Roman Sheremeta
Professor. Economist. Founder. Author. Writing about geopolitics, Ukraine, power, and how decisions shape the world.
NOV 4
It looks like Democrats will control both the House and the Senate. Here are some potential implications for Ukraine:
1. Ukraine will gain many new supporters in Congress.Many Democratic lawmakers will replace Trump’s MAGA minions. This could strengthen congressional support for Ukraine and create new opportunities for bipartisan cooperation.
2. Unfortunately, Ukraine will also lose some of its Republican friends. Not every Republican losing a seat is an opponent of Ukraine. Some have been among Ukraine’s strongest supporters, and their departure would be a genuine loss. Representatives Brian Fitzpatrick and Mike Lawler, as well as Senator Susan Collins, will most likely lose their seats. Other pro-Ukraine Republicans may also be leaving Congress.
3. Congress will be able to put much greater pressure on Trump. Democrats will control both chambers of Congress, including legislative agendas, budgets, and investigative committees. Trump will retain significant executive authority, but Congress will be able to challenge his decisions, investigate sanctions relief, and scrutinize restrictions on military assistance to Ukraine.
4. Ukraine could receive substantial new military assistance. Democrats could advance new funding packages for weapons, ammunition, and air defense. With bipartisan Republican support, Congress could pursue longer-term commitments that would make American assistance more predictable. Trump’s veto power and his allegiance to Putin would remain important obstacles.
5. Russia could face much stronger economic sanctions. Congress could pass legislation targeting Russian oil exports, financial institutions, and companies helping Russia circumvent sanctions. Unlike executive orders, statutory sanctions would be more difficult for Trump to reverse unilaterally.
6. Ukraine’s negotiating position could strengthen considerably. This is perhaps the most important strategic implication. Putin’s incentive to prolong the war partly depends on his expectation that American support for Ukraine will weaken. If Congress establishes credible long-term military assistance and sanctions, Moscow would have to reconsider the benefits of waiting.
The bottom line: Russian aggression against Ukraine will not immediately end. Trump’s influence over foreign policy will remain. But for Ukraine, the biggest opportunity would be to turn renewed congressional support into sustained military assistance and stronger economic pressure on Russia.
https://romansheremeta.substack.com/p/what-do-the-us-election-results-mean
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The Kremlin’s Congresswoman Squeaks By
Anna Paulina Luna won by less than a point in a district created for her. Trump won it by 13 points in 2024. Her problems are legion, but advocating for Putin was not a great electoral strategy.
Lifelong Republican operative. In Ukraine since day five of the war. Commentator on foreign policy, American politics, and Russia’s war in Ukraine, with 300+ media appearances. Founder of the Ukraine Freedom Project.
NOV 4
U.S. Representative Anna Paulina Luna spent much of the last days of her campaign cozying up to Russia and Putin. She almost lost her job because of it.
Rep. Luna invited a delegation of Russian lawmakers to DC. Also pictured is Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee, Arizona Republican Eli Crane, and Texas Democrat Vicente Gonzalez Jr. Wisconsin Republican Derek Van Orden was reportedly at the event, but he is not pictured. He must have been taking the photo.
The Associated Press has not called Rep. Luna’s race, but having seen quite a few election nights, she is .81% ahead with 99% of the vote counted. The best we can hope for is that she wins with .5% of the vote, which would trigger an automatic recount under Florida law.
Just a few of Luna’s pro-Russia campaign efforts:
Sept. 10: Confirmed to Russian media that plans for a congressional delegation to visit Moscow remained in place, explaining that the election campaign was the immediate priority.
Sept. 11: Described Russian Ambassador Alexander Darchiev as a very good friend and said she regularly met him for lunch.
Sept. 13: Advocated restoring cultural exchanges between Russia and the United States, emphasizing similarities between the two countries.
October 9-10: Praised the Russia diesel agreement.
October 11: Criticized continued ammunition supplies to Ukraine
October 13: Claimed Russia had accepted peace terms and Ukraine was obstructing progress
October 21: Attacked members of Congress criticizing negotiations with Russia
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee attacked her as well, saying: “If being a Russian sycophant is Luna’s true calling, Florida voters will be more than happy to show her to an early retirement so that she’s not claiming to speak on their behalf.”
And “Anna Paulina Luna needs to decide if she wants to represent Florida or the Kremlin.”
Just 966 votes going the other way would trigger a recount.
The really painful part of Luna’s victory is that Ukraine is losing or in danger of losing several champions.
- Rep. Mike Turner (OH-10) is currently losing by about 2% his Democrat opponent with 97% of the votes counted. I was in his office last week discussing how we can help Ukraine’s F-16 program. His staff was all in.
- Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-1) is chair of the Ukraine Caucus. He is down by 7 points with 73% of the vote counted. He would need 60% of the remaining votes to win.
- Ukraine Caucus member Rep. Jen Kiggans (VA-2) and Mike Lawler (NY-17) have lost.
- Rep. Jeff Hurd (CO-3) is a freshman, and is always on board for Ukraine. He did a lot of good stuff for a freshman. He is down by about 3400 votes, but there are still a lot of votes to count in his district.
- Joe Wilson (SC-2) is at 49.9% with 94.8% of the vote counted. Wilson is chair of the Helsinki Commission, which is basically a quasi-Congressional Committee formed during the Cold War to screw the Soviets, and still making good work of it with the Russians. It looks like he will hang on, but if he loses, it will be a blow.
- Helsinki Commission member Greg Murphy (NC-3) is also in a tight race.
- Helsinki Commission member Richard Hudson (NC-9) lost by two points. Hudson is a good friend and a good human being. We were chiefs of staff together in the House many years ago.
- In a horrible irony, Democrat Ukraine champion Marcy Kaptur is trailing in her Ohio district by about 18 points to Republican Derek Merrin. Hers is one of the few Dem seats that might flip. I was also in her office last week. She is always ready to help. However, she won her race against the same opponent last year with 2400 votes, and it took the AP two weeks to call the election.
My concern about a Democrat Congress and a Trump White House is that absolutely nothing will get done. If the Republicans held the Senate, it might have been more helpful to Ukraine and foreign policy in general.
Trump and everyone around him will be investigated. And certainly Trump has given the Democrats a lot to work with. But Trump or Vance will be President until January 20, 2029 barring events that have never been seen in the history of our country. I view everything through the lens of “How will this get more weapons or a better peace deal for Ukraine?” and “How will this make Americans more aware of the global war we are in, and take action on it?”
Investigations, regardless of how warranted they are, will not get weapons to Ukraine. They are also unlikely to make Americans stop scrolling TikTok and notice that Iran, China, Russia and North Korea, along with all the Islamic extremist groups, are collaborating for our demise.
It is up to all of us in the pro-Ukraine community to keep Ukraine at the top of the Democrats’ Congressional agenda.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-223419915
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Shaun Pinner :
Just amazing America 🇺🇸🙏
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Quotes of the day :
Illia Ponomarenko :
Well, imagine that.
The killing of 31 people in the Russian bombing of Komyshuvakha, along with the countless other mass killings Russia has carried out in Ukraine, now occurring almost daily, somehow didn’t outrage Ms. Weidel or inspire her to demand a federal investigation.
Like, at all.
Meanwhile, Putin is once again preparing to send the very same Vladimir Medinsky to yet another round of pointless and meaningless “negotiations” with Ukraine.
Medinsky, a notorious conspiracy theorist and pseudo-historical freak, a nobody in Russia, who, during previous equally pointless charades masquerading as “negotiations,” was already delivering lectures about how Russia was prepared to fight forever because Tsar Peter the Great fought Sweden for 21 years in the 18th century.
I wonder, don’t Donald Trump and his entourage find this ridiculous themselves by now? Aren’t they tired of Putin making complete idiots and laughingstocks of them, over and over again, with such undisguised delight?
Again and again, year after year, in this absurd never-ending Groundhog Day.
Or is the illusion of frantic activity, the endless shows, the complete substitution of wishful thinking for reality, and all the empty hot air without the slightest hint of actual results really all that matters to them?
Garry Kasparov :
Crime without accountability is practice. Justice is not vengeance. When the Soviet Union collapsed, we let euphoria blind us to the need for the hard work of investigation and responsibility. Do not forgive, do not forget, and clean house.
Phillips P. OBrien :
The greatest and most destructive lie being endlessly repeated in the press is that Trump just wants “peace” between Russia and Ukraine. The opposite is the truth. He wants a Russian victory and the destruction of Ukraine.
If Trump wanted “peace” he could easily aid Ukraine and sanction Russia. He wants war, and a horrible one at that.
Joni Askola :
AfD should be banned. As Moscow’s fifth column and a fascist party, it’s an existential threat to Europe’s security
Roman Sheremeta :
Russians struck a hospital in Kharkiv, injuring at least 73 people. Among the injured are patients, healthcare workers, and residents of nearby buildings.
This attack was enabled by Trump and his supporters. Trump lifted sanctions on russia and resumed purchases of russian diesel, providing russia with additional revenue as it continues its genocidal war against the Ukrainian people.
Georgi Revishvili :
President Zelenskyy on Putin:
We are not inviting Putin to Kyiv. They came to us without an invitation in 2022. But that’s not why there’s no point in inviting Putin to Kyiv. It’s because he won’t come. The same goes for inviting me to Moscow. What Russia is doing is destructive. It’s simply spitting in the face of the whole world that wants this war to end. That’s why no one will support going to Moscow.
As for a phone call, Russia will use it as an excuse to avoid any further meetings. And we understand this game. It leads nowhere. It would just be a very formal, dry phone conversation where I would once again have to listen to a history lecture from the leader of the Russian Federation, rather than hear about real steps to actually end the war.
If we want to end the war, we have to meet and take the first step: a ceasefire.
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Andrea Tuthill :
Ken Harbaugh and Dean Blundell predict help is on the way when the new Congress is seated. Russia is not fighting a war. They are simply committing war crime after war crime, a campaign of terror.
Almost half of Florida District 13 voted for genocide.
39% of Ohio voted for genocide.
Humiliated Putin’s Crisis Explodes in His Face :
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/humiliated-putin-crisis-explodes-face-192106379.html
This seems more than somewhat unlikely, but would be good if it happens:
Law professor claims Trump may leave US for Russia after leaving office
Donald Trump could be planning a getaway to a country like Russia if he loses power, according to one expert
https://www.the-express.com/news/world-news/219041/trump-russia-escape-election-friendly-dictatorship?int_source=amp_continue_reading&int_medium=amp&int_campaign=continue_reading_button#amp-readmore-target
Roman Sheremeta :
She will not be missed!
The MAGA Congresswoman Victoria Spartz of Indiana lost her seat in Congress. Despite her Ukrainian roots, Spartz was a loud anti-Ukrainian voice in Congress.
Every country has people that bring shame to its nation. For Ukraine, Spartz was that shame.
I am really happy she is gone. She will not be missed. History will not be kind to her.