By Svitlana Morenets

Jan 12, 2024

In his surprise visit to Kyiv, Rishi Sunak had two pieces of good news for Ukrainians: another £2.5 billion in military aid and an agreement to sign a bilateral defence deal. Ukraine isn’t going to join Nato any time soon, so Volodymyr Zelensky has been trying to build a next-best alternative: a series of deals with allies. Britain is the first.

The UK says it will provide intelligence sharing, cyber security, medical and military training and defence industrial cooperation. And post-war, if Ukraine is ever attacked by Russia again, the UK will agree to provide ‘swift and sustained’ assistance. The Ukrainian government has been negotiating such agreements with 30 other countries; Sunak’s decision could potentially set a trend. He’s expected to sign the agreement later today.

The Prime Minister is well-regarded in Ukraine and the £2.5 billion is a larger amount than anyone else has offered – other than the US. It means long-range missiles, air defence, artillery ammunition and maritime security. At least £200 million has been set aside to fund the production of drones, including surveillance, long-range strike and sea drones. In his New Year’s speech, Zelensky said he’d try to oversee the production of a million of them this year to break the war’s deadlock.

If Ukrainians feared that western support was wavering at the end of last year, this month has finally brought with it a positive turn. This week, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania offered aid packages to Ukraine which contain ammunition, drones, generators, demining systems and more. It is expected that other allies will join the effort.

Rishi and Zel together today. From today’s DT:

……..

In words

‘They are eager to turn the Red Sea into a bloodbath. We see that the Houthis are making very successful defences against the strikes.’ 

– Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, criticises the US and British airstrikes on the Houthis last night.

……..

Svitlana posted the following article prior to Rishi’s surprise visit:

The analysis

Zelensky’s ten-point plan for peace

Peace talks may still be far away, but Ukraine and Russia are already gearing up for possible negotiations, with each side rallying allies they believe may back their conditions to end the fighting. Last month, Ukraine and the G7 secretly held peace talks with neutral countries from the Global South, trying to convince them to back Ukraine’s peace formula. These talks have reportedly failed to produce results. Now, Volodymyr Zelensky is en route to Switzerland on the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he will try to get more than 100 invited countries on his side.

Russia’s conditions to end the war are well-known: demilitarisation and the neutral status of Ukraine, with Vladimir Putin also keen to keep all occupied lands and win immunity for war crimes. But what of Zelensky’s own peace plan? It consists of ten principles capable, the Ukrainian President believes, of creating a ‘universal basis for ending other military conflicts’.

The first point of Zelensky’s plan calls for radiation and nuclear safety. Russian troops must withdraw from Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which must be reconnected to the Ukrainian power grid. Zelensky also thinks it is possible to force Russia to abandon its nuclear blackmail on the basis of the Budapest Memorandum – an outcome that will depend on the UK and the US, which are signatory states to the agreement.

In the second point, Kyiv proposes making the ‘grain agreement’ brokered by the UN and Turkey permanent, regardless of how the war develops. Ukraine and its allies must secure navigation in the Black and Azov seas, ensuring its grain exports can get to the world’s poorest nations.

Thirdly Ukraine must obtain enough air defence systems to protect its energy infrastructure. Zelensky will ask the UN to evaluate Ukraine’s power plants to see how badly they have been damaged in the Russian strikes. Kyiv is also seeking aid to fund high-voltage equipment, generators, transformer substations and floating power plants.

The fourth point calls for the exchange of prisoners of war ‘all for all’, as well as the return of all Ukrainian children (nearly 20,000) and civilians deported to Russia.

The fifth point: no compromises with Russia. Ukraine will restore its territorial integrity – and Putin must reaffirm it, according to the UN Charter. The withdrawal of Russian troops comes sixth: Zelensky believes that only after Ukraine regains control over all its territories, including Donbas and Crimea, will there be a real and complete cessation of hostilities.

The seventh point proposes establishing a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes and to work out the cost of damages sustained in the war. Zelensky proposes funding Ukraine’s reconstruction using £236 billion of frozen Russian assets, which will cover around 80 per cent of the cost of rebuilding, according to Ukraine’s foreign minister.

Point eight emphasises environmental protection, particularly getting rid of land mines and rehabilitating water treatment facilities, given that nearly a third of Ukraine is mined. The World Bank estimates mine clearance costs between £1.50 and £6 per square metre, totalling £27.6 billion over the next decade. Kyiv anticipates Russia covering these expenses.

The ninth point involves securing support in military equipment, training, defence industry collaboration and immediate action by guarantor countries in case of a new invasion. Kyiv is in the process of negotiating security agreements with each country separately, with ongoing talks with the UK. 

Finally, the tenth point is to sign an agreement to end the war officially. This can be facilitated by various states that are ready to take the lead in negotiations. 

This week, Zelensky claimed that ambassadors from 63 countries have already joined the discussion on implementing Ukraine’s peace formula. Russia has predictably rejected all the conditions. Both Zelensky and Putin stand firmly by their plans; both are still hoping to come out of this war as victors. The eventual agreement may find a middle ground. In the meantime, both sides have opportunities to sway the outcome in their favour.

In pictures

Pokrovsk district, Donetsk Oblast: Ukrainian rescuers, with the help of a dog trained to find human remains, look for the victims of a Russian strike, which killed 11 people, including five children (Ukraine’s State Emergency Service)

Quote of the week

‘If we want to preserve Ukraine, if we want to preserve Europe, then we must all understand: we either help Ukraine or not; we are either the citizens who are in the front, or the citizens who work and pay taxes. [If the taxes are not paid] there will be no funds for the military. And if there is no money to fund the soldiers, then there will be no soldiers, there will be no one to defend Ukraine.’

– Volodymyr Zelensky on why Ukrainian men should return from abroad and – at the least – pay taxes to support the war effort

The war in numbers

Ukrainian cargo sent via Black Sea since September

15m tonnes

Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria have stepped up mine-sweeping efforts to protect shipping in the area

Subway sandwich stores in Russia

500

Ukraine has added the company to its list of ‘war sponsors’

Value of Russian war components source from abroad

$7.3bn

At least a third comes from the US and allied states with sanctions on Russia

By Svitlana Morenets

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• Ukraine’s lawmakers have failed to approve new conscription regulations, which aimed to recruit half a million people to the army. The draft law will be revised because some provisions violate human rights.
• Russia has 19,000 troops on Ukraine’s northern border, which is not enough to break through Ukrainian lines, according to Ukraine’s military.
• The UK is ready to help Ukraine ‘for many years to come’, David Cameron has said. The Foreign Secretary also stressed the need to boost military production to keep up with Russia.
• If Ukraine doesn’t solve its manpower problems, increase weapons production and set a realistic military strategy soon, its territorial losses could prove permanent and may well expand, Time magazine has reported.
• Hungary has signalled it might lift its veto of £43bn in EU funding for Ukraine if the aid is reviewed yearly.
• The UN estimates that more than 14.6 million people – 40% of Ukraine’s population – will need humanitarian aid this year.
• The missile defence system that Canada promised Ukraine a year ago still hasn’t been delivered. It is unclear when it will be.
• Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to give Russian citizenship to Ukrainian children deported to Russia.
• The Polish EU Commissioner has threatenedto block Ukraine’s duty-free trade with the EU because of ‘excessive’ Ukrainian agricultural imports.
• Russia has deported or detained thousands of Ukrainian civilians without charge, trials or access to legal counsel, the BBC has reported.
• A majority – 63% – of Russians continue to support the full-scale war against Ukraine, which they see as symptomatic of a larger ‘civilisational struggle between Russia and the West’, according to a poll.

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A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk