7 August, 2024
I decided to gather for you all the possible explanations voiced by various analysts as to why the Armed Forces of Ukraine are infiltrating the Kursk region.
No matter which version is correct, each justifies this operation.
1. Kursk NPP: An attempt to seize the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant and exchange it for the Zaporizhzhia NPP would be a powerful move. Returning the ZNPP to our network would solve our energy problems since it provided 30% of our electricity before the war. This is the best version for us, but success is unlikely.
2. Diversion of reserves from the Kharkiv region: The Kursk region is defended by the Russian “North” group, which also conducts operations in Vovchansk. Diverting their reserves would allow us to drive the Russians out of the Kharkiv region’s populated areas they captured. This is a good version with a decent chance of success.
3. Preemptive strike: The Armed Forces might have launched a preemptive strike to avoid a repeat of the situation in the Kharkiv region. I don’t really believe this version, but if true, it deserves applause.
4. Campaign aimed at the West, which has begun to despair of Ukraine’s chances: Unlikely, but if so, it’s also a good version. Indeed, we haven’t conducted offensive operations for a long time.
5. Actions aimed at creating information noise in the Russian Federation: This version is unlikely. Usually, the Russian Volunteer Corps is used for this. The complete silence surrounding the operation suggests it’s not a news story.
Unfortunately, we need to understand that the enemy is strong, and succeeding in such a situation is very, very difficult. So, don’t overestimate your expectations or those of others. But as you can see from these versions, starting this operation was correct, regardless of which version is the main one.
About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, a political and public figure, analyst, and publicist
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.
No, there are no great expectations for this operation. It is likely to evaporate like the last few in the Belgorod region.
Is it good? Is it worth it? I think so. It brings the war home to the warmonger in more ways than just an occasional strike on an oil depot, refinery, or air base. Of course, there’s always a chance that it is successful and that the AFU can stay in mafia land. This would be a powerful psychological blow to the fascist cockroaches.
Of course, achieving the first point above would be awesome. But, that NPP is around 60 km from Ukraine’s border. We’ll see…
It’s always been necessary to Ukraine to take a piece of Russia to force Russia to cede back Ukraine’s territory, and put Putin on a throne of upwardly oriented screws. It is a disposable bargaining chip at the minimum. If Russia doesn’t have about 10 full strength BTGs (manpower, heavy equipment, and supplies) on the way right now, Ukraine could go east in a big left hook and unzip the whole Russian northern line all the way to the end of Luhansk. The only way it would seem that Russia could stop this is to pull forces from everywhere along the whole eastern line of contact. To quote Malcolm “NATO” Nance, “whacha gonna do? $h!ts comin down”