(CNN)Intercepted communications obtained by the US have revealed that some Russian officials have worried that a large-scale invasion of Ukraine would be costlier and more difficult than Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin leaders realize, according to four people familiar with the intelligence.
Three of the sources said those officials include intelligence and military operatives.
The officials have also grumbled about their plans being discovered and exposed publicly by western nations, two of the sources said, citing the intercepted communications.
There is no evidence that these officials are opposed to the overall plan, or would revolt against Putin’s orders, two of the sources said. Another source familiar with the US intelligence noted that Russia has a professional military that would be expected to effectively carry out Putin’s orders.
Still, Russian defense personnel believe it will be difficult, a senior European official said. “In the assessments we see it is clear some people on the [Russian] defense side are not really understanding what the game plan is,” the official said. The official added that the assessments suggest the defense personnel think “it’s a very difficult game plan to stand up.”
Another of the sources familiar with the intelligence said that the way the Russian planning has evolved and expanded over the last two months suggests that the concerns have been heard by senior Russian officials.
Officials told CNN on Saturday that Putin has now assembled 70% of the military personnel and weapons on Ukraine’s borders that he would need for a full-scale invasion of the country. Some assessments indicate that he may be planning to try to take Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, they said, and the city could fall within 48 hours of a large-scale land and air invasion.
Another possibility, the officials said, is that Putin decides upon a multi-pronged operation, sending in forces from several directions across Ukraine to quickly fracture the Ukrainian military’s ability to fight as a cohesive force — a classic Russian military strategy.
“We’ve long said that Putin continues to add to his options and capabilities, and we’ve been equally transparent about some of the moves we believe he intends to make to justify some sort of military action,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told CNN Monday. “We’re also going to continue to help Ukraine better defend itself with both lethal and non-lethal assistance.”
US officials publicly and privately say they still don’t know whether Putin has decided to attack, and what form it would take if he did. That is largely because the US’ visibility into Putin and his inner circle is still extremely limited, the sources told CNN.
The US has fairly solid insights into the Russian military and foreign ministry, the sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN. Many of those personnel have been involved in the current buildup near Ukraine, which has afforded the US better-than-usual visibility into Russian planning. But the US intelligence community is still largely cut off from Putin and the most senior Russian officials, who are themselves typically isolated from the lower-level operatives carrying out Kremlin orders.
Even so, many of the preparations have been overt and easier to spot. Russia has continued to build up its forces near Ukraine’s borders, including more advanced deployments in Belarus and Crimea, according to satellite images taken by Maxar Technologies and provided to CNN. New housing and personnel camps have sprung up in the last two weeks, the images show. And the US has seen indications that Russia had begun erecting supply lines such as medical units and fuel that could sustain a drawn-out conflict should Moscow choose to invade, officials have previously told CNN.
“Given the type of forces that are arrayed … if that was unleashed on Ukraine, it would be significant, very significant, and it would result in a significant amount of casualties,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley told reporters last week. “You can imagine what that might look like in dense urban areas, along roads, and so on and so forth. It would be horrific. It would be terrible. And it’s not necessary. And we think a diplomatic outcome is the way to go here.”
Another US official assessed that the diplomatic path is narrower than ever, however. “We are in Hail Mary territory,” he said.
CNN’s Alex Marquart and Barbara Starr contributed to this report.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/07/politics/us-intel-russia-doubts-invasion-ukraine/index.html
“…and it would result in a significant amount of casualties,”
Russian casualties!
It is imperative to let the Ruskie bleed and this as much and as profusely as possible. The landscape should be colored in Ruskie blood-red, the roads plastered with Ruskie bodies, the rivers clogged with Ruskie corpses, the air have the stench of rotting Ruskie cadavers, the skies clouded with the smoke of burning Ruskie tanks and Ruskie aircraft. So be it!
I all for a significant surge in the amount of “cargo 200” in such a case.
They should not be in “Hail Mary territory.” They should be in “we will stop putler by any means necessary” territory.
I am struggling to find any US or UK politician or military figure who advocates sending any ground forces or even air support to Ukraine. Did anyone find someone?
Even Marco Rubio, one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters, wants to crush putler’s economy but rejects the use of US forces.
“Rubio says Putin’s ‘economy should be crippled and hurt badly’ if Russia invades Ukraine.” :-
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/593021-rubio-says-putins-economy-should-be-crippled-and-hurt-badly-if
Alas, after a number of ill-fated military adventures, Americans are reluctant to start yet another. Afghanistan was the biggest downpour that soured many in the US. Biden in the Oval Office doesn’t make things any better for this situation. His incompetence in this regard has reache world fame.
While that is understandable, a Russian invasion of Ukraine is exactly the sort of war western militaries have trained for since 1945. The major problems I see is the vegetable resident in the white house, and the social engineering idiocy that has been going on in the US and other western militaries over the last 35 years.
Putin could say what he really wants (Crimea legalized), but he keeps starting all kinds of shit letting us guess. Putin is not a great leader since his wishy washy shit leaves us with guessing and predicting. Is there any serious people left in Moscow?
I hope no one will get the hare-brained idea to let Putin keep Crimea legally. That would really open the Pandora’s Box for the entire region.
Let me disagree. As long as Putin does not get the Crimea legalized he will keep fucking Ukraine. Eight years passed and things are only getting worse. Putin and his successors can continue this shit for decades. Ukraine is on the fucking wrong track.
He won’t get it from Ukraine, the one country that can decide it. Besides that, Crimea is the dead weight that will help aid Putin’s demise. When Crimea breaks Sevastopol will return to Ukraine and there will be no more RuSSki flags flying in Ukraine.
They continue doing this because there is nobody in the West with enough brains and spine to put a stop to it.
Putin is just a muthafukka, he needs some victory, whatever it is. To think that militarily inferior Ukraine could leave him with nothing is insane. I love Ukraine and i know how Russia works. I can only hope you guys will finally understand how serious the situation is. The US is not shipping arms like hell to Ukraine because Putin is bluffing!
I think we all on here are aware of the seriousness of what’s going on, Mike.
Legalizing the ongoing invasion of Ukraine would an utterly foolish move. Crimea does not belong to Russia, and Putin knows it because his government signed the Budapest Agreement along with several others. His regime has already accepted Crimea as being part of Ukraine.
No Putin is not a serious government leader because he is part of the Russian mafia and is the very sort of man Peter the Great tried to stop and render extinct. Peter failed, and it frustrated him enormously.