January 25, 2025

• Ukraine took a huge risk attacking into Russia and taking territory last year.
• It has had positives and negatives for both countries.
• But if it still holds enough of the territory as Trump pushes for negotiations it could pay off.

Ukraine’s risky gamble to seize Russian territory could ultimately pay off, if for no other reason than the timing.

Ukrainian forces rolled the dice on a gamble and advanced into the Russian region of Kursk in August. They opted to use precious manpower and weaponry in a bold play to divert Russian resources, create a buffer zone, seize the momentum, and take land and prisoners that could be exchanged in future negotiations. The move into Kursk was a shocking development in the Ukraine war, the front lines of which had been static for months.

But the results of the surprise incursion have been mixed. While war experts have said it was a reasonable call given the morale and momentum wins, as well as the upsetting of Russia’s war plans, the move hasn’t significantly relieved pressure on the front lines in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians have struggled to hold a lot of what they captured.

Despite the setbacks, the timing of this thing could make it worthwhile. Right now, Ukraine is holding Russian territory amid a new push to end the war through negotiations.

Whoever holds territory in Kursk “is going to be in the box seat for any ceasefire negotiations,” Col. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a defense expert and a former commander for the UK’s Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear forces, told Business Insider.

New talk of negotiations

Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a conflict resolution expert at King’s College London and a former British diplomat, said this month that for Ukraine, the Kursk operation was “quite deliberate” because it was “trying to take some territory which could lead to bargaining.”

And now Trump’s re-election has created new talk of efforts to revolve the war through negotiations.

Trump has repeatedly said that he would end the war through negotiations. This week, he said he would put more economic pressure on Russia to get it to make a deal.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also signaled an increased willingness to enter talks.

Zelenskyy said in November the parts of Ukraine still under its own control could be taken “under the NATO umbrella” as part of an agreement that still holds Ukraine’s borders as its internationally recognized borders. He said Ukraine could then negotiate the return of its own territory that was still under Russian control “in a diplomatic way.”

De Bretton-Gordon said Zelenskyy’s comments reinforce that “Kursk is absolutely key.”

A “victory plan” Zelenskyy unveiled in October also called for the continuation of Ukraine’s work in Kursk, hinting at its value. De Bretton-Gordon said it shows Zelenskyy may be seeing Kursk as “a key bargaining chip.”

Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told BI that given Trump is “almost certain” to push negotiations, “it’s good to have this bargaining chip.” Plus, he said, negotiations are likely to take place sooner than they would have under a Kamala Harris presidency, making it more likely that Ukraine could hold on to a significant chunk of Kursk.

“It could work out well” for Ukraine, he said.

Kursk holds significance for the Russians, as it was a key battle and turning point in World War II. Holding Kursk gives Ukraine, which has often been on its back foot, something it can use in negotations.

Russia may want to fight over Kursk

There’s no guarantee it gets to negotiations, though. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson said last month that Russia sees “no grounds for negotiations yet.” Putin has signaled that he doesn’t want to slow down and take his foot off the gas.

George Barros, a conflict expert at the Institute for the Study of War, told BI Kursk “certainly can” play a role in negotiations, but he suspects that Russian President Vladimir Putin would rather fight rather than negotiate for Kursk.

Negotiating over his own territory would be a “massive humiliation for Putin,” he said.

Russia hasn’t pushed as hard as it could in Kursk. Barros said “it’s quite clear to me that Kursk has not been a primary objective.” Were that to change, it could have significant effects.

There are limits to what Russia can do. Focusing on Kursk could mean taking more troops out of Ukraine — something Ukraine wants as it takes the pressure off its forces. That might open the door for Ukraine to take back more of its own territory. It’s hard to know.

Negotiations might still be a long way off

If there are negotiations, they may not be immediate, and Ukraine will need to be holding a good-sized chunk to use Kursk as a bargaining chip.

Ukraine has lost much of what it held, though warfare experts said it likely gave some of that up willingly to strategically defend other parts. Some experts are still bullish about what Ukraine is holding. De Bretton-Gordon, for instance, said “Ukraine’s still holding a significant amount.”

And Ukraine also executed a new offensive push in Kursk this month. The move was “likely to grant Kyiv diplomatic leverage,” Can Kasapoğlu, a political-military expert at the Hudson Institute, wrote recently.

But for the gamble to pay off for Ukraine in terms of timing, Ukraine still needs to be holding ground if negotiations turn real — something Trump advisors said could take months more. That could be a tall order, but with the possibility of talks being openly discussed, that makes Kursk even more important.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-kursk-gamble-could-turn-out-well-with-its-timing-2025-1