Abkhazia. And this pluralism often came out onto the streets and became visible – as a confrontation between different groups in the struggle for power. However, all the same, the “golden share” – the controlling stake – was and is in Moscow, in the FSB. And therefore any opposition did not have any qualitative result.

The current demarche is most likely a sign of the crisis that has developed with the “whims” of those clans that are at the head of Abkhazia towards the Russian budget. In their opinion, they did not receive sufficient funding due to various reasons. That is why such a nervous statement. However, it will not have a continuation.

It is worth understanding that the Abkhazians have a powerful diaspora in Turkey – they name almost hundreds of thousands who left in the 19th century and have relatives in modern Abkhazia. In turn, the Turks are present in Abkhazia at the level of private business.

But if we talk about the orientation of the self-proclaimed republic towards Turkey, then, of course, there will be no recognition from Ankara. Just as there will be no assistance to any movements or political support.

Yes, Turkey created certain mechanisms of economic interaction for private investors and businesses here. However, the matter did not go further than facilitating business and does not intend to go further. Turkey will not compete with Russia for a presence in Abkhazia. Therefore, as they say in Russian, Abkhazia will be given a little time to “splutter”, and after that the situation will begin to level out. And the “president” of the self-proclaimed republic will either be pacified or removed, creating, for example, some kind of crisis situation.

Vitaly Kulik, Director of the Center for Research on Civil Society Problems

(C)UNIAN 2024