January 16, 2023
Center for European Policy Analysis
Lessons learned from the wartime performance of Western weaponry in Ukraine is invaluable.
When Ukrainian Patriot missile air defenses repeatedly shoot down the Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, a missile the Kremlin describes with Wunderwaffe– (wonder-weapon) like terminology, it is not just saving its military and civilians from the damage the enemy seeks to cause.
It is also doing the hard work for the US and the rest of NATO, their defense industries, and other friendly nations. It provides the ultimate test range.
That’s because Patriots — Ukraine’s only defense against ballistic missiles — and multiple other weapons systems are being trialed against a near-peer rival in real time. For all the improvements in computer modeling, the real battlefield remains unmatchable.
Think of it like baseball, or cricket. Training an air defense system is like throwing balls again and again. Over time, the algorithm learns what the pitcher/bowler can do and works out the best response for the batter. The more balls/missiles are thrown at you, the better you know how to respond. Ukraine has provided knowledge we didn’t have.
All modern Western weapon systems either collect data by default or can be made to. This allows near-realtime improvements and increases the success rate.
For the Patriot, multiple calculations are made to intercept an incoming Kh-47M2 Kinzhal. It’s a tough task. The long-range missile may reach Mach 10 during its flight and is designed to weave an unpredictable course (by comparison, a regular assault rifle bullet leaves the barrel at about Mach 3 but slows down after a few hundred meters.)
The good news is that while the Kremlin likes to call it hypersonic, it has to slow considerably near its target. The Patriot’s job is to calculate when and where its air defense missile should intercept the threat.
Even so, the margins for error are incredibly slim at these velocities, and there is no second chance (The New York Times has a good account here.) Achieving this requires perfection at many levels; that’s why quite a lot of Kinzhals still get through. In addition, Ukraine has only two [three–OFP] Patriot systems, which means it cannot provide anything like nationwide coverage.
When the Ukrainians do successfully intercept a Russian missile, the data is fed back into the Patriot missiles intercept algorithm, teaching the air defense system to become better and better over time.
Likewise, data on downing modern Russian aircraft; the Patriot system destroyed three advanced SU-34s on December 23, and was again believed to be responsible for the destruction of a Russian command and control aircraft in Southern Ukraine on January 14.
Why is the data so beneficial for NATO and its defense industries? Data quality is high because it is live-tested; it is not a desk job or theoretical calculation. As an added value, other adversaries have copied or bought Russian designs, so data from Ukraine would improve the air defense against Chinese, Iranian, and other rogue state missiles and airplanes.
Unfortunately, this article only slightly touches the many benefits that we have by sending our weapons and munitions to Ukraine. Although the topic herein covers only the algorithms for the Patriot system, we have gained valuable knowledge in other systems, too. One example are the Javelins, then the HIMARS, the short-range ATACMS, the Excalibur shells, the Bradleys, and more. Not only that, but the successes of our military hardware has facilitated additional orders in the international arms market, greatly benefiting men and women who work in our defense industry.
I wonder about this last point a lot, having not seen any large-scale pushback against the maga morons in Congress from the arms industry or the areas they employ people and pay taxes in. This aspect illuminates the fact that they instead are doing a lot to destroy our capacities, politically, militarily, and economically.
Of course, gaining valuable insights about our weapons and munitions benefits the country’s overall defense capabilities too, and should be another good reason as an argument against the behavior of Make American a Vassal of Trash Countries faction in our government.