And Now for Something Slightly Different

I asked five experts but I’ll tell you my version too

LESIA DUBENKO

OCT 30, 2024

Russians preparing to kill. Olga Maltseva / AFP via Getty Images file

It’s not a good day at all.

After many months of suspicions and discussions, it became clear the outgoing U.S. administration led by Joe Biden has given up on Ukraine after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that Ukraine received only 10% from the allotted $60 billion package that we fought for with blood and sweat and that the White House has leaked the secret annexes of the so-called Victory Plan to the press and, most likely, the Kremlin too.

This is all happening at a time when the front in Eastern Ukraine is in tatters and the country is bleeding, with many men being sent to the meat grinder without sufficient weapons or training and the elections in the US coming up.

Regardless of who wins them, — Donald Trump whose “fast plan to end the war” is more or less known or Kamala Harris who’s part of the administration deliberately slow-walking weapons to Ukraine for it to ask for negotiations — it is clear that the West doesn’t want Ukraine’s victory.

So, if Ukraine’s victory is off the table, then what does a Russian victory look like? I decided to ask five experts to answer this question after I listened to Tablet’s podcast WHAT REALLY MATTERS Ukraine’s Future Under Kamala and Trump where Walter Russell Mead defined Russia’s victory the following way:

“Russia ends up with more territory than they had in February 2022, the West is not able to bring Ukraine into Nato or the EU. That would be a very clear-cut political and military victory for Russia.”

Walter Russell Mead knows a thing or two about Russia, NATO, and more.

Before I turn to their definitions, I’ll tell you mine:

Russian victory in Ukraine is actually simple: the fall of Kyiv, the city they’re profoundly obsessed for historical reasons that gives them the feeling of roots.

Russia’s whole purpose of this war was to capture Kyiv and thus the country. There’s no other goal and no other objective. Which is why anything that isn’t that is actually not a victory but a temporarily acceptable result.

Now, let’s see what others have to say on the subject.

Michael DiCianna, Research Fellow at the Center for Intermarium Studies at the Institute of World Politics

There’s no reason to doubt that Russia’s ultimate strategic goal is the destruction of the Ukrainian state. They may aim to achieve that by eventually pushing to Kyiv, reducing western Ukraine to a rump state that is isolated from NATO and the EU, with little to no Black Sea coastline. It might be annexation of parts or the whole country into the Russian Federation, or it might be installing a puppet government, making Ukraine another Belarus.

More immediate Russian goals are likely not to freeze the conflict, though I believe they’d accept a freeze. Moscow likely sees it slow, but relatively steady advances in eastern Ukraine at the moment as a justification to continue the war gain more strategic territory, and then when Russia feels the economic and demographic pressure of military losses, military expenditure, then Russia would consider allowing for a negotiated freeze like the previous Minsk agreements.

Subscribe to him here Michael’s Substack

Jason Jay Smart, American commentator and Kyiv Post writer

Jason Jay Smart, American commentator and Kyiv Post writer, who’s been banned from entering Russia due to his work

By the definition of the Kremlin it is:

1. Ukraine’s neutrality
2. Ukraine’s demilitarisation 
3. Overthrow of the democratically elected government

Jay in Kyiv, X commentator 

Russia’s victory is always the same: whatever they can get away with. So it’s up to Russia’s victims as to how much they take…always.

Jonathan Fink, Silicon Curtain’s Podcaster 

First answer: Victory is whatever he can ‘sell’ to his compliant population. But in his mind, i think victory now is to end up with a Ukrainian state that is not viable economically or politically. But of course this is part of a global war against democracy, not just Ukraine.

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Second answer: Victory for Putin is when the West is humiliated, and it is rendered so weak and divided as to not react to his aggression. He will not stop until the hegemony of the post WWII rules-based order smashed, and autocracy (corrupt, informal power relations) becomes the dominant culture in world affairs.

Watch my interview with Jonathan here. Subscribe to him here:Silicon Curtain Substack

Steven Moore, founder of the Ukrainian Freedom Project

Steven Moore, founder of the Ukrainian Freedom Project, traveled to Ukraine at the beginning of the full-scale to help and has stayed there

When Russians show up at my house.

P.S. It seems like Steven and I think alike the most. Watch my interview with him here.

Subscribe to him here Steven Moore

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What’s your definition of Russia’s victory in Ukraine? Drop a comment below to let me know.

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Comment from Glen Grant:

There will be no Russian victory so save your energy.

David Beran:

Biden’s admin is holding off on anything related to Ukraine in a desperate attempt not to udermine Harris. Had they sent everything that was promised, Trump would’ve used it against Harris – “she’s spending so much of your tax dollars when we are a zillion bucks in debt”, or something to that effect. And as we know, Harris is terrible in interviews and can’t get her message across, so any attempt to defend it would be a flop.
All we can hope for is that Biden releases everything the day after the results are in, and uses whatever power he might have left in the House and Congress to push through additional package before he’s out of the WH.
Generally speaking tho I think the Dems are much more likely to pull out if the polls say that’s what the public wants. Trump is transactional – if allies collectively say that they’d spend lods and loads on US military hardware provided the US continues to arm Ukraine, he might listen. I worry Harris is a bit dumber when it comes to international politics and diplomacy.

Christopher J. Wajnikonis:

I advise not to be defeatist yet. Ukraine has surprised us before. I know it would be extremely tough but Ukraine might still be able to defeat Putin in spite of our Western 1ΝC0ΜPΣΤΣΝCΣ, 1ΝSUFF1C1ΣΝC¥ & STUP1D1Τ¥.
If that happens, Ukraine would save the West from WW3 Putin would start later after he has been strenghtened by (forced) ‘negotiations’ or a fall of Ukraine. If that does not happen, Alaska might not be next, but it would likely follow.

Matt Lund:

The goal of Russia is force Ukraine to eventually surrender. The Russians figure if they send enough Russian, North Koreans, and Chinese, they will eventually win! Russia by the most part IS not taking prisoners! Most of the time, Russia murders the surrendering soldiers! This should be alarming and the world should send in soldiers!