12.12.2025
SBU strike drones struck an oil production platform of the Russian company “Lukoil-Nizhnevolzhskneft”. It would seem that there is something strange in this – taking into account the activity of Ukrainian sea and air drones, but the fact is that this happened in the Caspian Sea. Moreover, this is not the first successful operation to destroy targets in this region, which means the expansion and intensification of operations in the Caspian Sea .
According to published information, the platform suffered at least four direct hits from strike drones, which forced the suspension of oil production from more than 20 wells at the facility.
Of course, if we talk about the fact of the destruction of an oil production facility in the Caspian Sea (or, to be precise, a lake), then this is the first verified fact. But the thing is that the raids and successful operations in this region are not the first time and, it should be noted, are on a scale.
The Caspian Sea is not a quiet harbor
In November 2024, for the first time during the entire period of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian drones struck ships of the Caspian Flotilla of the Russian Navy.
According to information published at the time, the strike damaged the Project 11661 warships Tatarstan and Dagestan, and also hit the mooring area of the Project 21631 small missile boat and the Project 12418 missile boat, the only representative of which in the Caspian Flotilla is Stupynets.
The important moment of the strike was not only that this was the region that first experienced the effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range drones, but also the fact that our weapon covered hundreds of kilometers during the day through Russian echeloned air defense and struck ships, which in themselves are floating, maritime air defense systems !
But could the Russian occupiers have imagined that this would be just a test of their pen? The answer is obvious – no.
After all, at the end of April 2024, two small missile ships of the Project 22800 “Karakurt” were withdrawn from Novorossiysk, where the main combat force of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was deployed, namely “Amur” and “Tuchu”. They were relocated to the shipyard in Zelenodolsk (Tatarstan ) for completion, and then to the Caspian Sea. It would seem that they are far from sin, but no.
Literally at the beginning of December 2025, on the night of the first, Ukrainian drones attacked facilities in Dagestan.
Earlier, in October, the Ukrainian SSR struck the Project 21631 missile ship “Buyan-M” , which was heading from the Baltic to the Caspian Sea.
Now Ukraine is focusing not only on the issue of disabling the Russian oil refining industry in the European part of the country, as well as the tanker transportation of the shadow fleet in the Black Sea, but is also launching point operations in the Caspian Sea. Moreover, these operations concern not only the naval component, but also the extractive industry.
And it seems that Russia currently does not have sufficient resources and capabilities to prevent these attacks.
Conclusions
A year ago, Ukraine tested the capabilities of long-range strikes in those regions of the Russian Federation that were considered deep rear areas or safe havens. The test of the pen included testing the strength of air defense systems and conducting primary reconnaissance activities.
Now we see how Ukrainian drones in the Black Sea are taking control of the transportation of oil products by the Russian shadow fleet and creating risks for the aggressor country of a complete blockade of this water area – not only in terms of warships, but also of commercial shipping.
https://t.me/uaobozrevatel/200428
But the Black Sea is not enough. Ukraine is reaching the level of control of Russia in other water areas as well. And if we cannot reach the Baltic Sea yet, then transit between the seas, as we see, can be intercepted, which creates threats. But where the prospect of creating the following not at all comfortable conditions for Russia is quite real, it is, of course, in the Caspian Sea.
Russia’s loss of control over the Black Sea is a long-standing issue, but if in 2026 it happens, for example, in the Caspian Sea… Such a shame for the Russian, Soviet, or Russian-imperial fleet – to turn into a carcass for beating in two seas, even if one of them is actually a lake – has never happened in the context of a century of history.
On the other hand, I repeat, Ukraine has not yet begun to systematically work on the Baltic Sea.
“On the other hand, I repeat, Ukraine has not yet begun to systematically work on the Baltic Sea.”
A little hint that the Baltic Sea could be next for Ukraine to strike. Seeing that Europe prefers watching the shadow fleet come and go, with unsafe ships, this could be interesting to watch.