June 25, 2026
Zelensky is openly threatening Moscow’s closest ally – and winning the psychological battle
Ukraine’s escalating strike campaign and threats against a key ally of Vladimir Putin reveal a growing confidence in Kyiv and point to a shift in how it is fighting the war.
The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, threatened Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Russian ally Belarus, last week over equipment positioned in his country that was being used to attack Ukraine.
Zelensky said signal relay stations located in two regions of Belarus over the border from Ukraine were being used by Russia to help drones navigate to attack Ukrainian cities.
“Let [Lukashenko] remove this equipment, let him switch it off,” Zelensky said on Friday. “I think a week will be enough for him to do that. If he doesn’t do it, we’ll do it.”
The Kremlin has been alarmed by the ultimatum, which comes as Kyiv ramps up strikes against major urban centres in Russia as well as key military and energy sites that support its war machine. The capital, Moscow, has come under attack three times over the past week.
Zelensky’s bold rhetoric
Zelensky’s threat, coming at a time when Ukraine is increasingly using high-tech weapons to strike deep inside Russia, may be a fresh sign Kyiv feels it is winning the psychological battle against Putin and successfully seizing control of the narrative.
The challenge to Belarus is only the latest in a series of statements from the Ukrainian President that have been seen as trolling Putin and his allies.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to Zelensky’s challenge to Belarus by telling reporters that the threat was “utterly aggressive” and – unironically – that Zelensky’s comments were “interference in the internal affairs of another country and an encroachment on another country’s sovereignty”.
It also comes amid reports that Russia is increasing pressure on Belarus to play a bigger role in the war. Former and current Russian and European officials said Moscow wanted Belarusian territory to be used for expanded military operations or to launch operations against Nato, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Zelensky said last month that Kyiv had obtained details of communications between Russia and Belarus indicating that Moscow wanted to Belarus for potential operations in Ukraine or in Baltic states. A former Russian intelligence officer confirmed Moscow was threatening to withhold financial lifelines on which Minsk is dependent.
Peskov said Russia would defend Belarus against any military threats and added: “Belarus isn’t participating.”
Lukashenko himself, a dictator who has ruled Belarus since 1994 by crushing any opposition, has managed to play both sides skilfully, according to Anna Matveeva, senior visiting research fellow at King’s College London’s Russia Institute.
She said the Belarusian leader, who has allowed his territory to host Russian weapons and troops during the war – including during the initial invasion – had been careful not to drag it into the conflict directly, a point Lukashenko reiterated last month, dismissing any thoughts of his country getting involved in the conflict.
Zelensky also provoked Kremlin anger in May by threatening to bomb Moscow’s annual Victory Day military parade, and published an open letter proposing peace talks this month in which he cheekily added “after 26 years in power, age is beginning to take its toll” on Putin.
Zelensky has always been confident about Ukraine’s position, despite others in the government being more cautious, said Matveeva, but he was now using rhetoric to try to convince Western allies that his country was able to hold out against Putin’s army.
“I think it’s geared towards the West to convince European leaders, and the US, that Ukraine is on the move and that Ukraine can make it through the conflict,” she said.
Russia’s air defence problem
Zelensky’s increased confidence is buoyed by a change in strategy, which is targeting and degrading Russian air defences as it tries to hit critical infrastructure.
Kyiv attempting to strike sites deep within Russia is not a new tactic, using helicopters to hit an oil depot in the southern city of Belgorod in April 2022 for example. However, the difference now is that Ukraine has been able to significantly increase the scale and success of its efforts thanks to increased missile-making capabilities and inadequate Russian air defences.
Ukrainian forces have hit a space communication centre north of Moscow and a factory making crucial missile technology in Voronezh in the south-west in the past few days, building on recent waves of drone and missile strikes against energy facilities in Russia.
The Ukrainian tactics are having an effect. Petrol shortages and rationing are hitting Russians across the country with surging prices and long queues at pumps far from the front lines, with the independent think-tank the Institute for the Study of War pointing to the impact on Kremlin supply chains to troops at the front.
The air defence battle is costing Russia manpower and money as Putin’s generals scramble to protect the motherland.
“Russia lacks the necessary mobile air defence groups to repel Ukrainian strikes and now has to recruit additional air defenders while simultaneously trying to recruit fighters for the front line,” said Jennie Olmsted, Russia researcher at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington DC.
“The strikes will require the Kremlin to recruit more air defenders to protect the Russian rear areas in both occupied Ukraine and Russia, which will further drain Russian recruitment,” said Olmsted who also highlighted the costs for Putin of introducing restrictions on fuel sales across the country.
William Freer, research fellow in national security at the Council on Geostrategy, agrees on the importance of degrading Russian air defences.
“Recent Ukrainian successes will cause greater and greater problems for the Russian war effort and reduce their ability to sustain their own strike campaign,” he said.
Russian air defences are overstretched and under pressure, forcing the Kremlin to make difficult decisions about which sites to defend, according to Freer, an issue he sees growing as Ukraine hits more sites across Russia.
“The fact that Ukrainian strikes are now hitting sites further afield in better-defended locations and more regularly is deeply embarrassing for the Kremlin.
“The recent strike successes will also help alleviate some of the challenges Kyiv faces by reducing the pressure on Ukraine’s own air defences as well as its wider critical infrastructure by damaging Russia’s drone and missile production,” Freer explained to The i Paper.
Tactical successes mask strategic challenges
However, there is a risk that recent tactical successes for Ukraine’s forces are masking underlying strategic challenges.
While striking Moscow and other major cities is symbolically important, it does not necessarily translate into shifts on the front line, according to Matveeva.
“Drone strikes alone, even if they are successful, do not win battles on the ground. And at the front we are not seeing much of a shift,” she said.
Tipping the scales in the air defence battle, however, appears to be giving Zelensky more self-belief that Ukraine can prevail – a message he is keen to get out to the world.
For Freer, the West should pay attention to the lessons learned by the Ukrainians.
“The first lesson is the importance of balancing air defence requirements with offensive capabilities. Focusing on air defence alone is a losing battle, and European Nato countries need to significantly improve capabilities to destroy enemy air defences and the factories which sustain them,” he said.
The other lesson, says Freer, “is the importance of high numbers of lower-cost, albeit less capable, strike weapons to overwhelm air defences and increase the rate of interceptor consumption”, as the Iranians and Gulf countries have seen in the conflict in the Middle East in recent months.
Zelensky seems determined to keep up the air attacks and the trolling – and both Putin and the West will be forced to listen.
“Interfering in the internal affairs of another country ” – Peskov. Youll be lucky to have a pot to piss in if Zel has his way, so piss off Peskov!