Ukraine’s CRIMEA BLITZ: 5 russian Warplanes SMASHED – moscow’s Witkoff Talks STILL UNCLEAR (video commentary)

Robin Horsfall has commented on Crimea in his column today :

“In 2022 President Zelensky said, ‘The war begins with Crimea, and it will end with Crimea’. Major General Ben Hodges has always maintained Crimea is the key to victory.

The Ukraine war began in 2014 when Russian forces (who claimed to be local resistance groups) annexed Crimea. Although the world made weak protests and imposed inadequate sanctions, the west essentially regarded Ukraine to be within the Russian sphere of domination. The Minsk accords of 2014 and 2015 quickly failed in the face of continued Russian aggression. Promises of Ukrainian sovereignty were conveniently forgotten on grounds of Russian ‘implausible’ deniability. The door was opened for more Russian aggression later. The west had shown they were not prepared to defend Ukraine; Russian confidence grew as Europe grew more dependent on cheap Russian natural gas. Russia tucked the growing profits into their national wealth fund which was in effect a war chest. Once Putin had accumulated a big enough financial buffer to cope with international sanctions he invaded Ukraine. His objective was to take over Kyiv and replace Zelensky’s democratically elected government in less than a week.

His reasoning was political and financial. Putin wanted to restore Russian hegemony over eastern Europe, particularly over former Warsaw Pact nations. Crush Ukraine and watch the Baltic States tremble. The willingness of those former states to join Europe and Nato in conjunction with a considerable rise in living standards was a threat to Putin’s ambitions. It wasn’t military force Putin feared, it was western ideology.

US Senator John McCain has once described Russia as ‘A gas station masquerading as a country.’ He meant Russia’s economy relied totally on the sale of hydrocarbons. As Ukraine opened its doors to foreign investment major US oil and gas companies discovered oil and gas reserves in Eastern Ukraine. Russian gas and oil supplies were piped across Ukraine to eager customers in the west. If Ukraine could open their own ‘gas station’ a thousand miles closer, it would cut out the Russians. Rather than invest in Ukraine’s future, Putin decided to prevent any development with the threat of war. ExxonMobil and Shell withdrew their survey teams, proving Putin had Europe and the oil giants in an awkward position. There was too much for them to lose in Russia.

European appeasers and pragmatist simply folded. The media was more interested in Boris Johnson’s drinks party than 100,000 Russian troops sitting on Ukraine’s border. Russia invaded; it all looked futile, until Zelensky said ‘I don’t need a ride, I need ammunition,’ and the invincible Russian army was halted in its tracks.

Now, Russia is bleeding to death, its war chest has been reduced by 75%, its military has taken more than one million casualties. Russia has burned up 70% of it military stocks and cannot replace the losses. The only thing currently keeping the war going is the continued purchase of Russian oil by India and China. Promised secondary sanctions on India by the USA will rapidly accelerate the reduction of Russian cash reserves. Russia is using gold reserves to buy Shahed drones from Iran. The Ruble is worthless.

The crack to end the war as predicted by Zelensky will come in Crimea. Successful Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have depleted Russian air defences and opened the way to long range attacks. Constant attacks on radar stations have blinded Russian air defences leaving paths for attacks on Kerch and into Southwest Russia, the Sea of Azov and particularly the oblast of Rostov.

The main rail hub that supplies all the southern front must travel through Novocherkassk to reach Crimea. Rather than strike rails which can be quickly repaired, Ukraine targeted the electricity substations and transformers that service the trains. Although these too can be repaired the time taken and skills required are much larger. The army needs fuel, food, and ammunition to continue to fight.

Rostov has also been hit hard by successful strikes on fuel depots. No fuel, no power, no transport. Kerch Bridge, the only other rail route into Crimea is under constant threat. Recent attacks have forced one rail line over the bridge to remain closed and the second line to take all the traffic. This reduces flow by as much as 70%.

Some people ask why the bridge has not been destroyed. In the first years of the conflict, the bridge was out of air strike range but was damaged by marine drones. The vulnerability of the bridge forced Russia to commit a large portion of its air defences to its protection, weakening their defences elsewhere. Now the bridge is more vulnerable, but Ukraine might consider it wise to keep it open to allow military forces and civilians an escape route home. Trapped in Crimea the Russians might feel forced to fight to the last man.

Crimea is increasingly under siege by land, sea, and air. Sevastopol, the great port that held the Black Sea Fleet was evacuated by the navy as sea drones and air attacks increased. Crimea is suffering power cuts as fuel supplies are cut, and air space is now open to Ukraine. The Russian speaking civilian population is flooding out, as food shortages combined with high inflation and air attacks make life increasingly uncomfortable. Ukraine, in contrast to Russia, has ensured all attacks strike military targets only and avoid civilian casualties.

A Russian withdrawal from Crimea could be the second nail in Putin’s coffin, Syria being the first. His reputation as a strong man relies heavily on holding Crimea. He began the war there in 2014, let us look forward to watching his demise, the end of the war, and a return to peace and prosperity in Eastern Europe.”

Slava Ukraini!

Who Dares Shares

Robin Horsfall

5 comments

Bill B. says:

August 4, 2025 at 1:01 pm

https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxQOWN4DiWjbre3cD8Yik1bJBTp2OViJP5

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scradge1 says:

August 4, 2025 at 3:06 pm

Robin Horsfall has commented on Crimea in his column today :

“In 2022 President Zelensky said, ‘The war begins with Crimea, and it will end with Crimea’. Major General Ben Hodges has always maintained Crimea is the key to victory.

The Ukraine war began in 2014 when Russian forces (who claimed to be local resistance groups) annexed Crimea. Although the world made weak protests and imposed inadequate sanctions, the west essentially regarded Ukraine to be within the Russian sphere of domination. The Minsk accords of 2014 and 2015 quickly failed in the face of continued Russian aggression. Promises of Ukrainian sovereignty were conveniently forgotten on grounds of Russian ‘implausible’ deniability. The door was opened for more Russian aggression later. The west had shown they were not prepared to defend Ukraine; Russian confidence grew as Europe grew more dependent on cheap Russian natural gas. Russia tucked the growing profits into their national wealth fund which was in effect a war chest. Once Putin had accumulated a big enough financial buffer to cope with international sanctions he invaded Ukraine. His objective was to take over Kyiv and replace Zelensky’s democratically elected government in less than a week.

His reasoning was political and financial. Putin wanted to restore Russian hegemony over eastern Europe, particularly over former Warsaw Pact nations. Crush Ukraine and watch the Baltic States tremble. The willingness of those former states to join Europe and Nato in conjunction with a considerable rise in living standards was a threat to Putin’s ambitions. It wasn’t military force Putin feared, it was western ideology.

US Senator John McCain has once described Russia as ‘A gas station masquerading as a country.’ He meant Russia’s economy relied totally on the sale of hydrocarbons. As Ukraine opened its doors to foreign investment major US oil and gas companies discovered oil and gas reserves in Eastern Ukraine. Russian gas and oil supplies were piped across Ukraine to eager customers in the west. If Ukraine could open their own ‘gas station’ a thousand miles closer, it would cut out the Russians. Rather than invest in Ukraine’s future, Putin decided to prevent any development with the threat of war. ExxonMobil and Shell withdrew their survey teams, proving Putin had Europe and the oil giants in an awkward position. There was too much for them to lose in Russia.

European appeasers and pragmatist simply folded. The media was more interested in Boris Johnson’s drinks party than 100,000 Russian troops sitting on Ukraine’s border. Russia invaded; it all looked futile, until Zelensky said ‘I don’t need a ride, I need ammunition,’ and the invincible Russian army was halted in its tracks.

Now, Russia is bleeding to death, its war chest has been reduced by 75%, its military has taken more than one million casualties. Russia has burned up 70% of it military stocks and cannot replace the losses. The only thing currently keeping the war going is the continued purchase of Russian oil by India and China. Promised secondary sanctions on India by the USA will rapidly accelerate the reduction of Russian cash reserves. Russia is using gold reserves to buy Shahed drones from Iran. The Ruble is worthless.

The crack to end the war as predicted by Zelensky will come in Crimea. Successful Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have depleted Russian air defences and opened the way to long range attacks. Constant attacks on radar stations have blinded Russian air defences leaving paths for attacks on Kerch and into Southwest Russia, the Sea of Azov and particularly the oblast of Rostov.

The main rail hub that supplies all the southern front must travel through Novocherkassk to reach Crimea. Rather than strike rails which can be quickly repaired, Ukraine targeted the electricity substations and transformers that service the trains. Although these too can be repaired the time taken and skills required are much larger. The army needs fuel, food, and ammunition to continue to fight.

Rostov has also been hit hard by successful strikes on fuel depots. No fuel, no power, no transport. Kerch Bridge, the only other rail route into Crimea is under constant threat. Recent attacks have forced one rail line over the bridge to remain closed and the second line to take all the traffic. This reduces flow by as much as 70%.

Some people ask why the bridge has not been destroyed. In the first years of the conflict, the bridge was out of air strike range but was damaged by marine drones. The vulnerability of the bridge forced Russia to commit a large portion of its air defences to its protection, weakening their defences elsewhere. Now the bridge is more vulnerable, but Ukraine might consider it wise to keep it open to allow military forces and civilians an escape route home. Trapped in Crimea the Russians might feel forced to fight to the last man.

Crimea is increasingly under siege by land, sea, and air. Sevastopol, the great port that held the Black Sea Fleet was evacuated by the navy as sea drones and air attacks increased. Crimea is suffering power cuts as fuel supplies are cut, and air space is now open to Ukraine. The Russian speaking civilian population is flooding out, as food shortages combined with high inflation and air attacks make life increasingly uncomfortable. Ukraine, in contrast to Russia, has ensured all attacks strike military targets only and avoid civilian casualties.

A Russian withdrawal from Crimea could be the second nail in Putin’s coffin, Syria being the first. His reputation as a strong man relies heavily on holding Crimea. He began the war there in 2014, let us look forward to watching his demise, the end of the war, and a return to peace and prosperity in Eastern Europe.”

Slava Ukraini!

Who Dares Shares

Robin Horsfall

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- onlyfactsplease says:
  
  August 4, 2025 at 5:11 pm
  
  Thanks for Robin’s statement, Scradge. It’s always a pleasure to see what his thoughts are.
  I’m convinced that Ukraine will get the Crimea back, and this in the near future. Mafia land has been vastly weakened, and the continued low oil price will eventually break its economic neck. Sometimes things can happen very quickly. History is full of such events, with Syria being the latest example. Mafia land can find itself in a very similar situation.
  
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Larry M. says:

August 5, 2025 at 1:18 am

“port that held the Black Sea Fleet was evacuated by the navy”

I recently saw a cute meme:

russian newscaster: Russia has no ships in the Black Sea!

Ukranian: Have you looked at the bottom?
🙂

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- Bill B. says:
  
  August 5, 2025 at 1:27 am
  
  🤣👍
  
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