Krystyna Kazakova21:55, 19.10.26

The Kremlin has proposed holding a trilateral summit in Shenzhen during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November.

US President Donald Trump has staked a significant part of his political reputation on the line in his quest to achieve peace in Ukraine, in cooperation with Vladimir Putin and on the Kremlin’s terms, journalist Owen Matthews notes in an article for The Spectator.

Matthews predicts that the Kremlin leader will still make small concessions, such as a partial ceasefire and the release of prisoners.

However, when it comes to serious issues, such as actually ending what Putin calls his “special military operation,” the Kremlin is likely to remain steadfast and ignore Trump’s specific requests while continuing to destroy Ukrainian cities.

The article indicates that a summit is planned in China with the participation of Xi Jinping, Putin, and Trump to discuss the details of the division of Ukraine according to the “Yalta model.” Matthews writes that it was agreed upon bypassing the Ukrainians.

Notably, the Kremlin proposed holding a trilateral summit in Shenzhen during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November.

“I think there have been talks about such a meeting. I don’t know if everything has been finally agreed upon,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Monday, October 19.

According to the journalist, the Kremlin’s strategic thinking is based on the notion that Kyiv is just a few months away from military, political, and economic collapse.

“While Russia’s bloody offensives in Donbas this year have been neutralized by Ukraine’s reassertion of control over territory in other sectors, Moscow’s escalating campaign against energy, logistics, and transportation infrastructure is certain to make many Ukrainian cities uninhabitable as winter approaches,” Matthews writes.

In his opinion, the main reason why the Kremlin refuses to back down from its main military goals, which have been unchanged since 2022, is the belief within Putin’s information bubble that victory is near.

The author of the article added that Putin senses desperation in Washington. The US president is facing difficulties on the eve of the midterm elections.

“He needs one of two things: either the price of diesel comes down, or failing that, someone to blame when it doesn’t,” Matthews said.

He added that the Kremlin leader was very happy to step in to help with the first, after Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel exports to world markets.

At the same time, the journalist emphasized that the volumes specified in this agreement are far from enough to influence the market. Moreover, Russia may not have the capacity to do so due to constant strikes by Ukrainian long-range drones.

“As for the ‘scapegoat’ for high fuel prices and who can be blamed for Trump’s likely crushing defeat in the midterm elections, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has found himself squarely in the spotlight,” Matthews noted.

However, in his opinion, blaming the Ukrainian president for the fuel price crisis, which was actually caused by Trump’s war against Iran, is the easy part.

The author of the article emphasized that in order for peace to reign in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s consent is needed.

“It will be much more difficult, not least because Trump’s main tactic during the negotiations has been to offer Putin increasingly large economic “garlic” in exchange for ending the war, with no “sticks” to punish his continued refusal to compromise,” he predicts.

According to Matthews, in a classic example of the principle of “show me the incentives and I’ll show you the behavior,” Trump effectively rewarded Putin for his intransigence. Read also:

The journalist suggested that the main contours of the agreement that will end the war are already clearly outlined:

“Recent talks between Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and senior Ukrainian delegates in Miami focused on a series of major economic deals that are expected to link Russia, Europe, and Ukraine into a network of cross-border business ties that will ensure peace.”

Matthews noted that Trump’s recent statements expressing solidarity with Putin will likely be seen over time as a major turning point in the war.

“But even though the world seems to be moving in the Kremlin’s direction, Putin could still screw things up with the same arrogant, over-ambitiousness that got him into the Ukrainian quagmire,” the author of the article did not rule out.

It is assumed that Putin is unlikely to agree to give up what his generals believe is an imminent major victory just to give Trump a small political boost.

Matthews predicted that Putin would likely stall for time. He could make a deal by reducing the scale of Russian attacks on ships in the Black Sea.

“But one thing is quite clear about Trump’s latest steps towards Russia and Ukraine. America chose Russia as the side on which the war would end, and thereby ensured this outcome,” the journalist stated.

(c)UNIAN 2026