Olga Koval21:53, 29.06.26
One of the key factors in Ukraine’s success was the break from dependence on Western arms limits.
Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections initially caused a wave of euphoria among Russian radicals, who expected that the complete cessation of American support would allow Moscow to finally destroy Ukrainian statehood.
The new White House administration did indeed block financial and military aid to Kyiv, accompanied by tough political pressure. However, as The American Prospect analyst Ryan Cooper notes, instead of an inevitable capitulation, the world saw a unique phenomenon: Ukraine seized the initiative.
Thanks to the mobilization of European partners, radical reform of the army, and an unprecedented leap in its own military-industrial complex, Kyiv not only survived, but also began to inflict systemic strategic defeats on the Russian Federation.
One of the key factors in Ukraine’s success has been the break from dependence on Western arms limits. The main advantage of Ukrainian long-range missiles and drones lies not only in their low cost, but also in the complete absence of any political restrictions on the geography of their application.
A striking example of a domestic breakthrough is the Flamingo cruise missile with a range of up to 3,000 kilometers. At a cost of less than $1 million, it demonstrates amazing efficiency compared to American counterparts like the Tomahawk, which costs $2.5 million with a shorter range (2,500 km).
At the same time, Ukraine has established itself as the absolute world leader in the field of unmanned technologies. Today, 95% of drones used are produced domestically. Production volumes are so large that they allow covering the enormous monthly needs of the front and even partially exporting products. Leading countries of the world, including the United States, are now forced to turn to Kyiv, adopting experience and purchasing ready-made technological solutions.
A war of attrition: strikes deep into Russia and logistics paralysis
The Ukrainian Air Force’s air campaign has reached a new level, shifting its focus to destroying strategic infrastructure deep behind enemy lines. The successful use of Flamingo missiles on targets in Cheboksary (600 miles from the border) and attacks on oil refineries on the outskirts of Moscow have demonstrated the helplessness of Russian air defense. The most recent massive drone strike, which took place on June 26, covered the area from the Russian capital to occupied Crimea, where a critical fuel shortage forced the invaders to declare a state of emergency. The devastation of the Russian oil industry has deprived the Kremlin of the opportunity for super-profits from the global surge in energy prices triggered by the US-Iran conflict.
Moreover, Ukrainian special services are carrying out operations of unprecedented audacity. Cooper recalls the elimination of Russian strategic bombers directly at air bases thousands of miles from the front line, where explosive drones were delivered in ordinary wooden boxes with the help of unsuspecting Russian civilian logisticians.
Systemic split: the internal state of armies and institutions
Having overcome last year’s crisis with a lack of infantry and the impossibility of rotations, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have optimized the command structure and training system. Domination in the air due to UAVs has allowed for regular rest of personnel. The country’s economic stability is maintained thanks to efforts on the ground and financial injections from the EU and the UK.
The Russian army has faced a moral and psychological collapse. Despite a monthly influx of 30,000 recruits, the huge losses (according to NATO estimates, the total losses of the Russian Federation have reached 1.5 million people, a third of whom are irretrievable) are neutralizing any effect of mobilization. In addition, the troops are eroding systemic corruption. Senior officers have completely lost real control over the battlefield, as units massively bribe commanders not to launch suicide attacks or falsify reports on occupied positions.
Economic Overheating and Historical Parallels for Putin
The Russian financial system is now beginning to come apart at the seams. Total militarization and the depletion of the working-age population have led to the most acute labor shortage in the history of the Russian Federation. Huge state spending is not being spent on creating new ones, but on the banal repair of the remnants of Soviet equipment from the Cold War, which are already almost exhausted. The economy is catastrophically overheated, and inflationary processes are being restrained only by a rigid interest rate of 14.25%.
The cautious and measured policy of the Joe Biden administration regarding the provision of weapons in 2023 was mistaken. If Kyiv had received the full arsenal of long-range ATACMS systems on time, the war could have been ended much earlier.
Today, Vladimir Putin faces a dilemma: declaring general mobilization will ultimately destroy the internal social contract and kill the economy. The Russian dictator often appeals to history, but he should remember the fate of Tsar Nicholas II, who also dragged the empire into a senseless and bloody war that ended with the collapse of the autocracy. If Putin does not start seeking peace, he risks repeating this ending, the analyst concludes.
Situation in Ukraine – latest events
During June, Ukraine carried out a record number of air attacks on Russian military-industrial complex facilities. According to the results of the analysis of the Agency, at least 13 military-industrial complex enterprises were hit this month, which was the absolute maximum since the beginning of 2026.
One of the latest targets hit was the Volgograd plant “Titan-Barricades”, which was attacked last Saturday. Although the Russian leadership has not officially revealed the name of the affected enterprise, the head of the Volgograd region Andrey Bocharov confirmed the destruction of production facilities at one of the local plants. According to him, one person was killed and 11 other employees were injured in the incident.
(C)UNIAN 2026