2.09.2025

Chinese President Xi Jinping gathered more than 20 world leaders at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, demonstrating the solidarity of the South under China’s auspices against the backdrop of Trump’s tariff wars against the entire world. Xi used the summit as an opportunity to announce what the international order is beginning to look like after the weakening of the United States, and that all the efforts of the White House since January to counter China and separate Russia from it have not brought the desired result. The Chinese leader is making every effort to demonstrate that, against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s incomprehensible and dangerous policies, which disrupt economic relations with both allies and adversaries, China is a stable and predictable partner, and its leader offers a better alternative to Donald Trump’s “global chaos”.

Xi Jinping could hardly have imagined a more opportune moment to strengthen his relations with India and Russia. One is being pushed back by Trump’s tariffs and demands, the other has been drawn out of isolation by his own embrace. For three decades, successive American presidents have invested enormous diplomatic capital in cultivating a friendship with India—a friendship that Trump has destroyed in a matter of months. Xi has a real chance to turn India’s estrangement from the United States to his advantage. This rapprochement, as well as the presence of leaders from dozens of other countries, including Turkey, Egypt, Malaysia, and Pakistan, contrast with the growing discord in the U.S. alliance with its European and Asian allies.

Xi will also reinforce his claims to political leadership in the world with a military component. After the SCO summit in Beijing, China will hold the largest military parade in its history. The PRC will demonstrate not only its achievements in the field of weapons, but also the most important technologies necessary for use in future conflicts. All this is part of efforts designed to intimidate and deter potential rivals. This year’s parade is not just a ceremonial demonstration of troops and weapons. It is a carefully planned act of strategic communication, addressed to both internal and external audiences. In essence, the Chinese are being told: once weak China is now a superpower. For a foreign audience, this is a signal that the People’s Liberation Army of the PRC is no longer just preparing for future wars, but is already ready for combat operations today.

As for the visit of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, he will be in China for four days. “Relations between the PRC and the Russian Federation are at their best level in history,” says a report by the Chinese state television channel CCTV, but even without that, it is clear that Putin’s unusually long visit to Xi is designed to demonstrate to the West that the “boundless friendship” of Russia and China is only getting stronger, and that US attempts to drive a wedge between them are doomed to failure. In general, this summer, China seems to have decided to finally end its games of “neutral peacemaker” in the Russian-Ukrainian war and demonstrate its real priorities. There have been many signals in recent months that Russia’s defeat in the war is undesirable for China. After the symbolic visit of Chinese leader Xi Jinping to the parade in Moscow, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told EU representatives in July that Beijing does not want Russia to lose the war. All this is happening against the backdrop of constant statements by Ukraine and the West about increasing military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, which the PRC denies.

In China, Putin looks quite confident. Unfortunately, such a gift was given to him by Trump, who made every effort to pull the dictator out of his foreign policy “bunker”. Just six months ago, he looked like a man who was suffering a fiasco in Ukraine, and the Russian economy was slowly but surely declining under the pressure of Western sanctions. Today, Putin looks like a man whom the US president not only calls almost every month and is forced to reckon with, but who is “honored” to hold a summit with him on American territory. The “red carpet” in Alaska nullified the West’s efforts to isolate and punish Putin. At the same time, the dictator actually rejected all the US president’s peace proposals, without negative consequences for himself. For the leaders who gathered in China, Trump’s behavior forces them to reckon with new realities that are very painful for Ukraine – Putin is back in the world cohort.

Andriy Veselovsky , diplomat, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine, Representative of Ukraine to the EU in 2008-2010, shared his thoughts on these issues in an exclusive interview for OBOZ.UA.

– Xi Jinping rolled out the red carpet for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and about 20 other national leaders who arrived for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. It is noted that the meeting is designed to consolidate Beijing’s influence and defend its vision of a “multipolar world order”, especially against the backdrop of sanctions pressure from Trump. What exactly does China want? Against the backdrop of pressure from Trump, will Xi manage to show that the PRC is a more attractive alternative to the United States for the Global South today?

– Summits always gather a large number of participants. Leaders of states and governments come, agree on some things, record preliminary agreements. Therefore, there is nothing strange here – this happens with NATO and other large organizations. But the form and scale of this year in Beijing are truly special. Because China timed the summit to the so-called 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II. This is September 2, 1945, when Japan surrendered. Although it is worth clarifying – it was not yet communist China, but let’s leave that aside. So, the combination of the historical anniversary and the SCO summit created a large crowd that we are observing.

This time, two more important factors were added. First, all SCO participants and observers were required to come to China. Second, the participation of the Indian Prime Minister, which seemed incredible six months ago. After all, India and China are rivals who from time to time even meet on the battlefield in the Himalayas. And although the dead there number in the dozens, for the scale of these countries this seems like a trifle. But blood was still shed, and it is always followed by revenge, resentment, and accumulated distrust. And suddenly Modi goes to China. This seems unexpected. This is often explained by the actions of the United States. Let me remind you that Trump significantly raised tariffs on Indian goods. Modi was offended, and not without reason, and decided to go to China when many countries in the world had already concluded: it is impossible to be friends with the States, nor to build stable and predictable relations.

– So it turns out that it was Trump who created the necessary ground for Xi Jinping to demonstrate: China is an alternative…

– His plan was simple: to “bend” the whole world in half a year of being in power. And he acted actively. He left China “for dessert”. He achieved serious concessions from South Korea, Japan, even the EU. He “saved” Britain, so to speak, but also “pinched” it by 10%. There were still a few big players left – Brazil, India and China. And now he is hitting India. This added a new level of insult and humiliation to the already existing distrust. You were right: Trump actually created a wonderful platform for Xi Jinping to gather half the world around him. Or to be precise – even more. In terms of population and economy, it is no longer half the world, but a larger part of it. The result of stupid actions is always stupid consequences. And here we have a classic example.

The US administration is unable to adequately assess the modern world, does not understand real problems and opportunities. The analytical potential has been reduced to a few people who have never seriously demonstrated themselves anywhere before. Peter Navarro comments on foreign trade. Stephen Miller comments on diplomacy. Excellent “experts”. In addition, the National Security Council has been reduced threefold. Many professionals have been expelled from the State Department, the Justice Department, the Defense Department, the Energy and Security Departments. Those who do not consider Trump “the wisest in history” have at least been deprived of their voice. The result? China has remained practically unharmed. Moreover, it has become stronger politically and in the media. And the US has turned into a loud mouthpiece behind which there is nothing. There stands a “little man with a huge megaphone” who loudly shouts something, but nothing happens beyond that.

– Western countries, especially the United States, have for years viewed India as a bulwark against China. In this situation, we see an important moment for us: the two Asian giants are starting to get closer. They have not yet joined forces, but they have already synchronized their assessments. Before Trump, several presidents were building relations with New Delhi step by step to strengthen this alliance. As Michael McFaul aptly wrote: “not so long ago, India and China were at war with each other, and today Modi is going to Xi for the first time in many years. How the hell did Trump manage to destroy in a few weeks everything that several presidents had built for decades? ” And Modi’s words: “The dragon and the elephant have united – the world is moving towards transformation.” So, does Modi’s visit to China really mean a turning point?

– That’s still a long way off. McFaul is exaggerating. India and China have been at war for at least 80 years. It’s worth noting that India hasn’t been “moving towards China” for the past decade, but has been gradually increasing its economic interests related to it. However, it should be noted that their economies are disproportionate. This ratio is approximately one to four: China is “four”, India is “one”. They are still more or less on par in terms of population, but not in terms of business organization, scientific and technological development, and economic growth. And most importantly: China considers itself a global power, while India, in its strategy and thinking, remains more of a regional power. Therefore, this is not an alliance of equal giants, but rather a cautious attempt by China to pull India under its control. The Russian Federation has already “pulled” China up in terms of energy and partly militarily (because it also takes technology from there). And it wants to integrate India economically – by setting up its own production facilities and specialists there.

That is, we do not have a rapprochement of two giants, but a slow “boa constrictor swallowing an elephant.” Because who is a dragon? It is actually a snake. And this boa constrictor carefully swallows an elephant. The elephant is big, it will take a long time to swallow. So it is done slowly, gradually. At the same time, a democratic process is underway in India, there are opposition parties. In addition, it is an extremely diverse society. Only Muslims are about a quarter of the population. And these are always internal contradictions, splits. Therefore, there will still be many problems on this path. But the fact remains: the States have almost certainly lost India. And this is important.

– Regarding the factor of Putin’s visit. The dictator spoke at the SCO summit and repeated again that the cause of the Ukrainian crisis is not Russia, but a “coup d’état” and “insidious NATO”, again about “root causes “. But what is interesting is that he devoted almost half of his speech to Ukraine.

– On the one hand, it’s good that people are interested in this issue. On the other hand, it’s a disaster that they hear exactly this. And no one denies it. Putin’s task now is to make his idiotic narrative a dogma that will block aid for decades. Ukraine has been trying to reach the global level for the past year and a half: contacts with South Africa, Brazil, India, President Zelensky’s tour of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia. This is all good, but these are rather episodic movements, because we cannot afford a systematic foreign policy – ​​we need huge money. But Russia is working systematically. Its task is to ideologically and pseudo-historically cut off Euro-Atlantic from the rest of the world on the issue of Ukraine. Conventionally, Britain says to some of its former colonies, for example, Nigeria: “Let’s help Ukraine, vote like this and that.” And in response: “No, there was a coup there, there were Nazis there. We know – Putin explained.” And so a global majority is being created that thinks in unison with the Kremlin.

The SCO is an ideal platform for this. Everyone reads what is happening there, and everyone takes “five lines” from Putin’s speech. And among them there will always be those three: “coup d’état”, “Nazis”, “NATO is attacking”. That’s enough. That’s what he does: purposefully, consciously and consistently.

– And the fact that Russian-American contacts were also discussed by Putin and Xi. Does this look like a report from a younger comrade to a senior? Is this normal practice between allies?

– There is no such thing, and Xi Jinping doesn’t need it now. He is interested in something else: establishing himself in Southeast Asia. This is an extremely dynamic region, but there are still many Americans there. The Philippines is actually an American zone. Malaysia, Thailand – the situation is precarious. Vietnam, Myanmar – yes, but these are trifles.

China needs the entire region. And then – the path through Pakistan to the Arab oil monarchies. Because this is a reserve. If something happens to Russia and it stops supplying oil, who will provide a replacement? The Arab East. Therefore, for Xi, talks with Putin are more like an exchange of ideas. Putin will tell him “in secret” everything that we already know. He can even lie – as always. Remember: before the meeting with Trump, he said that there would be one thing, but it turned out to be completely different. But “out of friendship” he can present everything in the right light. And this exchange creates the illusion of “great trust”, “great friendship”. Without this, strong alliances are impossible. And between the US and Europe, this is precisely not the case. Macron will never trust Trump, because Trump in “confidential conversations” only betrays idiocy. Therefore, I would not rush to talk about “vassalage”. This is more like a propaganda picture. The reality is more complicated.

– To what extent does Donald Trump’s current foreign policy – ​​at least in the form in which he and his team outline it – play into China’s hands? After all, on the one hand, they directly say: China is the main threat to the United States in the coming years. And on the other hand, the behavior of the American president, to put it mildly, is pushing away allies: from Europe to Asia and North America.

– A sign of quality leadership is a well-thought-out strategy based on expertise. And Trump has destroyed this expertise. Instead of professional advisors, he has relied on sycophants, on those who are personally loyal to him and repeat political slogans. As a result, there is no systematic analysis, there are only emotional movements. They are noticed because of the weight of the state, but because of the chaos, they are either ignored or bypassed. China, on the other hand, has both a strategy and experts.

If the US had a different president, we would see a completely different picture. The same call to increase defense spending in Europe is the right step. But the problem is that Trump did it in a humiliating form. Biden said the same thing, only quietly and diplomatically – and the process went on. And under Trump, the form devalued the content. The Europeans did increase spending, but not out of trust, but out of coercion. And these are different things. Now they will do it for themselves, and not “with a pure heart” for Washington. As a result, the Euro-Atlantic is becoming weaker. Because the strength of any alliance is based on mutual trust. If one side is forced to serve, and the other speaks only the language of force – this is not an alliance, but forced coexistence. Therefore, bad times lie ahead for transatlantic unity. Even if in a year, after the elections to Congress, the Democrats take at least one chamber – the situation will not change. The USA will remain divided.

– Before moving on to the topic of Putin in China, I will dwell on the parade. This is the largest military parade in the history of China, dedicated to the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II. In your opinion, is this gigantic event another signal that China is ready to become the second (or even the first) superpower?

– There are several aspects here. It is clear that this is a demonstration: “We are almost as powerful as the United States.” The second aspect is the influence on allies and partners. Not everyone who came to Beijing loves China. Not everyone dreams of copying its system of one-party dictatorship. For example, the president of Turkey: for all his authoritarianism, he is not going to eliminate all other parties. But such “doubtful” allies must either be intimidated or bribed. An example is Pakistan.

A grand parade is not only about the number of tanks, but also about demonstrating their quality. It is a signal: “We have the technology.” Remember the recent clashes between India and Pakistan a few months ago. Five Indian planes were shot down – and not a single Pakistani one. And Pakistan’s planes are Chinese-made. Armaments are one of the richest markets in the world. China wants to show that its weapons are no worse than American ones. The planes are no worse. Tanks, artillery too. And all this has already been tested: first in India, now in Ukraine. So, we have a combination of three elements. The first is propaganda. The second is intimidation of allies who only pretend to sympathize with China. The third is the trade in arms and technology.

– From the picture we have from China, Putin at the current SCO summit feels much more confident, even more arrogant, than, say, a few months ago. Experts point out that at least one of the main reasons for this is Trump’s behavior. Yes, the dictator met with Xi, with Modi, but with Western leaders – not. And here Trump, in fact, breathed a “second ” life into him. And it turns out that the countries represented at this Asian forum see: the US president considers Putin a good partner, is conducting a dialogue with him, and Putin can refuse him – and US policy does not change from this. And then the logic is simple: “Probably, we should also listen to this signal – Putin has returned for good.”

– Undoubtedly, the meeting with Trump and his position on Putin made a great impression on the world. But there is another moment – ​​these are reports from the front. They come every day, and are almost always the same: “The village, conditionally, Mykhailivka has been captured by the Russians, the village of Petrovka has been captured, the village of Andriyivka has been lost…” and so on, endlessly. Yes, we report on downed helicopters, on a thousand destroyed invaders, on some burned warehouses. But the main thing – moving forward – is not happening. This creates the impression of our helplessness. And all this is further reinforced by Trump’s rhetoric. He constantly repeats the lie about “350 billion dollars of aid provided to Ukraine”. As a result, a picture emerges: both the West can do nothing and Ukraine can do nothing, although money is supposedly pouring in immeasurably. And we are still retreating. This is what shapes Putin’s current self-confidence.

– At this stage, what does Putin want from Xi Jinping, and what does Xi want from Putin?

– Moscow’s minimum program is that nothing changes. Everything remains as it is. The maximum program is that when one of the Americans or Europeans starts talking to Xi Jinping about Ukraine, he will dismiss it: “I’m not interested in it. Forget the topic, decide for yourself.” That’s the main thing. Everything else is trifles: some technologies, components for weapons. This is secondary. The main thing is that China does not jump off this position. So that there will never be any more congratulations to Ukraine on Independence Day, so that there are no hints that China wants to somehow serve peace, and so on.

– You mentioned that Trump pushed Modi into Xi’s arms. And didn’t he push him into Putin’s even tighter arms? Modi had a meeting with Putin. They were driving together in the same car, not even getting out for half an hour after arriving. The Indian leader posted a photo, captioning it something like: “Very happy to see my friend Putin.”

– India has an old strategic mindset: Russia is needed as a balance of power – against China, against someone else. And this idea has not gone anywhere. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of India has been one of its main ideologists for many years. This is a serious, stable trend in the political elite. Therefore, nothing extraordinary happened. And at the same time, perhaps Modi simply fulfilled Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for peacemaking. For India to act as a mediator or peacemaker would be a huge success.

– Zelenskyy already asked Modi to become a mediator, and there were no results then.

– Yes, there was no result. But why? Because before, Euro-Atlantic was doing this. The US and Europe acted as a united front. And now, thanks to Trump, there is chaos there: random steps, mercantilism, selfishness. So, now it is Modi who can play the role that Western allies used to play. And he is obviously trying to test the waters. Plus, Modi should have responded to Trump in kind, humiliated him the way he humiliated India. And the most effective way is this kind of “warm” meeting with Putin: half an hour in the car, friendly photos, hugs. It’s like a direct message to Trump: “You see, Donald, this is the result of your “water” foreign policy. I now have my own company – a big dragon and a polar bear. And you, be healthy, don’t cough.” In fact, Modi gave a signal: those sanctions, those losses that Trump imposed on India, can be quickly compensated for by cooperation with others. Maybe not completely, but the political message was clear.

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