If Washington is not willing to send crucial armaments to Kyiv, then Zelensky’s situation is worse than his remaining allies feared

Owen Matthews

03 July 2025

Volodymyr Zelensky thought he had done everything right. When Donald Trump demanded he sign away Ukraine’s mineral rights in exchange for military aid, he did it. When the White House decided that offering Moscow an unconditional ceasefire was the only way to stop the war, Zelensky quickly acquiesced. When the US asked Ukraine to hold off using Nato military equipment against targets inside Russia, they agreed.

In the end it didn’t make any difference. This week Politico broke the news that the US Department of Defence had paused key weapons deliveries already agreed to and funded by Congress under the Biden administration; this leaves Ukrainian cities defenceless against Russian missile strikes and its troops dangerously low on ammunition.

Trump has already clearly signalled his opposition to future arms shipments from the US. But cutting off arms already promised and paid for seems cruel and gratuitous. “This decision was made to put America’s interests first following a DOD review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe,” explained deputy White House press secretary Anna Kelly. “The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned – just ask Iran.”

But drill down into the list of weapons withheld this week and the claim that the US is protecting its own dwindling supplies makes little sense. For a start, almost all the pledged weapons are located in American military stockpiles in Poland, not in the US. 

The Defence Department has blocked the transfer of 250 GMLRS missiles to Ukraine – yet Lockheed Martin makes 14,000 a year. Ukraine will receive 8,496 fewer rounds of 155 mm artillery shells – which is less than a week’s production by US industry. And it’s hard to see how holding back 25 Stinger missiles is going to help Make America Great Again.

There is some debate over whether the delivery freeze comes on the orders of the White House, or whether it’s a screw-up by the bean counters in America’s defence department. Indeed, just last week Trump signalled that he was willing to find some more Patriot batteries for Kyiv – the holy grail of missile defence that Ukraine so desperately needs as Russia ramps up its missile attacks to unprecedented levels of intensity and frequency.

But in the big picture it doesn’t matter. Long-term, Trump has made it clear that the US is out of the Ukraine weapons supply game, and he believes that the war must end in diplomacy. Sending more weapons to Kyiv, Trump apparently believes, will only add fuel to the conflict.

Trump is wrong, for one simple reason. Ukraine is currently fighting a defensive war on the ground, and slowly losing it in part because of a lack of firepower. Its only successful attacks are targeted at Russian airfields and military factories, and these strikes are undertaken using ingenious weapons of Ukraine’s own devising and manufacture. And Kyiv has signalled that it’s ready for an immediate ceasefire if Russia follows suit. Ukraine needs weapons to defend against continuous Russian attacks, not to prolong the war.

Ukraine’s biggest practical problem is that European promises to step into the breach and fill the gap left by the US have so far yielded little in the way of actual arms deliveries. European militaries have been hollowed out by years of budget cuts, and whatever meagre stockpiles existed three years ago have been quickly consumed in the killing fields of Donbas. 

Pledges to increase defence spending to five per cent of GDP agreed at the Nato summit earlier this month will boost Europe’s military industrial complex – indeed the market capitalisation of Rheinmetall, the German tank manufacturer, have risen above Volkswagen’s. But that extra investment will take years to make a difference.

Europe’s immediate answer has been to buy US arms and donate them to Ukraine. But if Washington is not able or willing to send crucial armaments to Kyiv, as this week’s withheld shipments suggests, then Zelensky’s situation is worse than his remaining allies feared.