Marta Gichko 19:10, 08.07.24 – UNIAN

In that case, there would be incentives to avoid a direct conflict between NATO and Russia that could lead to nuclear war.

The US and Europe would be safer with Ukraine in NATO than vice versa.

This is stated in the material of the analytical center Atlantic Council . The main topic of the NATO summit in Washington will be Russia’s war in Ukraine and Ukraine’s future relations with the Alliance. Some believe that it is risky to talk about Ukraine’s imminent accession to NATO, but, on the contrary, with Ukraine in the Alliance, the free world will be much safer.

“Ukraine’s membership would be fundamental to long-term peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region, which would benefit both Ukraine and NATO,” the analysts note.

At the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, NATO members said Ukraine would join the alliance at some unspecified point in the future. At last year’s Vilnius summit, the allies reaffirmed their 2008 commitment, adding the tautological explanation that they “will extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance only when member states agree and the conditions are met.”

The alliance is expected to offer Ukraine a “bridge to membership” this year, consisting of a series of measures designed to strengthen Ukraine. These are expected to include a stronger role for NATO in coordinating military assistance and a promise of long-term support, as well as pledges by individual alliance members to invest in Ukraine’s defense industrial base and further develop bilateral security agreements. However, these steps still fall short of an invitation to join the alliance.

The hesitation to extend an invitation stems from concerns about what Ukraine’s membership would mean for the security of existing NATO allies, including the United States. Would an invitation be provocative to Russia and start a new cycle of escalation? What would it mean to extend NATO’s Article 5 security guarantee to a country already in conflict, and would it amount to NATO declaring war on Russia? Even if the current conflict were to freeze, creating space for Ukraine to join the alliance, Russia’s ruler Vladimir Putin is unlikely to give up his desire to reconquer Ukraine.

To answer these questions, the Atlantic Council, in partnership with the Estonian Foreign Ministry, hosted a series of major discussions this spring that brought together dozens of leading experts, including current U.S. officials and allies, to examine future Russia-Ukraine conflict scenarios and their implications for Western security. Some scenarios focused on Ukraine joining NATO now; others looked at the process of joining. Scenarios included scenarios in which Ukraine managed to retake all of its territory and others in which parts of the country remained occupied by Russia.

The results of the discussions are unambiguous. Experts predict that if Ukraine is invited to NATO, Russia will not escalate. Analysts note that with Ukraine in NATO, Europe is more stable and secure.

Even in scenarios that began with a visible and direct Russian military attack on Ukraine, the conflict quickly de-escalated. Both sides had strong incentives to avoid a direct conflict between NATO and Russia that could lead to nuclear war.

“This conclusion is consistent with Russia’s behavior over the past decade and a half. Putin has been willing to use force against countries outside NATO, including Georgia and Ukraine, but has refrained from attacking NATO countries. Moreover, some observers now suggest that the West alone has the primary incentive to avoid nuclear escalation in Ukraine. But with Ukraine in NATO, Putin will also have to worry about the possibility of a nuclear conflict, which will force him to be much more cautious in his dealings with Ukraine,” the analysts note.

This week, Western countries may offer Ukraine a bridge to NATO, but for the sake of a better future for the entire Alliance, the bridge must be short, steely, and end with a firm invitation for Ukraine to join NATO, analysts concluded.

NATO Summit in Washington – Latest News

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has told what Ukraine can expect from the NATO summit in the United States . According to him, he expects the heads of state and government to agree on a substantial aid package for Kyiv.

UNIAN also reported that Ukraine will not receive an invitation to NATO at the summit in Washington. As President Volodymyr Zelensky said, strengthening air defense with Patriot systems is of primary importance for Ukraine.

https://www.unian.net/world/ssha-i-evrope-budet-bezopasnee-s-ukrainoy-v-nato-atlantic-council-12690405.html