25 June 2026
The US-Iran agreement, which opened the Strait of Hormuz and released tankers carrying dozens of Middle Eastern barrels onto the global market, has plunged Russian oil prices.
Based on Dated Brent prices—the benchmark to which 80% of the world’s crude oil is pegged—the price of Urals has fallen to $50 per barrel, writes Yegor Susin, Managing Director of Gazprombank Private. On Thursday, the price of Dated Brent fell to $72, and the discount on Urals is currently hovering around $22 per barrel, he explains.
Since the peak in April, when Russia’s main grade was selling for export in Western ports at $116 per barrel, Urals prices have more than halved. As a result, the oil price has once again fallen below the budgeted level, which was based on a price of $59 per barrel.
The average price of Urals crude in June, which will be used to calculate oil and gas taxes for the budget, will be approximately $63 per barrel, according to Susin’s calculations. This is 27% lower than in May ($86.52 per barrel) and 33% lower than the average price in April ($94.87), which was a record high since 2014.
Oil prices have returned to pre-war levels in Iran: Brent fell to $72 on Thursday. This means that “we should expect worsening problems with the Russian budget in August and September,” warns Andrey Zatsepin, an analyst at Alor Broker.
In May, after oil prices soared, oil and gas revenues rose by 70% compared to January and February, and by 38% year-on-year. Despite this, the deficit for the first five months reached a record 6 trillion rubles, 1.6 times higher than the full-year plan.
To cover the deficit, the authorities “will have to increase the money supply, and after the Duma elections in September, unpopular decisions such as a tax on ‘excess profits’ cannot be ruled out,” Zatsepin believes.
A critical budget parameter—the price of oil in rubles—has returned to pre-war levels, write analysts at Vector Capital. The situation is somewhat mitigated by record crude oil exports, they emphasize. Due to the strikes on refineries, oil companies are left with large amounts of unprocessed barrels, and they are exporting crude at the limit of port capacity: according to Reuters, the planned shipments through the Baltic Sea for June reached 2.8 million barrels per day—1 million more than initially estimated.
The question remains, however, how much of this oil is actually sold, rather than refined and then imported into gasoline in Russia, writes Vector Capital.
The Ministry of Finance initially budgeted 8.8 trillion rubles in oil and gas revenues in the 2026 budget law. However, over the first five months, it recorded a 30% year-on-year decline. The Accounts Chamber estimates that the budget could lose approximately 1 trillion rubles in raw material rents over the year. According to its forecast, oil and gas revenues will amount to 7.8 trillion rubles.
Ouch!
Couple that with their burning refineries and oil depots.
Double ouch!
They still made more money than they should have thanks to Bessent lifting sanctions.