As long as Russian forces struggle to advance, Ukraine can reject Trump’s mineral extortion.
Feb 17, 2025
Tivaz artillery group capture
In a cataclysm of artillery and drone strikes, Ukrainian forces smashed an attack by Russian troops in and around the town of Ulakly on or just before Sunday. Surveillance drones working for the Ukrainian Tivaz artillery group registered around 10 destroyed and abandoned Russian vehicles.
The failed assault, one of several in the southeastern corner of Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine in recent days, may have signaled the failure of the Russian offensive in the area. The political implications are profound.
As recently as two weeks ago, the Russians had the momentum. They’d just ejected the Ukrainian Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group from Velyka Novosilka, a few miles south of Ulakly, and were poised to pursue the retreating Ukrainians and potentially achieve a breakthrough in the area where Donetsk Oblast meets Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Now a Russian breakthrough appears unlikely. “Exhausted by losses and intense battles over the past month, the enemy will not be able to quickly pursue Khortytsia OSG whose units are retreating from Velyka Novosilka,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies explained.
Not only have the Russians suffered heavy losses in their modest advance along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia corner, they’re also experiencing broader shortages of troops and equipment that have compelled them to prioritize their attacks.
Desperate to eradicate the Ukrainian-held salient in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast and equally eager to capture the fortress city of Pokrovsk, 18 miles north of Ulakly, the Russians are diverting resources from southern Donetsk. “The enemy will not be able to break through to Zaporizhzhia or Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, as they lack the necessary troops, funds and resources,” CDS assessed.
In conclusion, “the plan to collapse the southern Ukrainian front and advance toward Zaporizhzhia is unfeasible,” the analysis group asserted.
The exhaustion of the Russian offensive in southeastern Ukraine comes at a perilous time for the Kremlin. The administration of U.S. Pres. Donald Trump has threatened to abandon Ukraine unless the government in Kyiv consents to Trump’s $500-billion mineral extortion scheme. At the same time, Trump reportedly is considering pulling U.S. troops from NATO states bordering Russia.
Ukraine—and Europe in general—is grappling with the possibility that 80 years of strong U.S. support for European security may come to a bizarre and abrupt end. Given the chaos resulting from the American retreat, the regime of Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin should be in the strongest possible position to demand huge territorial concessions in exchange for ending its wider war on Ukraine.
But Russia isn’t actually winning on the battlefield in Ukraine. Where its forces make gains, the advance is usually measured in yards—and might cost entire infantry companies with scores of troops.
Yes, the Ukrainian military is struggling to mobilize sufficient forces. But the Russian military is struggling, too—and it’s the one that must advance hundreds of miles against a technologically advanced foe in order to achieve Moscow’s original objectives, including regime change in Kyiv, by force alone.
“The Russian military has objectively failed,” analyst Andrew Perpetua pointed out. “And they do not have the strength to ever recover from the degree to which they have failed. Russia cannot win this war on a battlefield.” But it can win at the negotiating table if, for some reason, Ukraine caves to American pressure to end the war on terms favorable to Russia.
Fortunately for Ukraine, Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky understands the political dynamics—and has so far refused to surrender. Publicly lavishing praise on Trump while also steadfastly refusing to sign the misspelled, exploitative minerals deal memo the White House forwarded to him, Zelensky “has handled negotiations very well so far,” according to Tatarigami, founder of the Ukrainian Frontelligence Insight analysis group.
Well-armed by its own industry, its European allies and the administration of former U.S. Pres. Joe Biden, “Ukraine has enough money to fund all of 2025 and part of 2026,” Perpetua concluded. “They have enough weapons and ammo to last most of 2025, and with aid from other nations (plus that money) they will be able to fight through 2025 without issue.”
So Zelensky can afford to politely say no to Trump while his troops continue to kill and maim hundreds of Russians every day. Zelensky can wait for peace terms that are actually good for Ukraine.
Ironically, that gives Zelensky leverage over Trump, inasmuch as Trump wants to be known as the man who brought peace to Ukraine. “The only way for Trump to achieve peace is through a fair agreement with guarantees for Ukraine,” Tatarigami explained.
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Sources
2. Center for Defense Strategies
3. Andrew Perpetua (and here)
4. Tatarigami
A good analysis this time. I’m not only saying this because of its positive content, but because that’s how I see things. The battlefield is where facts are created. The negotiating tables are for hot gas generators.
This doesn’t negate the evilness of the Trump administration. The thought that I would be deeply ashamed as an American never even crossed my mind. Now I know that democracy, freedom, and righteousness can be brought to their knees in our once great country just like in Venezuela, Somalia, north korea, or mafia land.
“The enemy will not be able to break through to Zaporizhzhia or Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, as they lack the necessary troops, funds and resources,” CDS assessed.”
This a very dangerous assumption to make. Putler has 150,000 new orcs entering combat, plus an unknown number of norks.
As long as the vile chicoms keep supporting and supplying them, backed by Iran, NK, India, Brazil and their EU clients Orbanistan, Ficostan and Austria, they can continue indefinitely.
We need to go after India big time, as well as SA and Brazil.
Worst of all, the despicable Trumpkov administration is a defacto ally, being as it is, crawling with putinoid scum.
“Publicly lavishing praise on Trump while also steadfastly refusing to sign the misspelled, exploitative minerals deal memo the White House forwarded to him”
I don’t know much about US law, but when I read that this extortion document was drafted by NY lawyers, and not the State Department, I started to smell something extremly rotten. I’m almost sure that any agreements between countries are not handled by private lawyers.
Zelensky did the right thing to wipe his ass with that piece of toilet paper.
I smell the aroma of Musk in all of this crap.
There were many protests today, during President’s Day. I think the orange gang has already pissed off many Americans. Great job, after one month on the job.
Was there many MAGA hats on parade, or where they wearing MRGA hats?
I wonder how many of those federal employees that got fired are Trump voters. ILMAO. Many more are shaking with fear.
I was reading about the clown show put on by this DOGA ot whatever it’s called. They fired loads of nuclears safety guys, then realised they fucked up. They tried to find them all, but the clowns had wiped all their details from the computers.
DOGE. Yes, we have a real circus show going on in Washington. Do you have popcorn and beer ready? This is only the beginning.
Nope, but I’ll get some ready. 😂
Do it. You’ll need it.
First casualty will be Musk. There isn’t enough room in the US for two egomaniacs.
I hope so.
The Tesla board wants the prick to step down. Sales are taking a dive.
I just heard another little deal. Trump is going to unblock russian bank cards so they can be used anywhere. I doubt that Europe will allow it, but at least US citizens can delight in the prospect of owning a russky mir card.
Trump has dug his way into putler’s anus deeper and faster than I thought he would.
Yep. His dreams of ending this war by Easter have as much as russia taking Pokrovsk in that time.